Weekend Box Office

Box Office Guru Preview: Wide Open Race For #1 Spot This Weekend

Five films compete for box office crown.

by | October 11, 2007 | Comments

Five new films push their way into nationwide release on Friday hoping to challenge two-time champ The Rock making for what should be a free-for-all at the North American box office with many different studios having a realistic shot at claiming the number one spot. Among the top contenders are Sony’s crime thriller We Own the Night, the Lionsgate comedy Why Did I Get Married?, and the George Clooney vehicle Michael Clayton which expands nationally after its scorching debut in limited release. Adding to the mix are the costume drama Elizabeth: The Golden Age and the baseball tale The Final Season. The box office race should be a tight one with as many as four films likely to reach the low double digit millions.

Oscar nominated actors Mark Wahlberg and Joaquin Phoenix face off as brothers on different sides of the law in the new action thriller We Own the Night. The R-rated pic co-stars Robert Duvall and Eva Mendes and will target an adult audience with a slightly male skew. The former Marky Mark proved his box office pull last spring as the only major star in Shooter which bowed to $14.5M and a $5,176 average by targeting the same audience. Things will be more difficult this time because of the intense competition for mature audiences especially from Michael Clayton. But Night‘s biggest advantage over Michael is that it has two commercial stars instead of just one. The combo should lead to a slim edge at the cash registers.

Despite its awkward title, Night has been pushing itself as an action-packed thriller with faces people love to watch. Reviews have been mixed and with such a crowded field, it will be hard to stand out as a must-see option. Starpower should be the main factor here and showdowns between two solid actors are usually popular with ticket buyers. Opening in over 2,000 theaters, We Own the Night could debut to about $12M.


Phoenix and Wahlberg in We Own the Night

Taking on those boys with some machismo of his own, George Clooney heads into wide release with his legal drama Michael Clayton which Warner Bros. has drummed up plenty of awards buzz for. The R-rated pic bowed to a sizzling $47,994 average last weekend from its platform bow in the Clooney-friendly towns of New York, Los Angeles, and Toronto. This weekend, the thriller will face the real test when it enters every major market across the 50 states. Thanks to his political outspokenness, the Academy Award winning actor has become a polarizing figure. He could easily win an election to become mayor of Hollywood, but in other parts of the country people would gladly pay theaters to not play his movies.

Clayton will test his drawing power since the film has no other box office anchors in it. Co-stars Tom Wilkinson, Tilda Swinton, and Sydney Pollack are well-respected, but they don’t sell tickets. There is plenty of direct competition which is why the film got a head start a week early. Buzz from its red hot platform bow has spread helping to build interest. The crowd will consist of the same people that opened Syriana to $11.7M, The Black Dahlia to $10M, and Zodiac to $13.4M. Night will take away some males and Elizabeth will steal some females so a huge gross will be hard to find. But over the long-term the film could have legs. Expanding into 2,511 locations, Michael Clayton stands as the widest of the new offerings and may capture around $11M over the Friday-to-Sunday period.


Clooney as Clayton

Tyler Perry‘s latest relationship comedy Why Did I Get Married? finds trouble brewing when four married couples come together for an annual winter getaway. The writer/director’s films have always tapped into his loyal fan base with African American women at the core. His 2005 smash Diary of a Mad Black Woman surprised the industry with its first-place debut with $21.9M and a $14,771 average and was followed a year later by Madea’s Family Reunion which grew bigger with a $30M launch. Perry’s last pic Daddy’s Little Girls, also a February release, saw more modest numbers with a $11.2M opening as the filmmaker did not star in the pic.

Married does not have the promotional value of Black History Month or the help of Presidents Day which Girls had early this year. However, Perry’s new film will not face any direct competitors for its target audience. Girls had to face the second weekend of Eddie Murphy‘s hit comedy Norbit which offered some audience overlap. Plus Married boasts more starpower with Perry back on screen and an added boost will come from Janet Jackson who is always a strong draw at the box office with the target audience every time she makes a rare appearance in a movie. The PG-13 film from Lionsgate is unlike anything else in the marketplace right now and with few buzzworthy films aimed at black moviegoers in recent months, it should successfully connect. Debuting in 2,011 theaters, Why Did I Get Married? might open with roughly $12M this weekend.


