Trophy Talk

What this Year's Surprise-Filled Golden Globes Mean for the Oscars

Bohemian Rhapsody may be the champion for now, but it won't last, while the Best Picture race remains wide open

by | January 8, 2019 | Comments

On Sunday night, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) handed out the 2019 Golden Globes and, as is often the case with the Golden Globes, they delivered some surprises. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody, Glenn Close, and Green Book didn’t walk into the Beverly Hilton on Sunday night favored to win, but each walked out with a Globe statuette.  Check out our recap of the best moments from the ceremony here.

Owing to its position on the calendar and ability to host a star-studded awards ceremony, the Globes are often looked at as a measuring stick for awards season. But with such a small voting body it’s unwise to put too much faith in the Globes results as a predictor of Oscar winners or nominations. No slight on the HFPA, but a group of 90 international film journalist cannot be expected to predict the voting habits of 7,258 industry professionals. Since the Academy expanded the Best Picture category to include up to 10 nominees in 2009, only 59% of Golden Globe Best Picture nominees have earned Oscar nominations.

Looked at more closely, it can seem that the Golden Globes are more a reaction point than any sort of clear indicator. A snub by the HFPA can spark indignation that helps, or damages, a film or performer’s Oscar chances. Last year Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri won the GG for Best Drama and the backlash that was already brewing to that film finally bubbled over, likely turning some Oscar voters toward Guillermo Del Toro’s The Shape of Water, which later won Best Picture at the Academy Awards. The same could be said for La La Land vs. Moonlight in 2016; Moonlight won the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture – Drama, but was shut out in all the other categories – snubs that only added supporters to its bandwagon come Oscar time.

With all this in mind, what do Sunday night’s wins and losses mean for this year’s awards landscape?


A Star Dims, But Only Somewhat

(L-R) BRADLEY COOPER as Jack and LADY GAGA as Ally in the drama "A STAR IS BORN," from Warner Bros. Pictures, in association with Live Nation Productions and Metro Goldwyn Mayer Pictures, a Warner Bros. Pictures release. Photo Credit: Courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures
(Photo by @ Warner Bros. )

A Star Is Born has fizzled but not completely faded; save the win for Best Song, the film was shut out of many awards, notably Best Actress – Drama for Lady Gaga. It’s not out of what is still a very wide-open Best Picture race, but it needs some wins. Look to this weekend’s Critics Choice awards for added momentum, but if Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper fall short again then the movie’s chances of big Oscar wins will be… er, shallower.


Best Supporting Actor Is Still Undecided 

Richard E. Grant
(Photo by © Fox Searchlight)

Can You Ever Forgive Me?‘s Richard E. Grant lost to Green Book‘s Mahershala Ali for Best Supporting Actor, but we think that has a lot to do with Ali’s having been shut out of a GG nomination for Moonlight a few years ago (and going on to win the Oscar). With a healthy number of wins from the critics guilds, Grant is still very much in contention. Same can be said for First Reformed‘s Ethan Hawke (for a Best Actor nomination), Eight Grade‘s Bo Burham (writing and directing), and Roma‘s Yalitza Aparicio (Best Actress), none of whom were nominated for the Globes but each of whom have enough momentum with critics groups to keep them top of mind with Academy voters.


King Continues Her Reign

76th ANNUAL GOLDEN GLOBE AWARDS -- Pictured: Regina King, winner of Best Supporting Actress - Motion Picture at the 76th Annual Golden Globe Awards held at the Beverly Hilton Hotel on January 6, 2019 -- (Photo by: Paul Drinkwater/NBC)
(Photo by @ NBC)

Regina King’s winning streak continues – after a slight bump with that bizarre SAG snub. King’s work in If Beale Street Could Talk is the most honored performance of 2018 – with nearly 40 nominations and 20 wins – and her Oscar win is looking more and more assured. With momentum and buzz being just as important as the performance, King’s rousing acceptance speech was a final word to silence any naysayers (we pity the conductor who tried to play her off).


Any future for the Divisive ones?

