Weekend Box Office

Box Office Guru Preview: Wide Open Race For #1 Spot This Weekend

Five films compete for box office crown.

by | October 11, 2007 | Comments

Five new films push their way into nationwide release on Friday hoping to challenge two-time champ The Rock making for what should be a free-for-all at the North American box office with many different studios having a realistic shot at claiming the number one spot. Among the top contenders are Sony’s crime thriller We Own the Night, the Lionsgate comedy Why Did I Get Married?, and the George Clooney vehicle Michael Clayton which expands nationally after its scorching debut in limited release. Adding to the mix are the costume drama Elizabeth: The Golden Age and the baseball tale The Final Season. The box office race should be a tight one with as many as four films likely to reach the low double digit millions.

Oscar nominated actors Mark Wahlberg and Joaquin Phoenix face off as brothers on different sides of the law in the new action thriller We Own the Night. The R-rated pic co-stars Robert Duvall and Eva Mendes and will target an adult audience with a slightly male skew. The former Marky Mark proved his box office pull last spring as the only major star in Shooter which bowed to $14.5M and a $5,176 average by targeting the same audience. Things will be more difficult this time because of the intense competition for mature audiences especially from Michael Clayton. But Night‘s biggest advantage over Michael is that it has two commercial stars instead of just one. The combo should lead to a slim edge at the cash registers.

Despite its awkward title, Night has been pushing itself as an action-packed thriller with faces people love to watch. Reviews have been mixed and with such a crowded field, it will be hard to stand out as a must-see option. Starpower should be the main factor here and showdowns between two solid actors are usually popular with ticket buyers. Opening in over 2,000 theaters, We Own the Night could debut to about $12M.


Phoenix and Wahlberg in We Own the Night

Taking on those boys with some machismo of his own, George Clooney heads into wide release with his legal drama Michael Clayton which Warner Bros. has drummed up plenty of awards buzz for. The R-rated pic bowed to a sizzling $47,994 average last weekend from its platform bow in the Clooney-friendly towns of New York, Los Angeles, and Toronto. This weekend, the thriller will face the real test when it enters every major market across the 50 states. Thanks to his political outspokenness, the Academy Award winning actor has become a polarizing figure. He could easily win an election to become mayor of Hollywood, but in other parts of the country people would gladly pay theaters to not play his movies.

Clayton will test his drawing power since the film has no other box office anchors in it. Co-stars Tom Wilkinson, Tilda Swinton, and Sydney Pollack are well-respected, but they don’t sell tickets. There is plenty of direct competition which is why the film got a head start a week early. Buzz from its red hot platform bow has spread helping to build interest. The crowd will consist of the same people that opened Syriana to $11.7M, The Black Dahlia to $10M, and Zodiac to $13.4M. Night will take away some males and Elizabeth will steal some females so a huge gross will be hard to find. But over the long-term the film could have legs. Expanding into 2,511 locations, Michael Clayton stands as the widest of the new offerings and may capture around $11M over the Friday-to-Sunday period.


Clooney as Clayton

Tyler Perry‘s latest relationship comedy Why Did I Get Married? finds trouble brewing when four married couples come together for an annual winter getaway. The writer/director’s films have always tapped into his loyal fan base with African American women at the core. His 2005 smash Diary of a Mad Black Woman surprised the industry with its first-place debut with $21.9M and a $14,771 average and was followed a year later by Madea’s Family Reunion which grew bigger with a $30M launch. Perry’s last pic Daddy’s Little Girls, also a February release, saw more modest numbers with a $11.2M opening as the filmmaker did not star in the pic.

Married does not have the promotional value of Black History Month or the help of Presidents Day which Girls had early this year. However, Perry’s new film will not face any direct competitors for its target audience. Girls had to face the second weekend of Eddie Murphy‘s hit comedy Norbit which offered some audience overlap. Plus Married boasts more starpower with Perry back on screen and an added boost will come from Janet Jackson who is always a strong draw at the box office with the target audience every time she makes a rare appearance in a movie. The PG-13 film from Lionsgate is unlike anything else in the marketplace right now and with few buzzworthy films aimed at black moviegoers in recent months, it should successfully connect. Debuting in 2,011 theaters, Why Did I Get Married? might open with roughly $12M this weekend.