Tyler Perry’s Why Did I Get Married?
Another female-driven film, but taking place centuries ago and across the pond, is the historical drama Elizabeth: The Golden Age which finds Cate Blanchett reprising the role of the British Queen which made her a star nine years ago. The PG-13 pic also finds Geoffrey Rush returning and adds Clive Owen to the mix telling the story of the later years of the monarch’s 16th century reign when threats from Spain and a possible love affair at home led to new challenges. Though at the core a costume drama like its predecessor, Universal’s marketing has played up the action and adventure elements in hopes of attracting men looking for warfare and battle scenes. That may backfire when word gets out that there is actually very little action on screen.

The first Elizabeth opened in limited release in November 1998 and rolled through awards season that winter eventually reaching an impressive $30M while never playing in more than 600 theaters. It also bagged seven Oscar nominations including Best Picture. Now the studio is hoping that a built-in audience will want to take another trip to the past. Though the first was an acclaimed picture, no real demand ever surfaced for a sequel. So it will be tough for Golden Age at the box office especially with all the competition. Female-led dramas often struggle in the marketplace since it is often too hard for adult women to drag men with them to the multiplex for these stories. New films from Clooney and Wahlberg offer more cross-gender appeal. Ordering her troops into 2,000 theaters on Friday, Elizabeth: The Golden Age might take home about $8M over the three-day period.


Cate Blanchett and Geoffrey Rush in Elizabeth: The Golden Age

Likely to strike out at the box office this weekend is the high school baseball pic The Final Season which stars Sean Astin, Larry Miller, and Powers Boothe. The PG-rated film offers no starpower and has generated very little excitement for itself in the marketplace. Most sports fans interested in the national pastime will tune into the playoffs on their television sets this weekend. A quick trip to DVD is assured for this one which has no guarantee to clinch a spot in the top ten. Opening in about 1,000 theaters, a weekend take of just $2M could be in the works.


The Final Season

Among holdovers, The Game Plan surprised the industry two weeks in a row by taking the number one spot. Given its strong legs and continued lack of competition for the family audience and younger teens, a third round on top is not totally out of the question. Should all the newbies eat into each other and all fail to reach the $12M mark, the Disney kidpic by default may stay put. A 25% decline would give The Game Plan a third weekend tally of $12.5M pushing the 17-day total to a solid $58M.

Paramount and DreamWorks were caught by surprise by the lack of strength for the opening of the Ben Stiller comedy The Heartbreak Kid. With nothing to keep it afloat, a 45% decline might be in order especially since adults will be distracted by a wide assortment of other options. That would give the Farrelly brothers a sophomore session of about $7.5M and a cume of only $25.5M after ten days.

LAST YEAR: Sony used the Friday the 13th before Halloween to launch the sequel to one of the most successful horror films in history and captured the number one spot. The Grudge 2 bowed on top with $20.8M accounting for more than half of its $39.1M final. Eventual Oscar champ The Departed slipped to second with $19M easing only 29% for Warner Bros. The Robin Williams political comedy Man of the Year debuted in third with $12.3M before finishing with a disappointing $37.3M for Universal. Rounding out the top five were the Sony toon Open Season with $11.1M and New Line’s fright franchise flick Texas Chainsaw Massacre: The Beginning with $7.5M for a steep 60% plunge. Opening with weak results in sixth was the action pic The Marine with $7.1M on its way to $18.8M for Fox. The religious-themed drama One Night with the King bowed to $4.1M with a good $4,518 average and finished with $13.4M for 8X.

