Box Office Guru Preview: Four New Players Join The Game

21, Superhero Movie, Stop-Loss, and Run, Fat Boy, Run play for box office pot.

by | March 27, 2008 | Comments

Four new releases take a gamble debuting in theaters across North America hoping to hit the jackpot with audiences. The blackjack drama 21 and the spoof comedy Superhero Movie lead the way and will try their best to reach the number one spot. Other choices for ticket buyers include the soldier drama Stop-Loss and the marathon comedy Run, Fat Boy, Run in what should be another down weekend for the industry.

Kevin Spacey leads a team of math wizards from M.I.T. to a life of card-counting riches in Las Vegas in the new Sony pic 21. The PG-13 flick stars Jim Sturgess, Kate Bosworth, and Laurence Fishburne and is based on a true story. Teens and young adults will be the target audience here as well as card sharks everywhere. The marketing has been slick and even though the film is not all that high on starpower, the subject matter and the look should help it connect with audiences. The studio has given 21 a big push and it should play as something new for young adults to get excited about instead of the same tired old formula. Competition will be a factor though, given that some of the other new flicks will appeal to the same age range. Opening in more than 2,500 locations, 21 could debut with about $15M.

Kevin Spacey and Jim Sturgess in 21

The spoof comedy, the movie staple that won’t go away, returns again with the new film Superhero Movie from MGM and The Weinstein Company. Rated PG-13, the pic lampoons several comic book flicks like Spider-Man and Fantastic Four and will target teens and young adults looking for immature fun. Meet the Spartans proved in January that the genre still makes money thanks to its $18.5M top spot bow. However, Superhero does not look as funny as some of the recent spoof hits as commercials are lacking in the joke department. Plus it lacks the special touch that Fox gives to these kinds of films to steer them to solid debuts. Flying into 2,700 theaters, Superhero Movie could capture about $14M this weekend.

Drake Bell in Superhero Movie

The frame’s sole R-rated title is also the best-reviewed film of the lot. Paramount’s Stop-Loss stars Ryan Phillippe as a decorated soldier home from Iraq who tries to reclaim his former life in his small Texas hometown. Channing Tatum and Abbie Cornish co-star giving the film some star wattage with teens and young adults. And good marks from critics can’t hurt. But the rating could cut into some of the sales from younger teens and subject matter remotely related to conflicts in the Middle East have driven audiences away time and time again. The studio and producer MTV Films have downplayed the war element and instead wisely focused on the young hip stars. Competition will come mostly from 21 and Superhero Movie which will play to many of the same folks and carry a more commercially viable PG-13. Landing in roughly 1,200 sites, Stop-Loss could take in about $6M this weekend.

Channing Tatum and Ryan Phillippe in Stop-Loss

An overweight man fights for his true love in the new comedy Run, Fat Boy, Run which arrives in the fewest theaters of any new release. The PG-13 film stars Simon Pegg of Shaun of the Dead fame and could tap into his cult fan base in the U.S. which grew bigger after last year’s Hot Fuzz. Unfortunately that audience is not large enough to command big numbers at the turnstiles. Picturehouse’s sneak previews last weekend helped to circulate some buzz but most other major films have more. Mixed reviews won’t do much to spark a frenzy either. Running low on starpower, hype, and theaters, Run, Fat Boy, Run could debut to the tune of around $4M from 1,050 locations this weekend.

Hank Azaria and Simon Pegg in Run, Fat Boy, Run

Horton Hears A Who will try to become the first film of the year to threepeat atop the box office charts but will have to fend off the advances of a couple of potential new hits. Luckily the Fox toon has no direct competition for its family audience so its decline should be less than last weekend’s. A 40% drop would give the Dr. Seuss pic around $15M over three days and boost the overall tally to $114M.

Tyler Perry will see a sizable fall for his latest venture Meet the Browns since his loyal audience shows up in big numbers on the first weekend. Look for Lionsgate to lose half of its sales and bank around $10 for a ten-day total of $35M.

Fellow sophomores Shutter and Drillbit Taylor should fall hard too. The weekend could result in a 55% fall for the Fox thriller to $4.5M and 50% decline for the Paramount comedy to $5M. Totals would rise to about $19M a piece.

