Box Office Guru Preview: Four New Players Join The Game

21, Superhero Movie, Stop-Loss, and Run, Fat Boy, Run play for box office pot.

by | March 27, 2008 | Comments

Four new releases take a gamble debuting in theaters across North America hoping to hit the jackpot with audiences. The blackjack drama 21 and the spoof comedy Superhero Movie lead the way and will try their best to reach the number one spot. Other choices for ticket buyers include the soldier drama Stop-Loss and the marathon comedy Run, Fat Boy, Run in what should be another down weekend for the industry.

Kevin Spacey leads a team of math wizards from M.I.T. to a life of card-counting riches in Las Vegas in the new Sony pic 21. The PG-13 flick stars Jim Sturgess, Kate Bosworth, and Laurence Fishburne and is based on a true story. Teens and young adults will be the target audience here as well as card sharks everywhere. The marketing has been slick and even though the film is not all that high on starpower, the subject matter and the look should help it connect with audiences. The studio has given 21 a big push and it should play as something new for young adults to get excited about instead of the same tired old formula. Competition will be a factor though, given that some of the other new flicks will appeal to the same age range. Opening in more than 2,500 locations, 21 could debut with about $15M.

Kevin Spacey and Jim Sturgess in 21

The spoof comedy, the movie staple that won’t go away, returns again with the new film Superhero Movie from MGM and The Weinstein Company. Rated PG-13, the pic lampoons several comic book flicks like Spider-Man and Fantastic Four and will target teens and young adults looking for immature fun. Meet the Spartans proved in January that the genre still makes money thanks to its $18.5M top spot bow. However, Superhero does not look as funny as some of the recent spoof hits as commercials are lacking in the joke department. Plus it lacks the special touch that Fox gives to these kinds of films to steer them to solid debuts. Flying into 2,700 theaters, Superhero Movie could capture about $14M this weekend.

Drake Bell in Superhero Movie

The frame’s sole R-rated title is also the best-reviewed film of the lot. Paramount’s Stop-Loss stars Ryan Phillippe as a decorated soldier home from Iraq who tries to reclaim his former life in his small Texas hometown. Channing Tatum and Abbie Cornish co-star giving the film some star wattage with teens and young adults. And good marks from critics can’t hurt. But the rating could cut into some of the sales from younger teens and subject matter remotely related to conflicts in the Middle East have driven audiences away time and time again. The studio and producer MTV Films have downplayed the war element and instead wisely focused on the young hip stars. Competition will come mostly from 21 and Superhero Movie which will play to many of the same folks and carry a more commercially viable PG-13. Landing in roughly 1,200 sites, Stop-Loss could take in about $6M this weekend.

Channing Tatum and Ryan Phillippe in Stop-Loss

An overweight man fights for his true love in the new comedy Run, Fat Boy, Run which arrives in the fewest theaters of any new release. The PG-13 film stars Simon Pegg of Shaun of the Dead fame and could tap into his cult fan base in the U.S. which grew bigger after last year’s Hot Fuzz. Unfortunately that audience is not large enough to command big numbers at the turnstiles. Picturehouse’s sneak previews last weekend helped to circulate some buzz but most other major films have more. Mixed reviews won’t do much to spark a frenzy either. Running low on starpower, hype, and theaters, Run, Fat Boy, Run could debut to the tune of around $4M from 1,050 locations this weekend.

Hank Azaria and Simon Pegg in Run, Fat Boy, Run

Horton Hears A Who will try to become the first film of the year to threepeat atop the box office charts but will have to fend off the advances of a couple of potential new hits. Luckily the Fox toon has no direct competition for its family audience so its decline should be less than last weekend’s. A 40% drop would give the Dr. Seuss pic around $15M over three days and boost the overall tally to $114M.

Tyler Perry will see a sizable fall for his latest venture Meet the Browns since his loyal audience shows up in big numbers on the first weekend. Look for Lionsgate to lose half of its sales and bank around $10 for a ten-day total of $35M.

Fellow sophomores Shutter and Drillbit Taylor should fall hard too. The weekend could result in a 55% fall for the Fox thriller to $4.5M and 50% decline for the Paramount comedy to $5M. Totals would rise to about $19M a piece.

LAST YEAR: Two new comedies posted strong debuts to end the first quarter with a bang. Will Ferrell‘s figure skating pic Blades of Glory opened at number one with a solid $33M for Paramount. After spending two weeks on top, the sports comedy went on to score $118.6M domestically. Disney’s animated film Meet the Robinsons snagged second place with $25.1M on its way to $97.8M. The stylish actioner 300 placed third with $11.4M for Warner Bros. and was followed by the studio’s kidpic TMNT with $9.2M and Disney’s biker comedy Wild Hogs with $8.7M.

