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October was not nearly the month that some had hoped it would be and that primarily falls on the shoulders of one particular DC musical sequel. This is not to say it has not had its headlines. Terrifier 3 has been a great story. Smile 2 has done fine. September holdovers Beetlejuice Beetlejuice and The Wild Robot have contributed nicely. All that being said, while the month may indeed be the lowest on record post-pandemic, the autumn season didn’t even need the success of Folie A Deux to have its best turnout since 2019, likely coming in just shy of a billion dollars. If only the new Venom movie had done business like its predecessors, the season may have crossed that threshold.
Do you remember the great Venom vs. A Star Is Born battle of 2018? It was Romance vs. Bromance, and Sony’s Marvel spin-off opened to $80.2 million. Bradley Cooper’s remake started with $42.9 million on the same weekend and ultimately bested Ruben Fleischer’s film by $1.6 million and change. It was one of the rare instances of gigantic hits (both over $200 million domestic) opening on the same date. Venom, of course, won the worldwide battle by almost $420 million, grossing $856 million globally. The sequel directed by Andy Serkis, Venom: Let There Be Carnage, had an equally great story to tell when it opened to $90 million, the biggest opening of the pandemic to date in October 2021 and one that was bested that year only by Sony’s Spider-Man: No Way Home. Its $213.55 million domestic gross was almost identical to the original’s $213.51 million, even though its global total was understandably down. And by down, we mean it still made $506.8 million.
That brings us three years later to Venom: The Last Dance. The series is on its third director, Kelly Marcel (writer of the first two, who also contributed rewrites to earlier Tom Hardy films Bronson and Mad Max: Fury Road), and we’re now in the era of comic book fatigue — or mediocrity, or disinterest, or whatever label you want to put on it — for something not involving the combo meal of two characters in a crossover event. With its $51 million debut, The Last Dance is the fifth $50+ million start for Sony this year. To put it in context, that’s a lower start than last year’s The Flash and less than $5 million higher than The Marvels.
Even if The Last Dance grosses higher than those films — and that seems likely — a finish around $125 million won’t even get the film halfway to profit. Thankfully, that is where its fans overseas kick in. The reported budget of the film was $120 million, and international territories have already added $124 million to the gross. That could be more in one weekend than it grosses in North America in its whole run. As long as it doubles up its domestic gross on the international side, Sony will have gotten three solid hits out of this series, continuing a good year that has included Bad Boys: Ride or Die, It Ends With Us, and The Garfield Movie. That’s more than enough to put aside the failures of Madame Web, Harold and the Purple Crayon, and the fifth Ghostbusters.
Smile 2 nearly matched the original’s opening last week, besting it by around just half a million. It would have liked to have matched the original’s second week drop, too, of just 18.3%. Instead, it fell nearly 60% down to $9.5 million. It is now nearly a full $10 million off the first film’s 10-day total of $50.7 million and has grossed barely half of its predecessor’s second weekend. So let’s stop comparing the two and look back at the numbers of Happy Death Day, which had a $9.3 million second weekend and a 10-day gross of $40.6 million. That is a better view of where Smile 2 may be headed, which would be in the $55 million range. Internationally, the film has made another $43 million, and even with that domestic estimate, the film will have no problem achieving over $100 million globally and turning a theatrical profit.
Chris Sanders’ The Wild Robot is currently enjoying the profit phase of its release as well. It passed $200 million globally before the weekend, and with another $6.8 million, its domestic total is at $111.6 million. The film has been slowly losing its pace with Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs; it was ahead last week by $6 million, but only by a little over $3 million this week. Cloudy won the fifth weekend $8 million to $6.5 million, but the $125-130 million estimate is holding steady for now, if closer to the lower number. The Wild Robot has added another $121 million internationally already, and Universal should be happy with the returns for this.
Having a decent showing is Conclave, Edward Berger’s follow-up to his Oscar-winning Netflix adaptation of All Quiet on the Western Front. This PG-rated papal thriller with Ralph Fiennes is considered an awards contender this year as well, and adults put $6.6 million in the collection plate of 1,753 theaters. It’s only the second $5+ million start for Focus Features this year after Jeff Nichols’ The Bikeriders started with $9.6 million in June and finished with $21.6 million. That’s also the only film they have had gross over $10 million total domestically this year, even if the Pharrell Williams Lego doc Piece by Piece is getting close after making another $720,000 this weekend; that film stands at $8.88 million. Focus is hoping they can make Conclave play into awards season. Last year they platformed Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers on this same weekend and it went on to gross $20.3 million.
Speaking of great stories and films into profit, Damien Leone’s Terrifier 3 continues to draw an audience on the pre-Halloween weekend. $4.7 million this weekend brings its total to $44.5 million. At this point it is one of the 25 most profitable films of the year, a list that also includes fellow horror films Alien: Romulus, A Quiet Place: Day One, Longlegs, Speak No Evil, Tarot, and The Strangers: Chapter 1. Smile 2 could ultimately join that group as well.
