TAGGED AS: Box Office, movies, news
Christmas may have come and gone this week, but for movie theaters, every day feels like the holiday during the school break. Almost any film can become a hit during this time, unless you’re a 47 Ronin or Assassin’s Creed, but even auteurist horror has people’s attention this season. That and more PG-rated all-ages fare than you can shake a stick at, plus a music biopic, Nicole Kidman taking care of more than one agency, and the true story of a female boxer who only struck gold in the ring. All this and more, including a twist at the top of the leaderboard.
Last week there was some surprise that there was such a gulf between the openings of Sonic and Mufasa. Was the Disney prequel headed for Lightyear levels of rejection while kids were more enamored with the exploits of a blue hedgehog? Apparently not, because Mufasa: The Lion King held over the holiday. Despite getting bested by Sonic from Friday to Sunday, Mufasa made $37.1 million over the weekend; a 5% increase over its opening. It led the way on Christmas day ($14.7 million vs. $10.3 million) and made $63.8 million over the five-day stretch to bring its total to $113.4 million. Those may not be record-breaking numbers, but they do give us a better sense of where its headed.
Mufasa’s numbers put it around three other pre-Christmas releases (namely National Treasure: Book of Secrets, Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel, and Night at the Museum) which had made between $115-125 million in their first 10 days. Mufasa’s second weekend bested all of theirs, though, ranging between $35-37 million. The original Museum became the word-of-mouth champion of the former trio, finishing with just over $250 million, while the other two were nearly identical with $219.9 million and $219.6 million. Somewhere between $210-230 million seems like a reasonable domestic estimate for Mufasa at the moment. Worldwide, the film is over $328 million and should eventually hit half a billion with no problem. That’s a far cry from one of the biggest grossers of all-time in its 2019 predecessor, but it should still ultimately register as another success for Disney.
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 looked like it was going the other direction this weekend. In fact, it appeared to be going that way since last weekend. Early estimates after its strong start suggested an opening in the $72 million range. By the time the final numbers came out on Monday, Sonic was at $60 million. That was still a good chunk of change, but rarely are the estimates so far off. In no way should this be interpreted as a failure, as another $38 million over the weekend plus the nearly $60 million it has made since Christmas has the film already at $137.5 million. Those numbers are close to Sherlock Holmes, which had $138.7 million in its first 10 days (after a Christmas Day release) and a $36.6 million second weekend.
Sonic and Mufasa have been trading victories all week and the latter may ultimately have the final roar, but the Hedgehog is headed somewhere past $210 million domestic, more than enough to become the highest-grossing film in the franchise to date. And if it can come close to matching the second film’s international tally, the $122 million Paramount production would get itself over $400 million and become the studio’s biggest success of the year. Right now it stands at $211 million.
The first film that A24 ever took out for a wide release in its opening weekend (2,046 theaters compared to their previous high of Kevin Smith’s Tusk in 602 theaters) was Robert Eggers’ The Witch. It opened to $8.8 million and finished with $25.1 million. Their release of his follow-up, The Lighthouse, did not do quite as well, with $10.8 million, but given the tone and material, that still wasn’t too shabby. Three years later, Eggers made The Northman with Focus, a $90 million production that grossed $34.2 million domestic and another $35.4 million internationally. In five days, his fourth film, Nosferatu, has outgrossed them all.
A $21.2 million weekend is the finishing touch on a $40.3 million stretch since Christmas, a holiday where genuine horror (not the horror of war, The Bucket List, or Rob Marshall musicals) has not exactly thrived outside of the first two Scream films. The story on the film’s bottom line will be written more clearly with next week’s dropoff, but for now, it ranks 12th amongst Christmas Day openings in their first five days. Before Nosferatu entered the picture, half of the top 10 films on that list earning $27.6-$42 million from Dec. 25-29 reached $100 million, and half did not (The Color Purple, Valkyrie, Ali, Stepmom, and Michael). The $50 million-budgeted Nosferatu hopes the overseas market will be down with another Dracula tale, as does Focus, which is hoping to cross $100 million globally for one of their films for the first time since Downton Abbey in 2019.
There was certainly no west for the Wicked (apologies) as Jon M. Chu’s Part One for Universal made an estimated $19.5 million over the weekend (up 37% from last week) and $31.4 million over the holiday, bringing its 38-day total to $424.2 million. That is 24th all time behind Avengers: Age of Ultron ($438.1 million) and ahead of The Dark Knight Rises ($422.2 million), Frozen II ($421.6 million), and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever ($418.9 million). Frozen II is Wicked’s best counterpart right now, as it made $16.8 million in its post-Christmas weekend, putting it right on track to hit the $475+ million domestic estimates we’ve been touting for weeks. Globally the film has roared past $634 million and is on its way towards $700 million to make it a big success for the studio. The film will be available on VOD starting New Years Eve.