Author: Gitesh Pandya,

Tag Cloud

thriller cancelled TV series TV Land IFC Films Extras doctor who dramedy Disney Plus crossover USA Network Disney streaming service what to watch asian-american Disney+ Disney Plus Winners sequel Apple TV+ Trailer mission: impossible historical drama 2020 Super Bowl Netflix Christmas movies NBC TBS cats Funimation 2018 007 Baby Yoda Writers Guild of America Trophy Talk Amazon Studios 4/20 APB Star Wars richard e. Grant The CW New York Comic Con a nightmare on elm street Rock Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt Cartoon Network animated Character Guide period drama zombies Turner Classic Movies docudrama Trivia Rocketman Travel Channel reviews Endgame Watching Series First Look Marvel Esquire Masterpiece Nat Geo Shondaland Lucasfilm Spring TV blockbuster Star Trek Acorn TV BBC America DC Comics DGA social media Peacock boxoffice PBS Universal The Arrangement E! History quibi CBS Sony Pictures finale franchise Amazon Prime disaster Warner Bros. Starz television Music See It Skip It Columbia Pictures universal monsters breaking bad Ellie Kemper Television Academy police drama American Society of Cinematographers X-Men award winner Adult Swim hispanic GIFs adventure TV renewals spanish language GoT Awards Tour scary movies child's play Britbox Paramount Network singing competition Family YouTube Red Fall TV RT History teaser spider-man renewed TV shows Avengers movie Marvel Studios Tomatazos Toys jamie lee curtis kids Mindy Kaling Musicals ratings Elton John Video Games CNN Cosplay Mary Poppins Returns Spectrum Originals Apple TV Plus BET all-time comedies vampires Quiz Song of Ice and Fire Countdown Martial Arts MTV Chernobyl Biopics halloween 24 frames discovery Sundance Now Animation Academy Awards serial killer Showtime Food Network Stephen King YA Sci-Fi canceled TV shows unscripted A24 TCA 2017 series Best and Worst ghosts biography cults adaptation blaxploitation game show GLAAD E3 Lifetime Brie Larson indie ESPN dragons National Geographic San Diego Comic-Con Drama Creative Arts Emmys independent Mary Tyler Moore dark Mystery Tarantino stand-up comedy crime drama Pixar Crunchyroll versus FXX Musical spinoff concert psycho Emmys Country comiccon Reality Competition DC streaming service best Rocky Comedy Central cancelled TV shows true crime CMT Winter TV batman Certified Fresh green book festivals Black Mirror joker cancelled television LGBTQ The Witch YouTube NYCC Infographic Crackle dc witnail Marvel Television Hallmark Freeform cartoon anthology 20th Century Fox nature WGN travel supernatural Ovation Sundance children's TV south america miniseries robots rotten movies we love Black History Month Tubi spain cars Podcast 2017 psychological thriller Turner ABC Family mutant Pet Sematary VH1 DC Universe name the review talk show Rom-Com HBO Max Emmy Nominations Polls and Games Netflix Heroines Box Office Pirates 45 Epix Year in Review harry potter RT21 Apple Horror El Rey Teen Vudu romantic comedy stoner Hulu A&E aliens Film Festival romance Fox News VICE Tumblr The Walking Dead HBO Red Carpet tv talk Comics on TV Pop TV zombie Film Disney Channel TCM Syfy Premiere Dates crime thriller Arrowverse mockumentary Walt Disney Pictures Schedule medical drama TruTV justice league USA Photos theme song Nickelodeon sag awards TCA Awards cops Set visit crime dceu strong female leads foreign Mudbound SXSW space Captain marvel sports IFC political drama binge elevated horror Grammys golden globes Valentine's Day chucky Christmas critics 21st Century Fox SundanceTV Oscars documentary sitcom Superheroes BBC Sundance TV Pride Month Discovery Channel First Reviews canceled Women's History Month Thanksgiving Classic Film hist Kids & Family Shudder 71st Emmy Awards Chilling Adventures of Sabrina TNT Dark Horse Comics die hard Logo FOX screenings Sneak Peek Marathons Summer Action book AMC werewolf Superheroe reboot Calendar Fantasy Comedy zero dark thirty Hallmark Christmas movies Ghostbusters casting 2015 Paramount WarnerMedia Mary poppins cooking facebook DirecTV Election CBS All Access Reality Western Cannes FX MSNBC FX on Hulu Spike comics Holidays OWN criterion diversity Opinion streaming ABC movies Hear Us Out Amazon Prime Video Interview directors Disney Lifetime Christmas movies slashers war screen actors guild LGBT TLC ITV christmas movies Nominations anime OneApp science fiction dogs based on movie 2016 Binge Guide transformers CW Seed Pop video 2019 President Bravo Comic Book Anna Paquin game of thrones TCA Winter 2020 cinemax PaleyFest comic cancelled technology MCU toy story free movies TIFF politics spy thriller Holiday latino Lionsgate revenge parents composers natural history SDCC Amazon The Purge TV YouTube Premium