Trophy Talk

Rotten Tomatoes Predicts the 2024 Oscars

Here are our best, highly educated guesses as to who will take home the hardware on Sunday night, from reasonably secure guesses to not-so-sure things.

by | March 5, 2024 | Comments


95th Oscars hosted by Jimmy Kimmel. (ABC/Matt Sayles)

(Photo by ABC)

After months of speculation, prognostication, and way too many hot takes, it’s time yet again for our yearly picks for who will take home a golden statuette this Sunday. Despite what was assumed to be a very competitive year of nominations with films like Barbie, The Zone of Interest, Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives, The Holdovers, and Oppenheimer being a part of the awards conversation from early on, we are actually approaching what will likely be one of the most predictable award ceremonies we’ve had in recent years.

Although there is still a lot to be decided, especially in the top categories, there have been dominating performances all year, especially for names like Robert Downey Jr. and Da’Vine Joy Randolph, both of whom have swept every single pre-cursor prize leading up to Oscar Night. And in the crafts categories, contests for the Best Score, Best Cinematography, Best Editing, and Best Costumes have all been sewn up for their perspective front runners. But there’s a lot to be said about who will be joining this year’s group of Oscar winners.

On the other hand, the lead acting categories aren’t quite so obvious. Yes, it is a two-person race in both. Still, anyone claiming that Lily Gladstone, Emma Stone, Cillian Murphy, or Paul Giamatti is a lock is quite possibly underestimating how strange things get in the final days of Oscar voting.

Cillian Murphy and director Christopher Nolan on the set of Oppenheimer (2023)

(Photo by Melinda Sue Gordon/©Universal Pictures)

Even films with high levels of acclaim within the Academy have failed to guarantee any acting nominations. And yeah, we are still complaining again about Greta Lee’s snub for Past Lives. In truth, for as much hoopla was made over the fact that Greta Gerwig and Margot Robbie did not receive nominations for Best Director and Best Actress, respectively, both will be on hand on Sunday with more than a puncher’s chance of winning something, which is more than names like Lee, Teyana Taylor (A Thousand and One), and Natalie Portman (May December) can say about their work.

Even with all of Oppenheimer’s dominance all season, if it doesn’t win over 50% of Best Picture voters, it would trigger the ranked choice ballot scenario, and a secondary favorite like Barbie or The Holdovers could give the presumptive winner a run for its money. However, after recent Best Picture wins at the PGA, BAFTA, Critics Choice Awards, and a Best Ensemble win at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, the chances of any other film wining would be a statistical anomaly that would go down in history.

If you’ve been checking our Awards Leaderboard, you know that Oppenheimer has also been running away with the lion’s share of wins and is currently on track to be the most awarded film we’ve ever had since we began tracking. But there are still a ton of races up in the air. We have question marks about the Best Animated Feature, the contest between The Boy and the Heron and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-verse. If the webslinger flick can pull out a win, it would be the first time for a film series outside of the Pixar landscape to repeat in the category. And there’s a lot to be said in the shorts category. We have noteworthy films about a barber in Arkansas, The Last Repair Shop in Los Angeles, shorts on the music of John and Yoko, and a very compelling short from Wes Anderson (The Wonderful World of Henry Sugar), which is likely to earn the filmmaker quite possibly his very first Oscar win after eight nominations.

With so much drama yet to unfold, we of course will be tuning in, and we expect it to be a fun ride on Oscar night where we are assured there will be — as there always are — more than handful of shocks.  Our Awards Editor, Jacqueline Coley, has made these guesses based on potential nominees’ critical reception (hello, Tomatometer!), the nominations and wins they’ve been receiving from guilds and other groups during awards season, and what we’re hearing from voters and other industry folks — aka the “buzz.”

Read on for our picks for the 2024 Oscar winners. Let us know who you think will win in the comments, and tune in on Tuesday on ABC at 8 a.m. EST/5 a.m. PST to see if we — or you — were right.

Best Picture

Who will Win? Oppenheimer

Possible Spoilers: The Holdovers

Coulda, Woulda, Shoulda: Iron Claw

Best Actor In a Leading Role

Who will Win? Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Possible Spoilers: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Coulda, Woulda, Shoulda: Alden Ehrenreich, Fair Play

Best Actress In A Leading Role

Who will Win? Emma Stone, Poor Things

Possible Spoilers: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Coulda, Woulda, Shoulda: Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One

Best Actor In a Supporting Role

Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer (2023)

(Photo by Melinda Sue Gordon/©Universal Pictures)

Who will be nominated?

Who will Win? Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Possible Spoilers: Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Coulda, Woulda, Shoulda: Glenn Howerton, Blackberry

Best Actress In A Supporting Role

Da'Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers (2023)

(Photo by Seacia Pavao/©Focus Features)

Who will Win? Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Possible Spoilers: America Ferrera, Barbie

Coulda, Woulda, Shoulda: Erika Alexander, American Fiction

Best Animated Feature Film

Who will Win? Spider-Man: Across the the Spider-Verse 

Possible Spoilers: The Boy and the Heron

Coulda, Woulda, Shoulda: Suzume

Best Cinematography

Who will Win? Oppenheimer

Possible Spoilers: Poor Things

Coulda, Woulda, Shoulda: Society of the Snow

Best Costume Design 

Who will Win? Poor Things

Possible Spoilers: Napoleon

Coulda, Woulda, Shoulda: John Wick: Chapter 4

Best Director

Christopher Nolan on the set of Oppenheimer (2023)

(Photo by Melinda Sue Gordon/©Universal Pictures)

Who will Win? Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Possible Spoilers: Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

Coulda, Woulda, Shoulda: Celine Song, Past Lives

Best Documentary (Feature)

Image from 20 Days in Mariupol

(Photo by PBS Frontline)

Who will Win: 20 Days in Mariupol

Possible Spoilers: The Eternal Memory

Coulda, Woulda, Shoulda: Still: A Michael J. Fox Story

Best International Feature Film

Who will win? The Zone of Interest

Possible Spoilers: Io Capitano

Coulda, Woulda, Shoulda: Anatomy of a Fall

Best Music (Original Score)

Who will win? Oppenheimer

Possible Spoilers: Killers of the Flower Moon

Coulda, Woulda, Shoulda: Saltburn

Best Music (Original Song)

Who will win? “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

Possible Spoilers: “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie

Coulda, Woulda, Shoulda: “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Best Visual Effects

Who will Win? Godzilla Minus One

Possible Spoilers: The Creator

Coulda, Woulda, Shoulda: Society of the Snow

Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

Who will Win? American Fiction

Possible Spoilers: The Zone of Interest

Coulda, Woulda, Shoulda: Blackberry, Pricilla

Best Writing (Original Screenplay)

Who will Win? Anatomy of a Fall

Possible Spoilers: Past Lives

Coulda, Woulda, Shoulda: Fair Play, A Thousand and One

The 2024 Academy Awards nominations will be announced on January 23, 2024, at 5am PST/8am EST. Check back at Rotten Tomatoes to see who gets a nod. 

Are you as obsessed with awards as we are? Check out our Awards Leaderboard

Thumbnail image by Melinda Sue Gordon/©Universal Pictures

On an Apple device? Follow Rotten Tomatoes on Apple News.