Author: Gitesh Pandya, www.BoxOfficeGuru.com

Tag Cloud

versus biography period drama Super Bowl cooking halloween Binge Guide SXSW renewed TV shows Nat Geo scary movies mutant President Lionsgate Netflix Christmas movies First Reviews MCU Anna Paquin critics TV renewals New York Comic Con YA sports Premiere Dates Walt Disney Pictures Box Office Vudu Horror spy thriller Turner facebook Elton John Pirates slashers dark Sony Pictures DC Comics romantic comedy elevated horror TV Land Film Festival Martial Arts Holiday Family parents diversity natural history Lucasfilm El Rey spinoff BBC America Kids & Family TCA Winter 2020 The Purge anime Teen dragons cartoon Epix WarnerMedia Drama Mary Tyler Moore FOX Quiz screen actors guild Musicals FX on Hulu richard e. Grant Television Academy zombie psycho documentaries Mary poppins composers Winners Creative Arts Emmys Emmy Nominations golden globes Warner Bros. ABC Family HBO Go Apple TV+ Amazon Prime 2015 Nickelodeon news science fiction spanish language Travel Channel Marvel Superheroe Chernobyl SundanceTV christmas movies TLC quibi historical drama First Look 2019 Cannes sag awards American Society of Cinematographers 71st Emmy Awards docudrama joker cancelled TV shows Crackle VOD award winner festivals dogs Crunchyroll Trophy Talk casting RT History psychological thriller discovery based on movie Podcast asian-american Britbox Hear Us Out Comedy Central Academy Awards Set visit supernatural teaser Marvel Studios Mystery X-Men Pride Month TCM rotten movies we love anthology cancelled comic History IFC Ellie Kemper Trivia sequel Mary Poppins Returns Sundance Now Shudder Pop TV cinemax Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt Pop Spike Pet Sematary criterion zero dark thirty free movies Funimation Summer adventure Disney Adult Swim game of thrones Acorn TV Stephen King CBS All Access A&E true crime Brie Larson Certified Fresh Interview Spring TV travel indie Red Carpet Ovation Film nature Comic Book crime drama batman Hulu Showtime Song of Ice and Fire canceled TV shows finale Sundance TV DC Universe TIFF Fantasy TruTV Spectrum Originals directors crossover GoT FXX disaster animated Writers Guild of America ratings best Amazon USA Network films children's TV OneApp Musical comedies Columbia Pictures hist medical drama FX doctor who Valentine's Day comiccon Rocketman police drama BBC One Holidays National Geographic Disney streaming service TV Star Wars USA Rocky Action indiana jones Peacock witnail Oscars Chilling Adventures of Sabrina Tumblr Countdown streaming jamie lee curtis MTV transformers franchise The Arrangement Star Trek Arrowverse Classic Film Mudbound YouTube cats mission: impossible dc 20th Century Fox Opinion 45 latino ITV ghosts stoner Avengers PaleyFest Captain marvel Heroines television TBS Black History Month harry potter name the review Best and Worst PBS Hallmark Video Games PlayStation blockbuster Hallmark Christmas movies A24 stand-up comedy DC streaming service independent foreign 21st Century Fox Food Network video 007 zombies movies blaxploitation OWN CW Seed Biopics 24 frames adaptation Shondaland Cartoon Network hispanic technology cars Calendar cults Character Guide NYCC Tubi Marvel Television DGA Polls and Games Year in Review crime thriller war E3 Superheroes RT21 Christmas Ghostbusters mockumentary movie CBS Rom-Com HBO Syfy CMT universal monsters political drama DirecTV Tarantino Apple kids Disney Plus TCA 2017 die hard Logo breaking bad robots Masterpiece WGN Women's History Month Rock Cosplay Bravo Disney+ Disney Plus sitcom strong female leads The CW reboot werewolf BBC Marathons screenings all-time 2017 Freeform dceu Tomatazos Emmys Dark Horse Comics reviews Mindy Kaling justice league GIFs Photos Schedule SDCC comics Infographic space Grammys Awards Tour TNT HBO Max BAFTA APB LGBTQ Nominations toy story BET Country IFC Films Music cops Reality Competition E! NBC singing competition Trailer binge VICE See It Skip It Black Mirror MSNBC CNN Pixar social media a nightmare on elm street Esquire video on demand boxoffice documentary miniseries Fox News Sneak Peek YouTube Red concert spain tv talk unscripted LGBT Watching Series 2018 Amazon Studios dramedy 4/20 Lifetime 2020 south america Universal TCA thriller Netflix canceled Amazon Prime Video Paramount series Endgame Fall TV crime Sci-Fi child's play theme song Baby Yoda ESPN Animation Toys Lifetime Christmas movies romance Thanksgiving 2016 Discovery Channel vampires Election satire GLAAD Sundance The Walking Dead cancelled TV series Disney Channel book The Witch AMC ABC what to watch Apple TV Plus Turner Classic Movies Awards twilight Comics on TV Western Comedy green book aliens cancelled television Paramount Network game show politics Winter TV chucky talk show spider-man serial killer BET Awards San Diego Comic-Con Starz Reality revenge Extras VH1 YouTube Premium