TAGGED AS: Academy Awards, Awards, Nominations, Oscars
(Photo by Courtesy of Universal Pictures)
It’s time for our yearly Oscar nomination predictions, and even with this massive run of awards shows recently, the awards obsessives (yes, that includes us) are dialed in. And we should be, as several categories have been so dominated that folks are already calling them over. As much as we would like to say the competition is steep in categories like Best Score, Best Director, Best Supporting Actress, Cinematography, Production Design, and Editing, the combined might of Barbie, The Holdovers, and Oppenheimer has those races pretty much sewn up.
However, there is still a lot to be said about those who will join them on Oscar night. It’s not cliche to say that it is an honor just to be nominated, and for many of these actors, this is their best chance to level up within the industry. Consider what an Oscar nomination would do for names like Greta Lee and Charles Melton. Melton will likely not be competitive against the star power of Robert Downey Jr. And Ryan Gosling, but he will have supreme bragging rights if his name is called next Tuesday. From Riverdale to an Oscar nomination is quite a leap. This Thursday’s BAFTA nominations were all over the place, but they did give us a peek into some of the surprises we’ll see later on our nominations list.
If you’ve been checking our Awards Leaderboard, you know that Oppenheimer has been running away with the lion’s share of wins and is currently on track to be the most awarded film that we’ve ever had since we began tracking. However, the more compelling conversation is around which potential foreign language entries are going to compete, whether or not a film like Spider-Man Across the Spider-Verse will be able to catapult into the Best Picture race, and whether or not those “cuspy” nominations for names like Sterling K, Brown and Andrew Scott can sneak in.
(Photo by A24)
Since Parasite won Best Picture in 2019, the international influence on the Academy has been deep and noteworthy, as evidenced by the internationally favorable shortlist and the fact that films like The Zone of Interest, Anatomy of a Fall, and Past Lives are competing for Best Picture. We are starting to see that Bong Joon-ho’s hope of an Academy with a more global focus, hurdling “the one-inch barrier of subtitles,” has, in fact, come true. But as we say every year, nominations morning is built for snubs and surprises, and we’ll be here to recap those after they are announced on Tuesday. Either way, buckle up. We expect a very fun ride all the way to Oscar night.
Our Awards Editor, Jacqueline Coley, has made these guesses on who will be nominated next Tuesday. She based her picks on potential nominees’ critical reception (hello, Tomatometer!), the nominations and wins they’ve been receiving from guilds and other groups during awards season, and what we’re hearing from voters and other industry folks — aka the “buzz.”
Read on for our picks for the 2024 Oscar nominations. Let us know who you think will be nominated in the comments, and tune in on Tuesday on ABC at 8 a.m. EST/5 a.m. PST to see if we — or you — were right.
(Photo by Warner Bros Pictures)
Who will be nominated?
93%
American Fiction
(2023)
81%
The Color Purple
(2023)
96%
Anatomy of a Fall
(2023)
95%
Past Lives
(2023)
93%
Poor Things
(2023)
93%
Oppenheimer
(2023)
88%
Barbie
(2023)
78%
Maestro
(2023)
97%
The Holdovers
(2023)
93%
Killers of the Flower Moon
(2023)
Possible Spoilers: The Zone of Interest
Shoulda Been a Contender: All of Us Strangers, Fair Play, A Thousand and One
Who will be nominated?
Bradley Cooper – Maestro
Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction
Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon
Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer
Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers
Possible Spoilers: Andrew Scott – All Us Strangers, Colman Domingo – Rustin
Shoulda Been a Contender: Jamie Foxx – The Burial
Who will be nominated?
Carey Mulligan – Maestro
Emma Stone – Poor Things
Margot Robbie – Barbie
Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon
Greta Lee – Past Lives
Possible Spoilers: Sandra Huller – Anatomy of a Fall, Natalie Portman – May December
Shoulda Been a Contender: Fantasia Barrino – The Color Purple, Teyana Taylor – A Thousand and One
Who will be nominated?
Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction
Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things
Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer
Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon
Ryan Gosling – Barbie
Possible Spoilers: Charles Melton – May December, Dominic Sessa – The Holdovers
Shoulda Been a Contender: Paul Mescal – All of Us Strangers.
Who will be nominated?
Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple
Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers
Jodie Foster – Nyad
Penelope Cruz – Ferrari
Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer
Possible Spoilers: Sandra Huller – The Zone of Interest
Shoulda Been a Contender: Claire Foy – All of Us Strangers
Who will be nominated?
95%
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
(2023)
97%
The Boy and the Heron
(2023)
95%
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
(2023)
73%
Elemental
(2023)
59%
The Super Mario Bros. Movie
(2023)
Who will be nominated?
93%
Killers of the Flower Moon
(2023)
93%
Oppenheimer
(2023)
93%
Poor Things
(2023)
78%
Maestro
(2023)
88%
Barbie
(2023)
Who will be nominated?
93%
Poor Things
(2023)
88%
Barbie
(2023)
58%
Napoleon
(2023)
93%
Killers of the Flower Moon
(2023)
84%
Priscilla
(2023)
Who will be nominated?
Christopher N0lan – Oppenheimer
Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things
Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest
Greta Gerwig – Barbie
Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon
Possible Spoilers: Celine Song – Past Lives, Alexander Payne – The Holdovers
Shoulda Been a Contender: Takashi Yamazaki – Godzilla Minus One
Who will be nominated?
100%
20 Days in Mariupol
(2023)
99%
Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie
(2023)
94%
American Symphony
(2023)
100%
To Kill a Tiger
(2022)
100%
In the Rearview
(2023)
Possible Spoilers: Four Daughters,
Shoulda Been a Contender: Kokomo City
Who will be nominated?
97%
Fallen Leaves
(2023)
97%
The Taste of Things
(2023)
93%
The Zone of Interest
(2023)
100%
20 Days in Mariupol
(2023)
90%
Society of the Snow
(2023)
Possible Spoilers: Io Capitano, The Promised Land, Totem
Shoulda Been a Contender: Anatomy of a Fall
Who will be nominated?
93%
Oppenheimer
(2023)
85%
The Killer
(2023)
95%
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
(2023)
97%
The Boy and the Heron
(2023)
94%
American Symphony
(2023)
Possible Spoilers: Saltburn, The Zone of Interest
Shoulda Been a Contender: Elemental
Who will be nominated?
“It Never Went Away” from American Symphony
“I’m Just Ken” from Barbie
“What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
“The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot
“Road To Freedom” from Rustin
Possible Spoilers: “Can’t Catch Me Now” from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes, “Keep It Movin'” from The Color Purple
Shoulda Been a Contender: “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Who will be nominated?
70%
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
(2023)
82%
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
(2023)
99%
Godzilla Minus One
(2023)
68%
The Creator
(2023)
96%
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
(2023)
Possible Spoilers: Poor Things
Shoulda Been a Contender: Oppenheimer
Who will be nominated?
93%
American Fiction
(2023)
93%
Oppenheimer
(2023)
93%
Killers of the Flower Moon
(2023)
93%
Poor Things
(2023)
88%
Barbie
(2023)
Possible Spoilers: All of Us Strangers, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margret.
Shoulda Been a Contender: Blackberry, Pricilla
Who will be nominated?
97%
The Holdovers
(2023)
95%
Past Lives
(2023)
91%
May December
(2023)
96%
Anatomy of a Fall
(2023)
78%
Maestro
(2023)
Possible Spoilers: Saltburn
Shoulda Been a Contender: Fair Play, A Thousand and One
The 2024 Academy Awards nominations will be announced on January 23, 2024 at 5am PST/8am EST. Check back at Rotten Tomatoes to see who gets a nod.
Are you as obsessed with awards as we are? Check out our Awards Leaderboard
On an Apple device? Follow Rotten Tomatoes on Apple News.
EDITORS NOTE: An early version had The Killer listed instead on Killers of the Flower Moon for Best Adapted Screenplay.
