Trophy Talk

Rotten Tomatoes Predicts the 2022 Emmy Winners

Abbott Elementary, Only Murders in the Building, Succession, Dopesick, and The White Lotus are a few of the standout titles we expect to score some trophies on Monday.

by | September 9, 2022 | Comments


 Kenan Thompson will host the 74th Emmy Awards

(Photo by NBC)

Competition is fierce for the 74rd Primetime Emmy Awards that will be announced on Monday. Presented by the Television Academy and airing on NBC with a livestream on Peacock, the event is hosted by Kenan Thompson.

According to our predictions, the wins will be spread across numerous titles, networks, and streamers. If anyone is the big winner on Monday, we expect it will be Hulu and HBO.

Related: Print the Rotten Tomatoes 2022 Emmys Ballot

In the comedy categories, Abbott Elementary should make a splash along with Only Murders in the Building, while drama Succession will take multiple awards. Limited series Dopesick and The White Lotus also stand to collect a few trophies each.

The quality of the performances of the strongest contenders are a given in most of the acting categories, so we’ve spent less time on flattery and more focusing on the political considerations that may make a difference between two or more nominees. Read on to find out who we think will take home Emmys on Monday.

Disagree with our picks? Let us know who you think will win in the comments.

Outstanding Comedy Series

Only Murders In The Building stars Steve Martin, Martin Short and Selena Gomez

(Photo by Hulu)

What’s nominated?

What will win? Only Murders in the Building

And why? Experts seem to be evenly betting on Abbott Elementary and last year’s winner Ted Lasso, but we’re bucking their predictions with our pick, Only Murders in the Building, in part because of its Certified Fresh 100% score, the highest Audience Score of all of the nominees, and beloved stars that cross generations. Some of the shine is off last year’s winner Ted Lasso, as the personal issues of its star and executive producer Jason Sudeikis have become part of the awards conversation and tarnished the show’s feel-good image. Watch for Hacks to possibly upset all of our expectations.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Abbott Elementary stars Quinta Brunson

(Photo by Pamela Littky/ABC)

Who’s nominated?

Who will win? Brunson

And why? Last year’s winner Smart is in a close race with Brunson, according to expert predictions, but we’re expecting Abbott Elementary creator and star Brunson to be rewarded for the ABC comedy’s “empathetic yet sidesplitting critique of the U.S. education system,” according to the series’ season 1 Critics Consensus. It perhaps should not be part of the equation in this category that Brunson’s character Janine Teagues is simply more likeable than Smart’s acerbic Deborah Vance, but we expect that affection along with widespread and deserved admiration for Brunson’s achievements to translate into a trophy. On the Tomatometer front, three of the six nominees’ series are Certified Fresh at 100%, including Hacks. Abbott Elementary missed that distinction by only one negative review (a controversial one at that). To make our predictions, even in the acting categories, we’re also considering the Audience Score for the eligible seasons, and Abbott Elementary has a slight edge with 90% compared to Hacks’ 87%. It’s safe to say this category is solidly a two-person race, despite the popularity of each of the other nominated actresses in the industry and the fact that the eligible seasons of both The Great and Insecure boast Tomatometer and Audience scores in line with Hacks.

Read also: 2022 Fall TV Survey: The Most Anticipated Returning Series, New Shows, and Films

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Steve Martin in Only Murders In The Building

(Photo by Craig Blankenhorn/Hulu)

Who’s nominated?

Who will win? Martin

And why? Despite his protestations, Sudeikis’ personal drama has likely torpedoed his chances of getting a trophy this year — the stink of hypocrisy now hangs in the air between art and artist. We’re betting that Steve Martin and Bill Hader are now frontrunners and that Martin has an edge because of the likeability of his character — look at that face! — and his cross-generational appeal.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

ABBOTT ELEMENTARY stars Janelle James

(Photo by Pamela Littky/ABC)

Who’s nominated?

Who will win? James

And why? The experts are split over whether James will win the category or one of the Hannahs will take it. Last year’s winner Waddingham has a Ted Lasso problem, unfortunately, which does not in any way diminish her performance — the winds of change, how they sometimes blow. To us, that leaves Einbinder and James, and we’re guessing the latter will prevail because of the phenomenon that Abbott Elementary has become and the signal sent by its superior Audience Score. This is one category, however, in which we could be dead wrong and a seeming three-way split could elevate a another nominee. Could previous winners in this category Kate McKinnon or Alex Borstein receive a boost?

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Brett Goldstein in Ted Lasso season 2

(Photo by Colin Hutton/Apple TV+)

Who’s nominated?

Who will win? Goldstein

And why? Goldstein and Winkler have split experts’ opinions on a winner in this category. We think Goldstein will pull it off despite the shadow cast over Ted Lasso this year — Roy Kent is his own phenomenon and the character had a dynamic arc in season 2 that should help the actor prevail.

Outstanding Drama Series

Succession season 3 key art

(Photo by HBO)

What’s nominated?

