Weekend Box Office

Box Office Guru Preview: Golden Compass Sets Course For #1 Debut

Atonement, Juno open in limited release.

by | December 6, 2007 | Comments

New Line hopes to breathe some life into the North American box office with the launch of its pricey adventure film The Golden Compass which stands as the frame’s only new wide release. Directed by Chris Weitz (About a Boy), the PG-13 film aims to capture a large crowd including the family audience and fans of sci-fi and fantasy. Nicole Kidman and Daniel Craig, who proved in the summer flop The Invasion that their names only carry so much commercial weight, reunite to star in the effects-heavy film.

Working in its favor is the fact that all other studios have avoided programming their major offerings onto this weekend’s schedule. In fact it is quite rare to see two consecutive frames with only one national opener each. Media attention is concentrated on it this week and with multiplexes dumping their aging November flops, Compass will secure extra screens. The studio’s marketing push has been powerful and awareness is high which makes sense as New Line is hoping for a new fantasy franchise that can keep the cash rolling in for years to come. Teens and young adults who frequent the multiplexes the most should come out in solid numbers since they’ve seen every other worthy film already. Older adults will be a little harder to reach since holiday shopping is a major distraction on weekends right now plus reviews for Compass have not exactly been stellar.

Although the property will target many of the same folks who have dropped billions on fantasy smashes like The Lord of the Rings, Harry Potter, and The Chronicles of Narnia, the source material is not as popular plus there is already backlash from some in the religious community for the anti-Christian material in the Philip Pullman books. Reaching the $65.6M opening of Narnia from this very weekend two years ago will be impossible. Instead, a debut closer to the $27.5M of Beowulf last month could be in order since there may be much overlap. Compass has more appeal for younger kids and females so a bigger bow should result. Opening in over 3,000 theaters, The Golden Compass might premiere to the tune of $33M this weekend.


Nicole Kidman in The Golden Compass

With most of the big boys taking the weekend off from releasing films wide, indie distribs will once again seize the opportunity to platform their end-of-year pics and begin limited runs for possible kudos contenders. By law, you can’t have an awards season without at least one costume drama so Focus Features joins forces with Keira Knightley with Atonement which bows on Friday in 26 sites. The R-rated period piece also stars James McAvoy and Vanessa Redgrave and has already grossed $31M overseas with over two-thirds of that total coming from the U.K. since its launch there in early September.


James McAvoy and Keira Knightley in Atonement

Fox Searchlight counters in seven theaters with its teen pregnancy comedy Juno starring Michael Cera, Jason Bateman, Jennifer Garner, and Ellen Page in the title role. The PG-13 coming-of-age pic opened on Wednesday in New York and Los Angeles and is director Jason Reitman‘s follow-up to Thank You For Smoking which grossed $24.8M for Fox Searchlight in the spring of 2006. Reviews have been strong across the board for both Juno and Atonement.


Ellen Page and Olivia Thirlby in Juno

After back to back stints of wearing the box office crown, the princess comedy Enchanted is now preparing to take a step back this weekend thanks to the arrival of Queen Kidman. The Disney hit will see some formidable competition for kids, but the overall drop should not be too large. A 35% slide to around $10.5M could result. That would give Enchanted a charming $83M after 19 days of play.

With girls lining up for Giselle and company, their brothers have been taking a historical adventure with the computer-animated action pic Beowulf which has been holding its own since its debut. Golden Compass will also be a threat since there is much audience overlap. But Beowulf‘s good legs suggest that a drop of 35% could be in order here as well. That would leave the Paramount project with about $5M pushing the cume up to $76M.

Sony’s holiday reunion film This Christmas and Fox’s assassin thriller Hitman both witnessed larger sophomore declines so a fall of 40% each should occur this weekend. Christmas would take in just under $5M for a $42M total while Hitman should bank $3.5M for a $36M sum.

LAST YEAR: Mel Gibson scored his second straight number one opening for a historical foreign language film he directed with Apocalypto which debuted on top with $15M. The Buena Vista release went on to capture a solid $50.9M. Three-time champ Happy Feet was bumped down to second with $12.9M in its fourth frame. Sony’s romantic comedy The Holiday bowed in third with $12.8M for Sony. The Cameron DiazKate Winslet pic went on to gross $63.2M domestically and a stunning $200M worldwide. Studio stablemate Casino Royale slipped to fourth with $8.9M. Warner Bros. launched its action thriller Blood Diamond in fifth with a mediocre $8.6M on its way to $57.4M from North America and $171M globally. Opening in seventh was the studio’s other new wide release of the frame, the family comedy Unaccompanied Minors, with only $5.8M leading to a weak $16.6M final.