20th Century Fox
(Photo by @ 20th Century Fox)

Few predicted the Globes would honor Bohemian Rhapsody (62% on the Tomatometer) – the lowest-rated Best Picture winner in over 33 years – in the Drama category. And it wasn’t just an issue with the film’s quality. Despite his omission from the speeches and ceremony, Bryan Singer was still listed as a producer and director for Bohemian Rhapsody after being unceremoniously fired two weeks before principal photography wrapped. Couple this with the sexual assault allegations against him and it seemed unlikely that the HPFA would honor his film. And yet they did. Green Book, the surprise winner of Best Film – Musical or Comedy, has also courted controversy thanks to a nonsensical gaffe by star Viggo Mortensen and questions about how “true” the story is. You can read a slew of articles online about the issues many are taking with both films, but cultural critic Louis Vitrel might have summed it up best on Twitter: “Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Book are definitely the best movies of the year unless you ask the communities those movies were supposed to represent.” With this kind of backlash, we’d advise against putting either flick at the top of your Oscar noms predictions. Yes, both will likely be nominated for Best Picture and could win, but if either does so they will be joining dubious company. The last film to win Best Picture at the Oscars without any wins from the two most prestigious film critics groups (NYCC and LAFCA) was Crash, considered by many the worst Best Picture winner of the modern era.


Representation Matters (But It Will Matter More for the Oscars)

Sanja Bucko/Warner Bros.
(Photo by @ Warner Bros.)

The Best Picture – Drama category had made history with four of the five nominated films centering on persons of color. Add in the nomination for Crazy Rich Asians from the Musical or Comedy side and it was a banner year for representation, at least seemingly. During the ceremony, only Green Book and If Beale Street Could Talk managed to take home a prize among those diverse and celebrated films. With no specific comedy-focused categories for the Oscars, you’d have to assume Crazy Rich Asian likely doesn’t go much further (though it has a chance), but the GGs’ slights on If Beale Street Could Talk, BlacKkKlansman, and Black Panther could actually help their chances during the Oscar voting period and on the night of the awards. Much buzzed-about GG snubs – Ryan Coogler’s Black Panther script; directing and score for If Beale Street Could Talk – will be top of mind for Academy voters as they make their decisions.


Don’t Discount Roma

Roma
(Photo by @ Netflix)

The most honored film of 2019 will finally compete outside of the Foreign Language category at the Academy Awards. Prognosticators expect a ton of nominations, but many are still wondering if Alfonso Cuarón’s film can win the top prize. The “can” in that question depends largely on what voters think of Netflix. Those who have strong feelings against the streaming platform and SVOD (subscription video on demand) in general, may reject the film purely on that basis (why award the platform that’s “ruining movies,” if that’s how you feel). In the press room after his win, Roma director Alfonso Cuarón was asked pointedly if his film signaled the end of arthouse cinema; if filmmakers can bypass theaters and still win awards why would they distribute at all in future. Cuarón tactfully countered: “My question to you is, how many theaters did you think that a Mexican film in black and white, in Spanish and Mixteco, that is a drama without stars — how big did you think it would be as a conventional theatrical release?” He then added: “I [think] the discussion between Netflix and platforms, in general, should be over.” The film is peaking at the right time: It just collected two globes, continues to be one of the best-reviewed films of the year, and will enjoy a limited screening run this weekend on 70mm in select theaters (the only Best Picture contender to do so this year).


Oscar voting began Monday; nominees are announced on January 22.

