Weekend Box Office

Box Office Guru Preview: "Knocked Up" Expecting Solid Arrival

by | May 31, 2007 | Comments

Call it the weekend of the actor/producer. Three new films with stars that do double duty behind the scenes (or have good agents that can snag a free credit) enter a marketplace filled with big-budget tentpole pics quickly eroding away.

Seth Rogen headlines and executive produces the new comedy "Knocked Up," Kevin Costner stars and produces the crime thriller "Mr. Brooks," and Elisabeth Shue acts in and co-produces the sports drama "Gracie." Following an explosive May at the box office, the first weekend of June should see ticket sales calm down a bit before George and Brad usher in the next big wave of sequels.

For adult moviegoers sick of pirates, ogres, and webslingers, Universal has the answer – the raunchy romantic comedy "Knocked Up." The R-rated film from Judd Apatow ("The 40-Year-Old Virgin") stars Rogen and Katherine Heigl as a stoner loser and a just-promoted entertainment newswoman, respectively, who share a one night stand which leads to an unplanned pregnancy. Older teens, young adults, and couples make up the target audience here and the studio is hoping to bring back the same folks that opened "Virgin" to $21.4M on its way to a stellar $109.3M (five times its debut) two summers ago.

With mindless popcorn sequels dominating the marquees for the past month, "Knocked Up" brings a breath of fresh air into the multiplexes. Moviegoers looking for new characters and new situations will be pleased. The marketing push has been strong but television spots are not too funny, mostly because the bulk of the humor is too racy to feature on broadcast television. But when opening weekend audiences find out how much funnier the actual film is compared to the trailer and commercials, red hot word-of-mouth will keep the pic playing week after week.

The public’s appetite for studio comedies has been healthy over the last six months with "Wild Hogs," "Night at the Museum," "Blades of Glory," and "Norbit" selling an amazing $626M worth of ticket stubs combined. "Hogs" even popped back into the top ten last weekend in its thirteenth session signaling the hunger in the marketplace right now for something good that will make people laugh. Universal enjoys going after adults on the weekend after Memorial Day. In 2005 it debuted the serious Russell CroweRenee Zellweger boxing pic "Cinderella Man" to $18.3M while last year the studio exceeded expectations with the $39.2M bow of the date flick "The Break-Up." "Knocked Up" should play to much of the same audience as the Jennifer Aniston film, although with less starpower and no tabloid gossip about the star’s personal lives, the grosses won’t soar as high.

Critics have been praising "Knocked Up" and its strong cross-gender appeal will make it a hit with the date crowd. A unique concept and a great title will also help sell the film. "Pirates" will only be in its second weekend and will still be pulling in a broad audience so there will be some competition. But "Knocked Up" has great buzz and will start selling itself after people begin pouring out of the Friday night shows. Opening in 2,873 theaters, the Universal release may gross about $24M this weekend and witness small declines in the weeks ahead.


"Yay, pregnancy."

Less than a year after co-starring with Ashton Kutcher in "The Guardian," Kevin Costner teams up with the "Punk’d" star’s gal pal Demi Moore in the new psychological thriller "Mr. Brooks." In the R-rated film, the former bodyguard plays a family man who moonlights as a serial killer while the ex-G.I. Jane stars as a detective hot on his trail. The MGM release should play to the oldest audience of any major release out now. That’s a good thing since direct competition will not be too fierce. But despite some moderately good reviews, Brooks is anchored by two aging actors who were bulletproof box office stars fifteen years ago, but are not all that reliable at the turnstiles nowadays.

"Knocked Up" has much more buzz around it and will take away much of the thirtysomething crowd, but the forty-plus audience might give "Mr. Brooks" a try. Older adults did little for "Georgia Rule" which bowed to just $6.8M but April’s "Fracture" had a decent $11M opening. Costner should draw an audience more like the one that came out for the Anthony Hopkins thriller. The marketing push has not been too forceful so a large turnout is not likely. Invading 2,453 theaters, "Mr. Brooks" may generate a $9M debut.


