Weekend Box Office

Box Office Guru Preview: 30 Days of Night Gets Halloween Started Early

by | October 18, 2007 | Comments

Competition, or a lack of it, will be the deciding factor at the North American box office this weekend for the half-dozen new releases that studios are packing into already overcrowded multiplexes. Leading the way is the horror film 30 Days of Night followed by the sports comedy The Comebacks which both will be targeting the teens and young adults that Hollywood has been ignoring in recent weeks. Mature adults who already have a wide selection of serious dramas to choose from will be served up three more – Reese Witherspoon‘s Rendition, Ben Affleck‘s Gone Baby Gone, and Halle Berry‘s Things We Lost in the Fire. With far too many films aiming for the same finite audience segment, some are sure to eat into the potential of others.

Sony will monopolize the horror crowd looking for a scare before Halloween with its gorefest 30 Days of Night which tells of vampires that attack a small town in northern Alaska during its annual sunless period. The R-rated film prominently informs moviegoers in its marketing that it is based on a graphic novel hoping to tap into a little bit of the excitement generated by 300 last spring. The first eight months of this year were brutal to R-rated horror films with none reaching number one and high-profile franchise flicks like Hostel II, 28 Weeks Later, and The Hills Have Eyes 2 all failing to reach $10M on opening weekend. But the Halloween remake over Labor Day weekend changed all that and was followed three weeks later by another top spot debut from horror-action hybrid Resident Evil: Extinction. But those have died out so 30 Days stands as the only creepfest at a time when scary movies are in demand. Attacking 2,700 theaters, 30 Days of Night should easily top the charts and could bite into around $19M over the weekend.


30 Days of Night

Fox spoofs the world of sports films with its new comedy The Comebacks which will target adolescents either too young for 30 Days or uninterested in scary movies. With so many mature stories hogging up screens, the market can certainly use a dose of immature humor right about now. The Comebacks is the first viable PG-13 comedy aimed at teens since fellow sports comedy Balls of Fury launched at the end of August. After a mid-week debut, that pic bowed to $11.4M over three days and Comebacks will play to many of the same folks. And with seventeen R-rated films opening wide over the last eight weeks, there has been little to celebrate for the under-17 crowd. Sure The Comebacks looks dumb, but dumb can sell. Add in a trim running time of under 90 minutes and commercial prospects are not bad. This is disposable entertainment for 14-year-olds. It will draw attention upfront, and be forgotten two weeks from now. Thanks to a lack of direct competition, The Comebacks could debut with about $11M from 2,800 sites.


The Comebacks

Leading the charge for the 30-plus crowd this weekend is Reese Witherspoon who headlines the political thriller Rendition from New Line. The R-rated drama finds the Oscar winner playing a woman whose Egyptian-born husband is captured by the CIA after being suspected of being a terrorist. Jake Gyllenhaal and Meryl Streep add to the cast. Rendition follows The Kingdom and In the Valley of Elah as military-themed films this fall with connections to the Middle East. Audiences will want only so much of this content. Witherspoon will have her starpower put to the test since she is the only major commercial star here and she is outside of her safety zone of romantic comedies. The film will play to mature adults and will have to compete not only with this weekend’s other new dramas, but also with an assortment of holdovers already playing to the same audience. Reviews have been mixed which will also make things difficult. Debuting in roughly 2,200 locations, Rendition may capture about $9M over the Friday-to-Sunday period.


Reese Witherspoon and Peter Sarsgaard in Rendition

Ben Affleck makes his directorial debut with the crime thriller Gone Baby Gone which stars his brother Casey in the lead role. The Miramax release also stars Morgan Freeman, Ed Harris, and Michelle Monaghan and carries a R rating. Reviews have been good which will come as a shocker to those that look at this movie as nothing more than Daredevil getting to hop into the director’s chair. Reese, Joaquin, George, Cate, and Halle will all be cutting into the adult pie which can only expand by a certain amount. The marketing push has been highlighting the film as being from the author of Mystic River in hopes of finding those who loved that other Boston-set fall crime drama. An invite to the top five may not arrive for Ben. Opening in approximately 1,500 theaters, Gone Baby Gone could collect about $6M this weekend.


Freeman, Affleck and Monaghan in Gone Baby Gone
Yet another new option for adults looking for serious fare is the Halle BerryBenicio Del Toro starrer Things We Lost in the Fire. The Paramount release about a widow who seeks comfort from her dead husband’s drug-addicted friend will play to a mature audience and skew more female. The R-rated film has generated some good early reviews and both leads have Oscars on their shelves, but it will not be enough to compete with the other films targeting the same crowd. Berry showed in April that she can only open a picture so much when her thriller Perfect Stranger bowed to a $4,211 average even though A-lister Bruce Willis co-starred. With a not-so-wide release in about 1,000 theaters this weekend, Things We Lost in the Fire might debut with around $3M.


Halle Berry and Benicio Del Toro in Things We Lost in the Fire

Freestyle Releasing has booked the few remaining empty screens out there for its teen thriller Sarah Landon and the Paranormal Hour. As one of the only PG-rated suspense pics ever made, the film will try to attract younger teenagers not interested in sports-themed comedies. With only 1,100 theaters, a quiet marketing campaign, no stars, and zero buzz, a weak debut of about $1M could result.


