It is undeniable that this year’s awards season feels emblematic of 2025 itself, both from a film and industry perspective. For as many thrilling, high-watermark moments as there were, there were just as many that felt puzzling and completely unexpected, which is indicative of an industry in flux. One of the clearest examples came at the very start of the season. The Critics Choice Awards kicked off the televised awards calendar, as the Golden Globes shifted to the second weekend of January to better align with CBS’s football programming. While the Globes remain just as valuable and widely discussed, that move has undeniably cost them some of their traditional first-out-of-the-gate prestige.
That said, it remains to be seen whether the tastes of the newly assembled Golden Globes voting body will align more closely with Critics Choice winners or eventual Oscar voters, or whether they will continue to surprise in ways that feel puzzling or slightly out of step, much like this year’s SAG nominations. While the Actor Awards (formerly the SAG Awards) are unlikely to directly influence Golden Globe voters, the tenor of those nominations does highlight a broader truth about the 2025 film year: There was no single monocultural moment for anything save Sinners and One Battle After Another.
Yes, many audiences showed up for the two WB frontrunners and films like Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, and Wicked: For Good, but if a film fell outside that narrow band of prestige conversation, it is fair to wonder whether it was truly seen by voting bodies at all. Based on this year’s SAG nominations, one might assume that international features barely registered with voters. At the same time, there was clear enthusiasm for smaller, lesser-known titles like Song Sung Blue and even television projects such as The Beast Within Me.
This disparity underscores an essential reality of awards season. Guild voting bodies vote very differently from critics groups or invite-only organizations like the Golden Globes or the Academy. As we move deeper into the season and toward our second major set of predictions, it is important to contextualize the wins and nominations already on the board but not be ruled by them.
Another factor that receives far less attention but is increasingly difficult to ignore is the impact of industry-wide slowdowns on guild voting. As SAG and other voting guilds have been hollowed out by a lack of consistent employment, the pool of members able and willing to vote has narrowed. While all members are technically eligible for screenings, only those with dues fully paid are eligible to vote. As more working actors struggle to maintain steady employment, participation in guild voting continues to shrink. Thus leading to unpredictability.
For the Golden Globes, the focus must remain on the new voting body and its emerging patterns over the past three years. Like Globes bodies of the past, this group appears to have clear preferences, and familiar favorites can emerge quickly. Regardless of what unfolds on Sunday, contenders who came up empty last weekend may be running out of opportunities. For many, the Golden Globes and Actor Awards represent the final chance to secure a meaningful win before Oscar nominations are announced on January 22.
We will be watching closely to see how names like Ariana Grande, Stellan Skarsgård, Benicio del Toro, and Wunmi Mosaku fare. Still, the most compelling storyline centers on the two dueling Best Picture contenders from Warner Bros. Competing in opposite categories, it is entirely plausible that Sinners could take Best Drama while One Battle After Another claims Best Comedy or Musical.
These two films have been trading the top spot on our awards leaderboard all season, and they may head into Oscar nominations without a clear frontrunner. Either way, we will be here each week breaking down the results, updating the leaderboard, and helping you stay one step ahead as you fill out your ballot on Oscar night.
If you’re going to be watching the Golden Globes and want to beat your buddies on a ballot, we’ve got you covered with our choices for who’s likely to win on the big night (and those who we feel truly deserve to win). Our awards expert, Jacqueline Coley, considers everything from industry buzz and the tastes and historical leanings of the Golden Globes to our Tomatometer and Popcornmeter Scores to read the tea leaves and place her bets. How right will she be? Bookmark this page for Sunday night and find out.
What will win?
One Battle After Another
Why?
It’s amusing but true that the film that’s on pace to match the feat set by Schindler’s List (sweeping every major award prize from LAFCA and NYFFC to the Oscars) features an entire plot point about what “this p***y don’t pop” for, but here we are.
What will win?
Sentimental Value
Who will win?
Rose Bryne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Who will win?
Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent
Who will win?
Jessie Buckley – Hamnet
Who will win?
Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme
Why?
How else are they gonna have 50 shots of his date during the ceremony if he doesn’t? Kidding, but truly, Timothée has given us six years of incredible work, yet his turn in Marty Supreme manages to surpass all of it.
Who will win?
Amy Madigan – Weapons
Why?
As much as we want to see Ariana Grande rewarded for her absolutely stellar performance, Gladys just is that girl, and we all just have to accept it at this point.
Who will win?
Jacob Elordi – Frankenstien
Why?
This could very easily go to Stellan Skarsgård or Benicio del Toro, but Jacob Elordi is the best part of Frankenstein, and we just have to be prepared to see him towering over his competition all season.
Who will win?
Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
Why?
Because he’s winning it all.
Who will win?
Ryan Coogler – Sinners
Why?
Because of what Mary said to Stack at the train station. Y’all know the line, and that’s why.
What will win?
Sentimental Value
What will win?
K-Pop Demon Hunters
Why?
I am not saying it’s just because of the music, but it has a lot to do with it. We sealed the Honmoon and gave that boy back his soul. The least we can do is get some hardware out of the deal.
What will win?
Ludwig Göransson – Sinners
Why?
He’s this generation’s John Williams; just give him a couple of decades, and you will see.
What will win?
“Golden” – K-Pop Demon Hunters
Why?
WE’RE GOING UP, UP, UP!!! Did you just sing that in your head? Enough said.
What will win?
The Pitt
Who will win?
Rhea Seahorn – Pluribus
Who will win?
Noah Wyle – The Pitt
What will win?
The Studio
Why?
Y’all, they filmed an entire episode at the Golden Globes.
Who will win?
Jean Smart – Hacks
Who will win?
Seth Rogen – The Studio
What will win?
Adolesence
Who will win?
Sarah Snook – All Her Fault
Who will win?
Stephen Graham – Adolescence
Who will win?
Erin Doherty – Adolescence
Who will win?
Owen Cooper – Adolescence
The 2026 Golden Globes ceremony, hosted by Nikki Glaser, will air live on CBS on Sunday, Jan. 11 at 5 p.m. PT/8 p.m. ET, in addition to streaming on Paramount+ in the United States.
Thumbnail image by ©Netflix
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