Author: Gitesh Pandya, www.BoxOfficeGuru.com

Tag Cloud

television Captain marvel Biopics Trophy Talk true crime zombies TIFF Film Festival Horror Disney streaming service 45 Acorn TV YA singing competition Pixar Food Network Pop Fall TV NBC period drama spain Video Games Countdown CBS DC Comics RT21 Extras cars Shudder streaming Podcast Certified Fresh Animation Valentine's Day Ovation 2016 USA zombie YouTube Red game of thrones Britbox Syfy video psychological thriller vampires science fiction medical drama adventure FXX Ghostbusters Sundance Superheroe Nat Geo serial killer Polls and Games Tarantino miniseries crossover Year in Review DC streaming service Stephen King Character Guide Logo award winner Shondaland BBC America Cartoon Network TV San Diego Comic-Con Fox News game show Comedy History facebook Trivia space children's TV tv talk technology biography discovery Comics on TV Opinion IFC spider-man ITV Cannes El Rey Fantasy natural history Hulu Musical 2015 TLC revenge FX TBS Mary Tyler Moore Premiere Dates Freeform Star Trek Crackle Lifetime CW Seed Tomatazos CBS All Access Music comiccon Super Bowl ABC Family TV Land festivals sitcom Holidays CNN BBC Chernobyl crime BET toy story Thanksgiving PBS NYCC robots GIFs transformers Epix Winners unscripted boxoffice Mary Poppins Returns VICE binge book Trailer APB theme song Rocketman Masterpiece Walt Disney Pictures Creative Arts Emmys DGA CMT politics A&E elevated horror 2017 Black Mirror harry potter cults GLAAD Ellie Kemper Bravo Universal The CW Marvel Writers Guild of America President Sci-Fi Sundance Now series DirecTV Television Academy YouTube Premium disaster supernatural adaptation PaleyFest jamie lee curtis green book police drama based on movie Anna Paquin Mudbound Summer Amazon Prime Video doctor who Pride Month Paramount Network X-Men Elton John spy thriller Chilling Adventures of Sabrina Marathons Dark Horse Comics Amazon crime thriller Warner Bros. historical drama crime drama anthology dc Rocky kids Calendar Sony Pictures what to watch Action TCM MTV cats witnail 2019 social media richard e. Grant Awards Tour Star Wars diversity The Witch SXSW Disney Vudu talk show 24 frames dramedy cinemax ratings dceu Comedy Central comic Mindy Kaling Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt LGBT spinoff SundanceTV GoT Box Office Watching Series HBO SDCC Emmys animated Best and Worst IFC Films mutant First Reviews First Look MCU sports travel Election Sneak Peek RT History Cosplay romance 2018 ESPN Amazon Prime Toys Awards psycho Western Women's History Month strong female leads Netflix Esquire Martial Arts Film Drama USA Network Emmy Nominations Nickelodeon ghosts Adult Swim Comic Book Schedule latino zero dark thirty TCA Rom-Com Columbia Pictures thriller Interview FOX MSNBC Teen Winter TV Mary poppins hispanic 21st Century Fox Red Carpet Nominations cooking Apple 71st Emmy Awards Quiz TNT political drama WarnerMedia stand-up comedy golden globes WGN LGBTQ Pet Sematary justice league Set visit ABC spanish language aliens Country VH1 Superheroes Rock south america blaxploitation hist 20th Century Fox Binge Guide E3 anime Family National Geographic E! Tumblr Pirates Brie Larson OWN cops sequel mockumentary Arrowverse Spike Spring TV dragons The Arrangement Starz Kids & Family DC Universe Christmas Lionsgate foreign Lucasfilm 007 finale Oscars Reality Showtime Song of Ice and Fire war Reality Competition Grammys movies AMC Mystery quibi New York Comic Con Musicals American Society of Cinematographers Photos docudrama Disney Channel composers Heroines casting nature Infographic See It Skip It Peacock Paramount Spectrum Originals HBO Max TruTV TCA 2017 teaser