Sarah Landon and the Paranormal Hour

After a potent number one debut, Tyler Perry‘s hit comedy Why Did I Get Married? should suffer a big fall in its second weekend if history is any indicator. Sophomore drops for the filmmaker’s previous offerings include 50% for Diary of a Mad Black Woman, 58% for Madea’s Family Reunion, and 57% for Daddy’s Little Girls. Lionsgate should see a 50% fall to about $10M this weekend giving the ensemble relationship tale $37M in ten days.

Disney’s The Game Plan once again has no new competition for the kiddie audience. Why studios have programmed so many serious adult dramas into this month and no other good family films is anyone’s guess. A 35% dip would leave The Rock with $7M and an impressive cume of $68M after 24 days.

Both Sony’s We Own the Night and the Warner Bros. thriller Michael Clayton will have to fight extra hard in order to compete with the new releases gunning for their customers. Night looks to slide more and fall by 45% while the strongly reviewed Clayton could ease by 40% with both films grossing roughly $6M over the weekend. That would lead to ten-day totals of $20M and $21M, respectively.

LAST YEAR: Just two months after the release of the similarly-themed magician pic The Illusionist, Buena Vista still managed to score a number one bow for The Prestige which opened with $14.8M on its way to $53.1M. Martin Scorsese‘s The Departed enjoyed a strong hold and ranked second with $13.5M in its third frame. Debuting in third was Clint Eastwood‘s war saga Flags of Our Fathers with $10.2M leading to a disappointing $33.6M final for Paramount. Sony’s animated hit Open Season ranked fourth with $8.2M. Rounding out the top five was rival family film Flicka with $7.7M for Fox on its way to only $21M. Also premiering in the top ten was Sony’s Marie Antoinette with $5.4M which led to a final tally of just $16M.

Author: Gitesh Pandya, www.BoxOfficeGuru.com

Tag Cloud

green book Rocketman dragons richard e. Grant TV Chilling Adventures of Sabrina zombie Video Games Warner Bros. talk show E! TruTV Starz Holidays toy story Netflix nature SundanceTV TBS RT21 History sports VICE Anna Paquin historical drama Action 2017 cults LGBTQ ghosts DGA TNT Schedule El Rey Winter TV Heroines cars political drama ratings Paramount cooking Binge Guide Sundance Now Fantasy Awards Tour Shondaland HBO 45 Emmys Cartoon Network Infographic Year in Review FX RT History finale ABC Family spinoff The CW CMT GIFs Apple Creative Arts Emmys Writers Guild of America Disney Channel tv talk Family mutant Food Network Country Women's History Month Spring TV Musical Kids & Family Mystery golden globes natural history supernatural Quiz anthology Trivia children's TV biography MTV Rocky CBS All Access YouTube Premium Fall TV adventure spy thriller streaming CNN justice league Pop Marathons Countdown Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt X-Men festivals Musicals mockumentary Hulu Shudder sequel American Society of Cinematographers police drama TIFF binge San Diego Comic-Con See It Skip It Box Office vampires Logo Elton John spider-man IFC science fiction Christmas ITV Comedy Central OWN VH1 kids Britbox Showtime Mary poppins social media casting Spectrum Originals Mary Poppins Returns dramedy Grammys Vudu 20th Century Fox Interview Red Carpet Esquire romance Lucasfilm Tarantino Cannes A&E Marvel Horror Lifetime Set visit Paramount Network revenge crime thriller psycho Black Mirror Photos period drama Martial Arts Oscars Adult Swim SXSW Comic Book space facebook Columbia Pictures comiccon Masterpiece Amazon National Geographic Comedy Thanksgiving quibi FOX war 2018 Sci-Fi Nominations TCM 2019 Nickelodeon jamie lee curtis CBS BBC America Nat Geo Comics on TV Rock NYCC Best and Worst technology Star Wars Syfy Biopics MSNBC Universal zero dark thirty APB robots Pirates Disney animated medical drama Trailer strong female leads TCA 2017 SDCC WarnerMedia miniseries Lionsgate true crime DC streaming service anime Brie Larson adaptation Mary Tyler Moore YA Captain marvel Awards comic PaleyFest TV Land IFC Films dc GLAAD witnail aliens Bravo Freeform Certified Fresh YouTube Red ABC Animation NBC GoT Polls and Games serial killer CW Seed movies DC Comics Fox News WGN DC Universe theme song Character Guide teaser Teen Chernobyl TCA cats DirecTV Pixar crime drama singing competition dceu travel Film crossover blaxploitation FXX Song of Ice and Fire television First Look E3 2016 The Witch politics Mudbound diversity discovery Super Bowl doctor who BBC harry potter Extras Star Trek TLC Ovation Ghostbusters Amazon Prime Video unscripted composers Superheroes Opinion Tomatazos Toys Western Epix PBS Premiere Dates BET game show Calendar zombies Crackle thriller Superheroe Amazon Prime Pet Sematary Film Festival Election President Sundance Trophy Talk Podcast 24 frames docudrama Cosplay what to watch psychological thriller Mindy Kaling Tumblr Winners 21st Century Fox The Arrangement Music Valentine's Day Rom-Com HBO Max cinemax Pride Month Reality ESPN USA LGBT AMC USA Network Watching Series sitcom cops MCU award winner Drama Reality Competition Acorn TV Ellie Kemper hist crime Stephen King book disaster Summer Dark Horse Comics series Walt Disney Pictures based on movie 2015 007 boxoffice Spike elevated horror New York Comic Con Disney streaming service Sneak Peek Emmy Nominations transformers Sony Pictures