LAST YEAR: Two new comedies posted strong debuts to end the first quarter with a bang. Will Ferrell‘s figure skating pic Blades of Glory opened at number one with a solid $33M for Paramount. After spending two weeks on top, the sports comedy went on to score $118.6M domestically. Disney’s animated film Meet the Robinsons snagged second place with $25.1M on its way to $97.8M. The stylish actioner 300 placed third with $11.4M for Warner Bros. and was followed by the studio’s kidpic TMNT with $9.2M and Disney’s biker comedy Wild Hogs with $8.7M.

Author: Gitesh Pandya,

Tag Cloud

serial killer Summer discovery WGN television DC Universe Esquire ABC Musical WarnerMedia Warner Bros. First Look thriller Universal Lifetime Best and Worst golden globes psychological thriller doctor who Mudbound festivals aliens medical drama science fiction Grammys Britbox Pirates talk show Kids & Family Pixar 24 frames MCU crime Infographic spider-man dceu Brie Larson ITV DC Comics justice league Masterpiece quibi travel YouTube Red TV Land Rocky San Diego Comic-Con President YA Emmys American Society of Cinematographers Shudder 45 Certified Fresh comiccon police drama HBO USA Network Calendar Cannes politics Fantasy Sundance Acorn TV Film Spectrum Originals cooking Biopics Character Guide Chernobyl Freeform FXX cults facebook USA Box Office TIFF vampires NYCC Amazon Prime Marathons Bravo Creative Arts Emmys Pet Sematary Opinion social media cars richard e. Grant true crime 007 VICE Film Festival Ovation Mindy Kaling Paramount Network Quiz TV 2018 Fall TV CBS All Access Epix zombie Amazon Holidays disaster Premiere Dates IFC Films CMT Disney streaming service BBC America Cartoon Network Sony Pictures CNN streaming teaser Disney Channel Crackle boxoffice Ellie Kemper revenge mockumentary nature strong female leads Super Bowl anthology Election Mary Tyler Moore transformers Comics on TV TLC adaptation BBC Music 20th Century Fox comic A&E Binge Guide Comedy zombies El Rey Teen BET Winners Adult Swim Toys political drama Comedy Central MTV See It Skip It Heroines Ghostbusters Black Mirror The Witch Shondaland Red Carpet Photos CW Seed Lionsgate Superheroes GLAAD Mary poppins GIFs technology RT History Set visit Starz Sneak Peek Dark Horse Comics Disney DirecTV Pop crime drama Syfy tv talk LGBT hist PBS PaleyFest Hulu Spike Chilling Adventures of Sabrina GoT Oscars Countdown Fox News VH1 spinoff TruTV animated cops IFC Netflix ghosts Watching Series TNT Song of Ice and Fire Women's History Month The CW Country singing competition dramedy dragons Vudu series ESPN DGA Thanksgiving composers OWN Tumblr Reality Martial Arts Superheroe RT21 Star Trek Tarantino romance Year in Review jamie lee curtis sitcom Rocketman CBS spy thriller theme song TBS Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt Rom-Com 2016 historical drama FOX TCA elevated horror Lucasfilm Walt Disney Pictures LGBTQ blaxploitation book movies cinemax sequel Drama Apple AMC APB MSNBC what to watch SDCC kids National Geographic YouTube Premium Tomatazos NBC Trophy Talk robots DC streaming service Animation crime thriller Nickelodeon The Arrangement HBO Max 2017 anime Showtime TCM Marvel unscripted miniseries Star Wars crossover 2015 History 21st Century Fox 2019 harry potter Logo Christmas Mary Poppins Returns cats war Nat Geo space adventure Video Games Sundance Now E3 Podcast Schedule finale casting Pride Month biography docudrama Anna Paquin Action Family Writers Guild of America Valentine's Day sports game show toy story Mystery Rock Stephen King SundanceTV Trivia New York Comic Con Awards Tour Food Network green book Elton John period drama psycho Amazon Prime Video mutant based on movie natural history children's TV Musicals Winter TV Awards FX ABC Family binge Comic Book Emmy Nominations award winner zero dark thirty supernatural ratings Spring TV E! Polls and Games diversity Paramount Horror Extras TCA 2017 Cosplay Trailer Interview Reality Competition dc Columbia Pictures SXSW Sci-Fi Nominations Captain marvel witnail X-Men Western