What will win? Succession

And why? We’d love nothing better than to see Better Call Saul or Ozark finish off their runs with a gold statue, but Succession will not be denied the prize, no matter how much some people are betting on Squid Game. Tomatometer and Audience scores taken together, Saul and Severance are in the strongest positions, but we still think the industry will reward Succession’s uniformly strong ensemble cast, powerful writing, and complex, topical storyline.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Zendaya in Euphoria season 2

(Photo by Eddy Chen/HBO)

Who’s nominated?

Who will win? Zendaya

And why? The Euphoria star, winner in this category in 2020, returned with another transcendent performance in season 2. Lynskey’s and Linney’s names have surfaced as major challengers, but we’re betting on Zendaya, even though the series overall lags behind Yellowjackets and Ozark in Tomatometer score.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Brian Cox, Succession

(Photo by Peter Kramer/HBO)

Who’s nominated?

Who will win? Cox

And why? As much goodwill as Odenkirk has for his final season and for powering through a heart attack to complete it, there’s no denying the impact of Cox’s rollercoaster (in a good way) performance on season 3 of Succession. Lee has garnered as much recognition as Odenkirk and Cox, but we expect that Television Academy voters are going to reward Cox for a layered, precise, and all-around superior performance.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Rhea Seehorn in Better Call Saul season 6

(Photo by AMC)

Who’s nominated?

Who will win? Seehorn

And why? What happens when a category offers so much talent that not one of the actors dominates the buzz? We turn to the Tomatometer and Audience scores to help us decide, that’s what. By that measure, Seehorn take the category. The method is maybe one step up from throwing a dart in this case, however, and there’s a good chance that any one of the other contenders could surprise us here.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Matthew Macfadyen in Succession season 3

(Photo by Macall B. Polay/HBO)

Who’s nominated?

Who will win? Macfadyen

And why? This category appears to be a battle between Tom Wambsgans and Roman Roy. Macfadyen and Culkin have both previously been nominated in the category for those roles, but have taken no wins. This seems to be their year. We’re betting on Macfadyen because, just as Tom upped his game in the season, Macfadyen also unleashed a new dimension in his portrayal of the character. It’s difficult to imagine that any of the other nominees will be able to take this prize away from either of the two Succession actors.

Outstanding Limited Or Anthology Series


(Photo by Hulu)

What’s nominated?

What will win? Dopesick

And why? The White Lotus comes into this competition with so much love from Hollywood; in fact, a good number of TV critics are betting it will take the award here. An almost equal number are betting on Dopesick. We’re looking at the Audience Score — 93% for Dopesick and 73% for The White Lotus — and betting the Hulu drama will be rewarded for its stellar performances and compelling examination of a despicable crime against the American people.

Outstanding Lead Actress In A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie

The Dropout

(Photo by Beth Dubber/Hulu)

Who’s nominated?

Who will win? Seyfried

And why? Though James and Paulson each pulled off impressive transformations to portray their real-life characters, “Seyfried’s disquieting portrayal of Elizabeth Holmes brings fresh blood to this retelling of recent history,” according to Rotten Tomatoes’ Critics Consensus of the limited series.

Outstanding Lead Actor In A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie

Dopesick -- “First Bottle” - Episode 101 -- Richard Sackler begins to launch a powerful new painkiller, a rural doctor is introduced to the drug, a coal miner plans her future, a DEA Agent learns of blackmarket pills, and federal prosecutors decide to open a case into OxyContin. Dr. Samuel Finnix (Michael Keaton), shown. (Photo by: Antony Platt/Hulu)

(Photo by Antony Platt/Hulu)

Who’s nominated?

Who will win? Keaton

And why? With such great performances in this category, Keaton has no right to so thoroughly dominate. And yet he does. If anyone could take this away from him, Firth and Garfield are the top candidates.

Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie

Kaitlyn Dever in Dopesick -- “The 5th Vital Sign” - Episode 103

(Photo by Gene Page/Hulu)

Who’s nominated?

Who will win? Dever

And why? We absolutely get the love that Coolidge is bringing into this contest for her role as bereaved, lovelorn, and entitled Tanya. We can’t help but think, however, that Dever had a heavier lift in her Dopesick role as OxyContin addict/Purdue Pharma victim Betsy Mallum. We’ll see Monday if the Television Academy agreed.

Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie

Murray Bartlett in The White Lotus

(Photo by Mario Perez/HBO)

Who’s nominated?

Who will win? Bartlett

And why? Bartlett’s thorough unraveling as resort manager Armond happens over the course of the season, but somehow also feels unexpectedly swift — a downward spiral with trapdoors and hidden rooms. It’s an acting magic trick that Bartlett pulls off effortlessly. Who could deny him this prize? If anyone, Sarsgaard.

The 74th Emmy Awards ceremony airs live on Monday, September 12 at 5 p.m. PT / 8 p.m. ET on NBC and livestreamed on Peacock.

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