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Rotten Tomatoes Predicts the 2022 Emmy Nominees

The 74rd Emmy Awards nominations will be announced on Tuesday, and we're predicting a big morning for Only Murders in the Building, Dopesick,Ted Lasso, Hacks, Succession, and more. See our expert picks ahead of the big announcement.

by | July 8, 2022 | Comments

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Nominations for the 74th Emmy Awards will be announced on Tuesday, July 13, and Rotten Tomatoes has a few thoughts on who will be contenders for 16 of the top awards.

Hacks, Ted Lasso, Barry, Succession, and their lead cast members will return to stake a claim for nominations in the top awards categories, though they’ll have to watch out for Only Murders in the Building and Squid Game in their respective comedy or drama categories. We also expect Dopesick and The White Lotus and their casts to dominate the categories the limited series compete in. Read on to find out who we think has the best chances at scoring a nomination and who might upset our expectations.

The nominations will be announced at 8:30 a.m. PDT on Tuesday, July 12, with Curb Your Enthusiasm’s JB Smoove and Brooklyn Nine-Nine’s Melissa Fumero  hosting the virtual event.

Television Academy Chairman and CEO Frank Scherma will join them at the nominations announcement, which will stream live on Emmys.com. Come back to rottentomatoes.com on Emmys nominations morning to see the full list of nominees.

Who do you think will be nominated? Tell us in the comments!


Related: The Best TV Shows of 2022 (So Far)


Outstanding Comedy Series

Only Murders In The Building stars Steve Martin, Martin Short and Selena Gomez

(Photo by Hulu)

Who will be nominated?

98% Ted Lasso: Season 2 (2021)
99% Barry: Season 3 (2022)
100% Hacks: Season 2 (2022)
98% Only Murders in the Building: Season 2 (2022)
98% Abbott Elementary: Season 1 (2021)
92% The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel: Season 4 (2022)
96% Atlanta: Season 3 (2022)
100% What We Do in the Shadows: Season 3 (2021)

And why? Poor Ghosts and Reservation Dogs. We’d say those two shows are the dark horses for a nomination in the Comedy Series category, but with a lineup this strong, it’ll be hard to break in. Hacks and Ted Lasso lead the field; Barry, Atlanta, and The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel kept audiences waiting for a new season (pandemic), and delivered; Only Murders in the Building and Abbott Elementary are the standout newcomers here; and What We Do in the Shadows — like some of the other titles we expect will claim nominations — has that 100% Certified Fresh score on its qualifying season.


Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Hacks season 2 key art

(Photo by HBO Max)

Who will be nominated?

100% Hacks: Season 2 (2022) Jean Smart
98% Abbott Elementary: Season 1 (2021) Quinta Brunson
92% The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel: Season 4 (2022) Rachel Brosnahan
100% Insecure: Season 5 (2021) Issa Rae 93% Julia: Season 1 (2022) Sarah Lancashire
100% Only Murders in the Building: Season 1 (2021) Selena Gomez

And why? Hacks star Jean Smart is a lock for an acting nomination this year (as is her costar Hannah Einbinder in the Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series category). