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Phase Five has been a mixed bag for the Marvel Cinematic Universe, consisting of not only one of its biggest successes but also its greatest failure. The franchise is certainly relying on name recognition in the hopes of continuing its kickstart of the post-Endgame world, but is it attracting any more than its core audience? Marvel is not the only universe with a sequel out this weekend, but both are certainly relying on their international fans to turn them into successes.
On first glance the money made by Captain America: Brave New World would make for a lovely lottery windfall for some lucky player. In this young year, it already easily owns the biggest opening weekend and the highest gross to date, soon to become the first to cross $100 million. What’s that you say? A Marvel movie didn’t make $100 million in its first three days? Actually, Brave New World barely made $100 million in its first four days, though the current estimates are optimistic. What might blow your mind is just how many have achieved that. Not just limiting to the MCU, but Marvel characters have been responsible for 25 motion pictures (including Spider-Man, Deadpool, and X-Men films) that opened to over nine digits in a single weekend. On that list, Brave New World ranks 32nd. Don’t like the fully loaded list? Fair enough. For just within the MCU, the opening ranks 24th.
That has to be a tad disconcerting to the powers that be, especially when its $87.8 million three-day opening is not much higher than Thor: The Dark World ($85.73 million), X-Men Origins: Wolverine ($85.05 million, just $308 lower than Doctor Strange), or Black Widow ($80.36 million), which opened in the middle of a pandemic with a home viewing option. Reducing the overall Marvel list down to just the MCU, the highest-grossing domestic release for a film to open below $90 million was indeed Doctor Strange with $232.6 million. As far as short-term goals, that is a number Brave New World would love to hit for a minor victory. If the $180 million pricetag being reported is accurate (with its multiple, multiple reshoots), the additional $92 million overseas this weekend is not the greatest comfort if there is fear of a major drop-off next weekend.
As far as satisfying its fans and critics, though, the MCU has been disappointing — maybe more so the critics. But despite fan criticism that film critics have been either paid off by Marvel to say nicer things than the work over at DC, or that they’re just automatically harsh to comic book movies (the arguments have zero consistency), please remember this. Up until Eternals in 2021 — that is 13 years of the MCU — none of the films (not even Thor: The Dark World or 2008’s Brave New World prequel, The Incredible Hulk) received a Rotten rating on the Tomatometer. After Eternals (Rotten at 47%) the only other Rotten score was achieved by Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (46%). Even The Marvels has a 62%. Brave New World just became the third worst-reviewed of the Universe with a split 50% with critics. Among those surveyed by Cinemascore, this is the first time an MCU film was saddled with a grade as low as a B-.
The Chinese adventure fantasy, Ne Zha, made $722.5 million overseas back in 2019. That’s just $3.69 million in the states, but still quite a haul. The sequel, Ne Zha 2, opened in China on Jan. 29. In three days it grossed $137 million (take that, Brave New World), and three days later it tripled that amount. By its eighth day, it had made over $684 million. On Feb. 8, it became the highest-grossing Chinese film of all time with $958 million. That is more than The Force Awakens made in North America. Ne Zha 2 opened on this continent this weekend, and it grossed a modest $7.2 million over the weekend and $8.2 million through the holiday. As of this weekend, the film had made $1.54 billion. That is more than Marvel’s The Avengers and is good enough to be the 11th highest-grossing film of all-time.
If there are two series that can thank their international fanbase for keeping them going over the years it is Paddington and Bridget Jones. The latter had its fourth and final chapter debut on Peacock this week in the U.S., while overseas it was in theaters and outsold Barbie in presales. Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy also just happened to get the highest critical score of the series and grossed $35.5 million internationally. Add that to the $620+ million the first three films made overseas.
Paddington in Peru, meanwhile, has been out across the pond since November and had accumulated over $84 million up until this weekend. Domestically the film made $13 million over the weekend and an estimated $16 million through the Presidents Day holiday. That is slightly better than Paddington 2’s $11 million, which translated into a disappointing $40.8 million after the $76.2 million haul of the first film. However, with a $95 million combined pricetag, those first two movies still grossed a combined $486 million globally, both also individual successes. Paddington in Peru arrives with a solo pricetag nearly as high as those first two films combined ($90 million) and is going to need those international dollars to turn a theatrical profit. $115.8 million in three months is not even half of what either of the first two entries did.