Where Dane Cook gets his career advice.

Picturehouse targets the Lady Foot Locker crowd with its new drama "Gracie" which tells the true story of a teenage girl in the late 1970s who fought to play competitive soccer when the sport did not open its doors to her gender. The PG-13 flick stars Dermot Mulroney, Elisabeth Shue, and Carly Schroeder and has been marketed squarely to its core audience of teenage girls. "Gracie" is unlikely to score any goals with other audience segments and is not being released in too many theaters so a modest opening is likely. Reviews have been mixed. Kicking its way into about 1,000 locations, "Gracie" might find itself with an opening weekend take of around $3M.


The mullet-headed heckler is always an important training component.

Fox Searchlight invades the arthouses once again with its Russian fantasy epic "Day Watch," the sequel to Timur Bekmambetov‘s "Night Watch" which became a mammoth blockbuster in its home country in 2004. Last year, "Night Watch" bowed in the U.S. to a sturdy $35,475 average from only three theaters and eventually collected $1.5M from 158 sites. "Day Watch" continues the battle of Light vs. Darkness in an adventure set in Moscow with digital effects that could rival any $200M-budgeted Hollywood tentpole pic. The R-rated film debuts on Friday in New York and Los Angeles with two theaters in each city plus a solo house in San Francisco. More markets across the country will be added in the weeks ahead.


"Day Watch"

None of the newbies looks like first-place material so "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End" should easily retain its box office crown. However, a substantial fall is likely. As a third part of a franchise coming off of a big holiday bow, the drop would of course be large. "Dead Man’s Chest" fell by 54% in its sophomore frame. Add in the fact that fan reaction isn’t exactly stellar and the ship should sink by a large amount. Don’t expect the latest "Pirates" to suffer the 67% crash that the third "X-Men" flick saw a year ago when it came off of the Memorial Day frame. Instead, it could perform more like 2004’s "The Day After Tomorrow" which fell 60% coming off of the same holiday weekend. Luckily for Johnny Depp and pals the competition is not too fierce this weekend. A similar 60% tumble would give "At World’s End" about $46M worth of weekend loot which would boost the ten-day cume to $218M.

"Shrek the Third" will also not have much in the way of competition for its family audience, but comedy fans will certainly abandon ship and head for "Knocked Up." The ogre franchise makes a sizable portion of its money from teens and young adults and those folks are going to be moving on. Last weekend’s 56% drop was affected by the arrival of "Pirates." This weekend, it could stabilize and fall by 45%. That would give "Shrek the Third" around $29M for the weekend and $256M after 17 days.

"Spider-Man 3," the only May threequel with the actual number three in its title, has also been fading away. A 45% drop would give the Sandman saga roughly $8M boosting the cume to $319M.

LAST YEAR: Jennifer Aniston and Vince Vaughn proved more popular than super heroes as their romantic comedy "The Break-Up" knocked "X-Men: The Last Stand" out of the number one spot in only its second weekend. The Universal comedy opened to $39.2M on its way to a better-than-expected $118.7M. The mutant sequel tumbled 67% to $34M in its sophomore frame for the runnerup position. Paramount’s toon sensation "Over the Hedge" held up well in third with $20.6M followed by "The Da Vinci Code" with $18.6M and "Mission: Impossible III" with $4.7M.

