TAGGED AS: Box Office, movies, news
Two things were on the watch list for this weekend. The first would be what story the second week of the latest Marvel escapade could tell about its ultimate fate. The second was whether or not horror fans would finally show up this year. The good news is that we got answers on both. The bad news — for one of them at least — is that the fans may be trailing off when you don’t deliver.
Captain America: Brave New World had enough juice to remain on top for a second straight week, but that’s about where the good news ends for it. A 68.3% drop from last week’s holiday weekend down to $28.2 million brings its 10-day total to $141.2 million. That is the third-worst drop in MCU history, and the worst two were in 2023 with Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (-69.9%) and The Marvels (-78.1%). There are only eight other films that were unable to hit $150 million in their first 10 days. Three of them (Black Widow, Shang Chi, and Eternals) were all part of the 2021 transition from pandemic to vaccines. The others were the first two Thor films, the first two Ant-Man films, and the first Captain America. Shang Chi and the Thors, at least, had better second weekends than Brave New World.
The worse news is that Brave New World is already $25-26 million behind the pace of Quantumania, and even that film had a better sophomore weekend with $31.9 million. That suggests the likelihood that Cap is going to fail to reach $200 million domestic. Currently the film has made another $148.2 million internationally, but that was only after a $35.3 million weekend. This could ultimately struggle to reach $400 million, a number only four MCU films failed to achieve: The Marvels being an all-timer, The Incredible Hulk (2008), Captain America: The First Avenger (2011), and the pandemic hybrid release of Black Widow in 2021. Even with the optimistically reported budget of $180 million, this is going to be another loser for Marvel and Disney.
Last year, Neon pulled off one of the best marketing build-ups of the year for Osgood Perkins’ Longlegs. It amounted to a $22.4 million opening in July and over $74 million domestic and another $52.5 million globally on just a $10 million budget. It was the indie studio’s biggest success to date. So, of course, they wanted to be in business with Perkins again, and thus we have The Monkey. Based on the 1980 short story by Stephen King, the film opened to $14.2 million. That’s the best non-sequel, non-remake horror opening since, you guessed it, Longlegs.
Nosferatu opened to $21.6 million and Smile 2 began with $23 million. Those, along with Terrifier 3, were among the genre standouts in 2024, which was already a comedown from the 2023 horror boon that, beginning with M3GAN in January, had 10 films open to $18 million or more. Granted, seven of them were sequels or reboots, but on a whole there were a dozen horror films that year to gross over $40 million, and all but a few (even with lower grosses) were still successful thanks to miniscule budgets. Companion and Presence at least fall into that latter category in 2025, and while admittedly still early, we are still 0-for-3 in horror releases in over 3,000 theaters hitting $40 million, and only four did it in 2024. The Monkey hopes to be the first, though no horror film in February has opened to less than $17 million and cleared $40 million since The Silence of the Lambs in 1991. Nevertheless, the $10+ million budgeted film is going to be another winner for Perkins and Neon.
Over to a toy no one should have a problem playing with, Paddington in Peru dropped a spot to $6.5 million this weekend and has now made $25.2 million in 10 days. That puts the film slightly ahead of Paddington 2, which had made $24.8 million in that period. Overall the numbers aren’t great for the film, which, even with over $125 million overseas, likely won’t crack the $183-187 million that the first two films did there. Even if it does, and Peru bests Two here, the cost of the new film ($90 million) will prevent this one from being a success like they were. Maybe a fourth film will end up on a streaming service like Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy was last week. That film has grossed over $67 million overseas. In theaters.
Just when it looked like audiences were quickly abandoning Dog Man after it fell over 61% in its second weekend, it has been relatively stable ever since. A 29% drop last week over the holiday and another 39.8% drop this weekend to $5.9 million puts the animated film at $78.7 million which is close to what the final estimate was just two weekends ago. Gnomeo and Juliet had a $7.2 million fourth weekend with $84 million in 24 days. It came up just shy of $100 million — $32,000 shy. Dog Man is now looking at a final gross in the $90 million region. It is over $105 million worldwide and thus should be in profit for Dreamworks and Universal.
Heart Eyes also had a nice stay last week with a Valentine’s Day boost, putting it 19% higher than its opening weekend. This week was beyond the horror standard with a 71.7% drop down to $2.8 million. Heart Eyes is still the leader of the genre for 2025 until The Monkey bangs its drum and passes it. With $26.7 million total domestic and just $1.5 million overseas so far, the film is still searching for over $50 million to break even. The Jim Carrey thriller The Number 23 had a $4.3 million third weekend back in 2007 and $30.2 million in the bank after 17 days. It finished with $35.1 million. Heart Eyes is hoping to reach $30 million domestic to get it 60% of the way.
In sixth place is last week’s Fresh Surprise, the Chinese phenomenon Ne Zha 2. It has now surpassed Inside Out 2 with $1.7 billion to become the highest-grossing animated film globally of all time. In the U.S. it is up to just $14.8 million after $3 million in its second weekend. There are projections that the film will climb over $2 billion and become one of the top five grossing films of all time. No film has ever grossed as much as this one has in a singular market, and it’s the first film not to originate in Hollywood to cross a billion dollars.
Filmed back in 2020 and originally scheduled for release in March of 2022, Lionsgate’s The Unbreakable Boy finally got its release. The film is based on a true story starring Zachary Levi and directed by Jon Gunn, who gave us last year’s Ordinary Angels. Lionsgate’s release of that film last February opened to $6.1 million and totaled with $19.1 million domestic. The Unbreakable Boy started its run with $2.5 million in 1,687 theaters. That’s a lower per-theater average ($1,481) than LG’s delayed Wonder tale, White Bird, which began with $1.5 million ($1,530 PTA) and ended its run with less than $9 million worldwide.
Rounding out the top 10 we have the Hindi historical drama Chhaava, which earned $2.6 million, good enough for seventh place, followed by Mufasa: The Lion King with $2.5 million. It’s up to $245.3 million domestic and over $698 million worldwide and seeks to become the seventh film of 2024 to surpass $700 million globally. Lawrence Lamont’s One of Them Days continues to add to its place as one of the most successful films with a black female cast; another $1.4 million brings its total to $46 million.
Out of the top 10 in its third weekend is the Ke Huy Quan action vehicle Love Hurts, which is down to $1.1 million and just below $14.5 million total. Becoming Led Zeppelin is down to $993,000 in 940 theaters this weekend, bringing the documentary’s total up to $7.4 million. James Mangold’s A Complete Unknown made $750,000 to bring its domestic total up to $72.3 million. The 2005 Oscar Nominated Short Films dropped just 13.8% and made another $735,019 and $2.16 million to date. Companion made $615,000 to cross $20 million. It’s made over $34 million worldwide.
Despite the diminishing returns, Captain America: Brave New World is still the likely favorite to win the box office three weeks in a row. The widest release is going to be Focus’ underwater rescue drama Last Breath with Woody Harrelson and Simu Liu. GKids will have the anime release Mobile Suit Gundam GQuuuuuuX: Beginning. In limited release you can look for the Hindi filmmaking dramedy Superboys of Malegaon from Amazon, as well as My Dead Friend Zoe from last year’s SXSW, starring Sonequa Martin-Green, Ed Harris, Natalie Morales and Morgan Freeman, which currently boasts a perfect 100% on the Tomatometer.
Erik Childress can be heard each week evaluating box office on Business First AM with Angela Miles and his Movie Madness Podcast. [box office figures via Box Office Mojo]
Thumbnail image by ©Marvel/©Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