Maybe horror fans were listening last week when I wondered where their genre support was, because over the Valentine’s Day weekend, Heart Eyes actually increased business nearly 20% to earn a $9.8 million haul. Horror fans may not be showing up in droves, but with over $22.5 million in 11 days, this film is about halfway towards a profit without a dollar registered overseas yet. Last week’s competition, on the other hand, is not doing as well. Both Heart Eyes and Love Hurts cost $18 million. The Ke Huy Quan starrer with the savage reviews fell lightly to $4.2 million over the weekend and an estimated 11-day total of just $12.6 million. It has made just another million internationally so far. Heart Eyes’ sci-fi/horror/comedy counterpart, Companion, finished in ninth place with $1.8 million. Its estimated total through Monday is $19 million.
Turns out that Dog Man was not that negatively impacted by the arrival of Paddington. The animated film that led the box office for two consecutive weeks took a huge drop last week (61.6%) and appeared poised to lose even more if families switched over from dog to bear. Except Dog Man held steady, from a 61.6% drop last week to just a 30% drop this week with $9.8 million over the weekend and $12.6 million estimated through the holiday. That puts the film at $69.6 million and about three million below the pace of Percy Jackson & The Olympians: The Lightning Thief, which had a $9.5 million third weekend. After last week’s fall, Dog Man looked to be topping out around $80 million. This week’s rebound now puts it on pace closer to $90 million. It has made another $17.6 million internationally.
Mufasa: The Lion King officially won the domestic battle over Sonic the Hedgehog 3 last week (Sonic will have over $234 million Monday) and is now making its play to cross the $250 million line in North America. Another $4.7 million through the holiday puts the film at over $241 million. Globally it is over $686 million — or what Ne Zha 2 made in just a week in China. But Disney can’t complain too much, as it is definitely another winner, even if, like Brave New World, it is not nearly in the vicinity of its predecessors.
We are midway through February and the top three films of the year are a Marvel film, a non-franchise animated film and One Of Them Days. The Sony release made $3.3 million over the holiday to bring it to nearly $44 million total. That’s more than Den of Thieves 2, Flight Risk, and Wolf Man. These are solid numbers for a film led by a primarily Black female cast when you consider how miniscule that list continues to be. Hidden Figures ($169.3 million), Girls Trip ($115.1 million), Dreamgirls ($103.3 million), The Woman King ($67.3 million), and Waiting to Exhale ($67 million) are some of the most notable examples. This weekend put One of Them Days past 2019’s Little, which starred Marsai Martin, Regina Hall, and Issa Rae and grossed $40.8 million. Sony Classics also has Becoming Led Zeppelin, which expanded from 369 IMAX theaters into 1,039 this weekend and made $1.7 million over the weekend and $2 million through the holiday. That brings the documentary to $5.6 million..
Flight Risk is out of the top 10 in its fourth weekend, grossing $1.5 million to bring its total to $28 million. James Mangold’s A Complete Unknown made $1.08 million over the weekend and an estimated $1.48 million through the holiday bringing its total over $71 million. Moana 2 came in just under a million with $989,000 to bring its domestic total to $458 million. The release of the 2024 Oscar Nominated Short Films made $840,000 in 320 theaters. It will expand further next weekend. Matthew Rankin’s Certified Fresh Universal Language, released by Oscilloscope, made $41,000 in just 2 NY/LA theaters.
Less than a year after wowing the summer box office with Longlegs, Osgood Perkins is back with The Monkey, adapted from the Stephen King novella. Neon has again been holding select screenings across the country for the past month to build awareness and maximize critical effect.
Erik Childress can be heard each week evaluating box office on Business First AM with Angela Miles and his Movie Madness Podcast. [box office figures via Box Office Mojo]
Thumbnail image by ©Marvel/©Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