A24 tried the same approach with John Crowley’s We Live In Time, starting with a five-theater launch, then moving it last week into 985 theaters. This weekend it tripled its theaters (2,924), the biggest move the studio has made after an initial limited release. Halina Reijn’s Bodies Bodies Bodies doubled from 1,290-to-2,541 theaters in weekend three and grossed $2.37 million. (They are also releasing the Reijn’s Babygirl with Nicole Kidman in December). Sofia Coppola’s Priscilla last year moved from 1,359-to-2,361 theaters, and it made $4.6 million, ultimately grossing over $20 million. We Live In Time added $4.8 million to bring its 17-day total to $11.7 million. The studio’s bump of Ex Machina back in 2015 to 1,255 theaters in its third weekend got it $5.34 million and it went on to make over $25 million. We Live In Time is almost halfway there.
Wrapping up the top ten we still have Tim Burton’s Beetlejuice Beetlejuice on its quest for $300 million domestic. Adding $3.1 million brings the total to $288.6 million. Its pace animal, Attack of the Clones, had $291.2 million after its eighth weekend of $2.45 million. It remains on track as it also approaches an end run of over $450 million worldwide. Inflation notwithstanding, this is Burton’s third highest-grossing film and third most profitable, up there with Alice In Wonderland and Batman.
Sean Baker’s Anora moved from six theaters into 34 this weekend and grossed $909,000 to grab eighth place. That’s a $26,730 per-theater average for the Neon release. In 1997 Paul Thomas Anderson’s Boogie Nights went from two theaters in its opening to 30 theaters in its second week to gross $869,146, and Barry Jenkins’ Moonlight made $850,114 in its second weekend after expanding to 36 theaters, just to show you the kind of company that Anora is keeping. Boogie Nights and Moonlight grossed $26.4 million and $27.8 million, respectively.
Todd Phillips’ Joker spent nine weeks in the top 10 in 2019. Joker: Folie a Deux has fallen out after just three. Another 72% drop to $600,000 brings it to just $57 million. It is now going to get outgrossed by Transformers One, which made $720,000 for a total of $57.9 million. The roughly $200 million production has just crossed $201 million globally, which helps it clear a handful-plus of films that are actually bigger bombs. But how about this for its record? The worst multiple for a film opening in over 3,000 theaters that didn’t have pandemic implications to it (Disney’s Onward was released just before it started) or day-and-date streamers (like Halloween Ends and Five Nights at Freddy’s) is 1.76, which was achieved by Eli Roth’s Borderlands. Joker: Folie a Deux is currently at approximately 1.51. Even Onward finished its brief 11-day run with a 1.57 multiple.
Also outside of the top 10, Coralie Fargeat’s The Substance fell only 30% and grossed $605,000 to bring its total up to $14.5 million. The Nightmare Before Christmas made another $507,000 to bring its re-issue from Disney to $5.8 million. For more adult animation, Adam Elliot’s Memoir of a Snail, released by IFC, made $64,000 in five theaters.
Sony hopes to have a 1-2 punch when they release Robert Zemeckis’ new drama Here, with Tom Hanks and Robin Wright, next week. The 30-years-in-the-making Forrest Gump reunion that spans decades more than that is hoping to get better play than when Sony released Zemeckis’ The Walk in the wake of The Martian back in 2015. Getting an even smaller peek is Clint Eastwood’s new film Juror #2, which Warner Bros. is inexplicably releasing into only 50 theaters and reportedly not even going to release box office grosses on. No matter how upset they may be over the reviews and grosses for their Joker musical, that’s a helluva way to treat a 94-year-old filmmaker who may have delivered his final hurrah to a studio he has been (with only a very few exceptions like Absolute Power and Changeling) fiercely loyal to since 1976. As for films studios do care about, Searchlight is releasing Jesse Eisenberg’s sophomore directorial effort A Real Pain, starring himself and Kieran Culkin. The Sundance pickup is tracking well with critics and expected to make a few waves this awards season, as is Steve McQueen’s Blitz, which is getting a limited run from Apple before heading to its streaming service on Nov. 22.
38%
80%
Venom: The Last Dance
(2024)
– $51 million ($51 million total)
84%
82%
Smile 2
(2024)
– $9,5 million ($40.8 million total)
98%
98%
The Wild Robot
(2024)
– $6.8 million ($111.6 million total)
92%
82%
Conclave
(2024)
– $6.6 million ($6.6 million total)
78%
86%
We Live in Time
(2024)
– $4.8 million ($11.7 million total)
77%
86%
Terrifier 3
(2024)
– $4.7 million ($44.5 million total)
77%
80%
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
(2024)
– $3.1 million ($288.6 million total)
99%
89%
Anora
(2024)
– $909,000 ($1.66 million total)
84%
90%
Piece By Piece
(2024)
– $721,000 ($8.8 million total)
89%
98%
Transformers One
(2024)
– $720,000 ($57.9 million total)
Erik Childress can be heard each week evaluating box office on Business First AM with Angela Miles and his Movie Madness Podcast.
[box office figures via Box Office Mojo]
Thumbnail image by ©Sony Pictures