Wicked may have won the war against Moana 2 on the domestic side, but the Disney sequel has its number on the global stage. Not that it hasn’t fought the good fight in the U.S., making another $18.2 million this weekend , $28.2 million since Christmas, and over $394 million total in just 33 days of release. It’s also just outside of the Top 25 all time for that stretch of time, as it prepares to become the 46th film ever to cross $400 million at the domestic box office. Worldwide, the film is over $882 million and it will soon join Inside Out 2, Deadpool & Wolverine, and Despicable Me 4 in the $900+ million realm for 2024. It needs $969.2 million for Disney to have the top 3 global grossers of the year.
Outside of the top five but still having a decent start is James Mangold’s A Complete Unknown. The Searchlight Bob Dylan biopic with Timothee Chalamat made $11.6 million over the weekend and $23.1 million since its Christmas Day launch. That’s more than a bit below the $31.8 million summer season start for the Elton John biopic Rocketman, which finished with over $96 million domestic and $195 million worldwide. With a budget in the $60-70 million range, A Complete Unknown is going to have to do somewhere in that vicinity to turn a theatrical profit. Awards season could help extend its run, as it should be a lock for a Best Actor nod and is in the running for Best Picture as well.
Speaking of A24, they have another sophomore effort they are fostering in Halina Reijn’s Babygirl. Their release of her debut, Bodies Bodies Bodies, grossed $11.4 million in the summer of 2022, and now her adulterous drama with Nicole Kidman has made $7.2 million in its first five days of release. Last year, The Iron Claw opened just before Christmas and made $8.5 million through Dec. 26 and went on to make over $35 million with no awards help at all. Babygirl may not reach those heights but could still double the release of Bodies.
Hanging on in eighth place is Ridley Scott’s Gladiator II, making an estimated $6.9 million since Christmas and bringing its 38-day total to over $163.1 million. It is one of 12 movies this year to gross over $400 million worldwide, but it may be the only one not to turn a theatrical profit. Angel Studios’ Homestead made $5.3 million since Christmas, bringing its total to $12.8 million, the third-highest gross for the company behind Sound of Freedom ($184.1 million) and Cabrini ($19.5 million). Finally, at No. 10 is Rachel Morrison’s boxing drama The Fire Inside, with Ryan Destiny and Brian Tyree Henry. The Amazon release, written by Mufasa director Barry Jenkins, is the best-reviewed wide release of the week and has made $4.3 million since Christmas.
In only its third week, Sony’s Kraven the Hunter is out of the top 10 with just $1.7 million, bringing its domestic total to $21.3 million. Kraven’s counterpart from just two weeks ago, The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim, made only $455,000. The $30 million production has made only $8.5 million. In its first 19 days of release, The Return of the King only had three single days that grossed less than what Rohirrim has made in 17. Lionsgate’s The Best Christmas Pageant Ever, meanwhile, has made more than Kraven and Rohirrim combined, earning another $335,000 to bring its total to $39.7 million. Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist made $203,000 in seven theaters this weekend, bringing its total gross to $687,000 as it gears up for Oscar voting to begin in a couple of weeks.
Sideshow/Janus’ animated Flow made $195,000 and has made $2.2 million to date. Finally, Better Man, the Robbie Williams-as-a-chimpanzee biopic from the director of one of the biggest word-of-mouth successes ever — The Greatest Showman — opened to $18,000 in six theaters.
55%
88%
Mufasa: The Lion King
(2024)
– $37.1 million (3-day) / $63.8 million (5-day), $113.4 million total
88%
96%
Sonic the Hedgehog 3
(2024)
– $38 million (3-day) / $59.9 million (5-day), $137.5 million total
86%
75%
Nosferatu
(2024)
– $21.2 million (3-day) / $40.3 million (5-day), $40.3 million total
89%
95%
Wicked
(2024)
– $19.5 million (3-day) / $31.4 million (5-day), $424.2 million total
61%
86%
Moana 2
(2024)
– $18.2 million (3-day) / $28.2 million (5-day), $394.6 million total
78%
96%
A Complete Unknown
(2024)
– $11.6 million (3-day) / $23.1 million (5-day), $23.1 million total
76%
51%
Babygirl
(2024)
– $4.3 million (3-day) / $7.2 million (5-day), $7.2 million total
71%
82%
Gladiator II
(2024)
– $4.1 million (3-day) / $7 million (5-day), $163.1 million total
35%
72%
Homestead
(2024)
– $3.1 million (3-day) / $5.4 million (5-day), $12.9 million total
95%
95%
The Fire Inside
(2024)
– $2 million (3-day) / $4.3 million (5-day), $4.3 million total
Erik Childress can be heard each week evaluating box office on Business First AM with Angela Miles and his Movie Madness Podcast.
[box office figures via Box Office Mojo]
Thumbnail image by ©Disney