Tag Cloud

Awards Tour Year in Review kids elevated horror Emmys critics rotten movies we love Holidays Apple Crackle harry potter Apple TV+ Sundance TV TCA Awards PaleyFest TV renewals romantic comedy Masterpiece GLAAD robots asian-american 45 Captain marvel Paramount Academy Awards mutant Fox News Watching Series television MSNBC Marvel Television Columbia Pictures TCM GIFs USA franchise stoner Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt blaxploitation NBC dark Drama Photos discovery Marvel game of thrones Disney Channel Election indie FX on Hulu crime drama Disney Plus Red Carpet Extras Nat Geo hist reviews APB Toys game show cooking Comedy Central spain Spectrum Originals FXX mission: impossible Family Tomatazos BAFTA golden globes Heroines TCA Winter 2020 Comedy versus Reality DC streaming service crime Schedule Amazon Prime Video halloween singing competition 2016 Summer 24 frames The Witch vampires The Walking Dead name the review Mary Poppins Returns miniseries breaking bad Freeform Bravo YouTube Red First Reviews TCA 2017 romance psycho RT History A24 First Look crime thriller best Premiere Dates adventure war docudrama Amazon Studios SundanceTV Trailer The Purge American Society of Cinematographers 007 TruTV emmy awards canceled TV shows Mary Tyler Moore Certified Fresh technology Polls and Games christmas movies Trivia thriller dogs cinemax Lifetime Star Wars hispanic spy thriller what to watch ABC Elton John Black History Month Turner Classic Movies werewolf Pet Sematary award winner Sundance Now Podcast documentary ratings BET Pixar MTV YouTube SXSW cars police drama zero dark thirty Hulu Martial Arts El Rey 2018 Ghostbusters Film adaptation IFC HBO Max canceled Rock Music diversity medical drama 2017 TV Ovation video a nightmare on elm street TNT Infographic Reality Competition TLC Trophy Talk indiana jones Creative Arts Emmys south america Spike Sony Pictures Sneak Peek X-Men Universal YouTube Premium AMC Song of Ice and Fire Super Bowl doctor who DC Universe HBO Spring TV children's TV Fall TV cats Adult Swim justice league CBS Calendar Nickelodeon jamie lee curtis cops History BET Awards Pop TV animated Paramount Network Disney+ Disney Plus Anna Paquin TBS space HBO Go Amazon Prime Pop Britbox Syfy LGBT Disney Apple TV Plus spinoff streaming independent Sundance batman strong female leads CMT nature Showtime PlayStation cancelled TV shows Mudbound CNN finale spider-man stand-up comedy anime Mystery dceu Opinion true crime Starz Stephen King BBC One Nominations satire comiccon sports screenings toy story Marvel Studios disaster natural history Chernobyl Set visit Winter TV Superheroes Western Best and Worst TIFF Discovery Channel social media anthology VH1 book Horror Rocketman CBS All Access talk show Esquire PBS Television Critics Association Awards Television Academy CW Seed DirecTV politics casting witnail all-time cancelled Amazon renewed TV shows reboot Superheroe See It Skip It tv talk parents aliens The Arrangement Arrowverse Comics on TV OneApp New York Comic Con Netflix Christmas movies Countdown concert 71st Emmy Awards ESPN historical drama USA Network dc 2019 Lifetime Christmas movies MCU Star Trek Grammys President BBC TV Land The CW political drama Valentine's Day Marathons Logo Ellie Kemper comic cancelled TV series 20th Century Fox Christmas Dark Horse Comics Hallmark YA dramedy Lucasfilm free movies Rom-Com Character Guide Tarantino Cannes news Vudu Animation A&E blockbuster Holiday Quiz Chilling Adventures of Sabrina Women's History Month Biopics E! Winners TCA zombie Endgame ghosts 2015 cartoon spanish language latino NYCC Mindy Kaling Interview binge quibi Comic Book Cartoon Network foreign VICE Kids & Family Cosplay facebook period drama video on demand chucky green book child's play WGN screen actors guild slashers Teen science fiction Pride Month Classic Film directors Video Games WarnerMedia joker Mary poppins Sci-Fi Acorn TV transformers SDCC teaser twilight cancelled television Food Network Hear Us Out Epix comics Musicals dragons Tubi Crunchyroll movies Walt Disney Pictures E3 revenge RT21 unscripted Warner Bros. Black Mirror Tumblr Netflix Thanksgiving Action sitcom Emmy Nominations richard e. Grant GoT travel Baby Yoda boxoffice serial killer FOX zombies criterion 21st Century Fox Pirates movie Lionsgate Shondaland Brie Larson 2020 psychological thriller films Travel Channel sequel sag awards theme song DGA series Peacock festivals universal monsters cults OWN DC Comics Fantasy Film Festival composers mockumentary ABC Family based on movie Box Office San Diego Comic-Con Avengers Musical documentaries crossover comedies 4/20 IFC Films Turner National Geographic Writers Guild of America Disney streaming service ITV Funimation LGBTQ supernatural FX Country scary movies Oscars biography VOD die hard Binge Guide BBC America Rocky Shudder Hallmark Christmas movies