Tyler Perry’s Why Did I Get Married?
Another female-driven film, but taking place centuries ago and across the pond, is the historical drama Elizabeth: The Golden Age which finds Cate Blanchett reprising the role of the British Queen which made her a star nine years ago. The PG-13 pic also finds Geoffrey Rush returning and adds Clive Owen to the mix telling the story of the later years of the monarch’s 16th century reign when threats from Spain and a possible love affair at home led to new challenges. Though at the core a costume drama like its predecessor, Universal’s marketing has played up the action and adventure elements in hopes of attracting men looking for warfare and battle scenes. That may backfire when word gets out that there is actually very little action on screen.

The first Elizabeth opened in limited release in November 1998 and rolled through awards season that winter eventually reaching an impressive $30M while never playing in more than 600 theaters. It also bagged seven Oscar nominations including Best Picture. Now the studio is hoping that a built-in audience will want to take another trip to the past. Though the first was an acclaimed picture, no real demand ever surfaced for a sequel. So it will be tough for Golden Age at the box office especially with all the competition. Female-led dramas often struggle in the marketplace since it is often too hard for adult women to drag men with them to the multiplex for these stories. New films from Clooney and Wahlberg offer more cross-gender appeal. Ordering her troops into 2,000 theaters on Friday, Elizabeth: The Golden Age might take home about $8M over the three-day period.


Cate Blanchett and Geoffrey Rush in Elizabeth: The Golden Age

Likely to strike out at the box office this weekend is the high school baseball pic The Final Season which stars Sean Astin, Larry Miller, and Powers Boothe. The PG-rated film offers no starpower and has generated very little excitement for itself in the marketplace. Most sports fans interested in the national pastime will tune into the playoffs on their television sets this weekend. A quick trip to DVD is assured for this one which has no guarantee to clinch a spot in the top ten. Opening in about 1,000 theaters, a weekend take of just $2M could be in the works.


The Final Season

Among holdovers, The Game Plan surprised the industry two weeks in a row by taking the number one spot. Given its strong legs and continued lack of competition for the family audience and younger teens, a third round on top is not totally out of the question. Should all the newbies eat into each other and all fail to reach the $12M mark, the Disney kidpic by default may stay put. A 25% decline would give The Game Plan a third weekend tally of $12.5M pushing the 17-day total to a solid $58M.

Paramount and DreamWorks were caught by surprise by the lack of strength for the opening of the Ben Stiller comedy The Heartbreak Kid. With nothing to keep it afloat, a 45% decline might be in order especially since adults will be distracted by a wide assortment of other options. That would give the Farrelly brothers a sophomore session of about $7.5M and a cume of only $25.5M after ten days.

LAST YEAR: Sony used the Friday the 13th before Halloween to launch the sequel to one of the most successful horror films in history and captured the number one spot. The Grudge 2 bowed on top with $20.8M accounting for more than half of its $39.1M final. Eventual Oscar champ The Departed slipped to second with $19M easing only 29% for Warner Bros. The Robin Williams political comedy Man of the Year debuted in third with $12.3M before finishing with a disappointing $37.3M for Universal. Rounding out the top five were the Sony toon Open Season with $11.1M and New Line’s fright franchise flick Texas Chainsaw Massacre: The Beginning with $7.5M for a steep 60% plunge. Opening with weak results in sixth was the action pic The Marine with $7.1M on its way to $18.8M for Fox. The religious-themed drama One Night with the King bowed to $4.1M with a good $4,518 average and finished with $13.4M for 8X.