Author: Gitesh Pandya, www.BoxOfficeGuru.com

Tag Cloud

Discovery Channel name the review Trailer what to watch joker psycho GLAAD Photos Apple TV+ 20th Century Fox Disney+ Disney Plus CBS All Access spider-man YA President space mutant Dark Horse Comics blockbuster Musical independent Esquire Animation cults 007 Spike Drama TruTV breaking bad Polls and Games The Purge Quiz Box Office politics robots Bravo Shondaland justice league Lifetime hispanic Lifetime Christmas movies streaming Ovation nature canceled TV shows slashers Academy Awards halloween Tarantino Family teaser theme song Film Epix period drama DirecTV Amazon Prime DGA SDCC TLC Heroines transformers docudrama Trophy Talk sequel miniseries Election Walt Disney Pictures spinoff Nat Geo Reality Competition Disney streaming service Lionsgate diversity ESPN TCA Winter 2020 screen actors guild Sundance versus Britbox Rocketman supernatural toy story TV movies historical drama Stephen King YouTube Rocky FOX festivals Marathons game of thrones Infographic Set visit ghosts Comics on TV 2019 Universal SXSW Hulu series based on movie YouTube Premium spain Nominations Country Super Bowl Columbia Pictures cartoon Comic Book Sci-Fi quibi Winter TV ABC Crackle biography Pop RT21 See It Skip It Marvel Television Paramount zero dark thirty A&E Pet Sematary christmas movies revenge Starz Reality Red Carpet CBS WGN 2015 Pixar History foreign Thanksgiving children's TV MSNBC TNT OWN APB Peacock The Arrangement X-Men CMT 2020 Countdown Arrowverse mockumentary Mystery Marvel National Geographic Fox News Winners El Rey romantic comedy Emmy Nominations NBC Turner television war science fiction Rock Elton John Extras cinemax Showtime TIFF witnail TCA ITV Food Network Brie Larson Biopics Cannes Oscars Star Wars psychological thriller 2018 Disney Plus YouTube Red adaptation First Reviews aliens Certified Fresh TCA 2017 Chernobyl renewed TV shows E3 Opinion Schedule ratings Holidays Sony Pictures Writers Guild of America AMC Masterpiece boxoffice Sneak Peek crime thriller dceu USA Network game show adventure BBC VICE anime Pride Month tv talk Emmys kids Sundance TV Captain marvel FXX golden globes Awards Tubi NYCC TV renewals IFC Films discovery Amazon Acorn TV Cartoon Network Superheroe DC Universe TV Land talk show LGBT Cosplay Song of Ice and Fire TCM Anna Paquin Teen The Walking Dead social media composers cops cancelled television Lucasfilm free movies Awards Tour Watching Series Black Mirror Trivia spanish language casting RT History HBO Max binge The CW 24 frames Tumblr cars book Christmas reboot DC Comics richard e. Grant Premiere Dates cancelled TV shows USA facebook Martial Arts travel Nickelodeon anthology Turner Classic Movies animated cats vampires natural history award winner Sundance Now Valentine's Day 71st Emmy Awards comic serial killer CNN Freeform Television Academy Star Trek ABC Family Crunchyroll unscripted GoT Warner Bros. VH1 Ghostbusters rotten movies we love Mary poppins romance dragons Western crime Hallmark Christmas movies Disney Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt comiccon crossover zombie Mudbound crime drama Comedy spy thriller LGBTQ Tomatazos CW Seed video elevated horror Disney Channel Endgame Kids & Family strong female leads Apple TV Plus latino Paramount Network canceled sports Summer Shudder Fall TV screenings Toys WarnerMedia DC streaming service true crime E! green book Classic Film San Diego Comic-Con MCU SundanceTV Year in Review Interview BET cooking Calendar Film Festival Logo indie IFC Apple Best and Worst Binge Guide werewolf Fantasy stand-up comedy Superheroes Musicals Video Games BBC America Amazon Prime Video Pirates American Society of Cinematographers harry potter Mindy Kaling Syfy Netflix Christmas movies police drama Action Creative Arts Emmys HBO sag awards FX Women's History Month Comedy Central jamie lee curtis Grammys TBS Podcast finale singing competition doctor who Horror medical drama Chilling Adventures of Sabrina Ellie Kemper Spectrum Originals comics cancelled TV series directors thriller GIFs batman blaxploitation 45 dc Hallmark Mary Poppins Returns The Witch First Look south america Rom-Com Character Guide zombies 2017 Baby Yoda A24 hist Mary Tyler Moore New York Comic Con Avengers cancelled disaster Music Marvel Studios Netflix technology MTV dramedy 2016 Adult Swim 21st Century Fox OneApp sitcom political drama PBS Vudu PaleyFest Holiday Spring TV