Author: Gitesh Pandya, www.BoxOfficeGuru.com

Tag Cloud

TCA Winter 2020 YA Syfy comedies Emmy Nominations Video Games Cannes Horror Christmas zombies finale Red Carpet festival fast and furious TCA Awards Rocketman DirecTV Nominations The Witch Sundance cars GLAAD 24 frames vampires doctor who james bond comiccon telelvision Superheroes BET Awards cancelled women Warner Bros. comics Pet Sematary high school Reality Competition First Reviews Opinion superman TNT Teen A24 45 Marvel Studios Photos Fox Searchlight reviews twilight stop motion space deadpool mission: impossible Sony Pictures new star wars movies spy thriller scorecard Rock anthology Kids & Family Hulu cooking Starz Family boxoffice Arrowverse Interview First Look Martial Arts Masterpiece Ovation A&E spain Drama OWN cancelled TV series Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt archives dark transformers San Diego Comic-Con Oscars anime universal monsters green book werewolf mockumentary cats news E3 true crime casting Discovery Channel National Geographic binge sag awards DC streaming service Musicals natural history dc 72 Emmy Awards TLC unscripted 78th Annual Golden Globe Awards tv talk CBS All Access SundanceTV jamie lee curtis witnail Vudu ITV halloween tv 2018 WGN Best and Worst Ghostbusters DC Comics Extras technology SDCC Sci-Fi nfl Television Critics Association BBC One TV Land GIFs comic king kong SXSW crossover spanish language Watching Series Black History Month south america ghosts NBC VICE hispanic rotten critics psychological thriller IFC Films HBO Max japanese RT21 Tarantino sports 2017 godzilla Turner Classic Movies VH1 Alien Pop politics streaming Disney Plus Comics on TV TruTV TCA 2017 Trivia Pop TV Cartoon Network Writers Guild of America independent venice blockbusters emmy awards supernatural Paramount Network game show docuseries social media comic books Crunchyroll science fiction 99% zero dark thirty spider-man superhero Certified Fresh The Walking Dead BAFTA franchise hist free movies trailers Paramount Plus 93rd Oscars The Arrangement what to watch PlayStation Anna Paquin stoner blockbuster thriller Travel Channel dogs Schedule Lifetime Christmas movies 2021 Mary Poppins Returns robots Peacock sitcom monster movies Britbox justice league Winners 2015 nature cartoon Set visit serial killer adventure Amazon Studios BET 2016 pirates of the caribbean canceled TV shows Holiday The Walt Disney Company kaiju TV One Grammys CMT cops Toys Infographic jurassic park canceled teaser TV black Holidays Comic Book concert Black Mirror ABC Family Character Guide X-Men Apple TV Plus Rocky Spectrum Originals latino Columbia Pictures documentaries Dark Horse Comics Lifetime Star Wars Sneak Peek dceu Ellie Kemper FXX Mystery based on movie AMC Mary Tyler Moore criterion Hallmark BBC Nat Geo GoT rt archives crime drama Box Office ABC Marvel Television remakes CW Seed Fall TV australia Amazon Prime Video Pixar 2019 a nightmare on elm street 21st Century Fox nbcuniversal book 71st Emmy Awards Cosplay richard e. Grant Women's History Month documentary TCA versus harry potter Superheroe El Rey Shondaland OneApp directors Film Festival FX on Hulu CNN USA Network animated name the review Biopics 20th Century Fox Acorn TV Pirates boxing worst Country biography Netflix television PaleyFest See It Skip It hollywood Showtime DC Universe Disney Spike Animation ViacomCBS Endgame cults reboot award winner Sundance TV Apple MCU History Disney+ Disney Plus Tubi festivals Hear Us Out Election VOD Tumblr Emmys Polls and Games joker Stephen King Pride Month dragons cancelled television ESPN cancelled TV shows APB CBS Marvel razzies dramedy video on demand E! Lucasfilm scary movies mutant crime thriller sequels crime Disney Channel New York Comic Con Fantasy chucky Sundance Now video obituary prank Paramount ratings strong female leads medical drama hidden camera Baby Yoda child's play Chilling Adventures of Sabrina screenings police drama Turner Universal President miniseries ID golden globe awards quibi Summer Mary poppins films indiana jones renewed TV shows LGBT theme song BBC America toy story all-time IFC Comedy Esquire satire TV renewals screen actors guild Binge Guide Avengers TIFF french YouTube Premium Trailer Music Podcast spinoff facebook Television Academy PBS American Society of Cinematographers Lionsgate Song of Ice and Fire historical drama psycho Elton John heist movie breaking bad Apple TV+ rom-coms Logo laika series Heroines Action indie children's TV Premiere Dates christmas movies die hard Freeform Reality movies golden globes Nickelodeon Shudder Disney streaming service adaptation Chernobyl parents Legendary zombie foreign football LGBTQ Trophy Talk MSNBC aliens composers rotten movies we love ABC Signature saw TBS Amazon war revenge blaxploitation Fox News period drama Adult Swim FOX toronto worst movies Calendar The Purge Tomatazos elevated horror Funimation talk show Broadway Mindy Kaling TCM book adaptation Winter TV Hallmark Christmas movies 4/20 kids Captain marvel popular movie WarnerMedia 2020 Classic Film HBO Go 007 stand-up comedy Super Bowl political drama travel discovery Star Trek NYCC spanish Film USA game of thrones Academy Awards halloween Awards Tour Awards MTV Quiz Thanksgiving Comedy Central Food Network DGA disaster sequel Spring TV docudrama fresh Creative Arts Emmys Western RT History diversity YouTube Red Walt Disney Pictures Valentine's Day slashers HBO romantic comedy YouTube best kong Mudbound Brie Larson Exclusive Video cinemax Amazon Prime singing competition FX Marathons italian romance batman classics Netflix Christmas movies Year in Review The Academy Epix Countdown Rom-Com Crackle Musical Bravo asian-american The CW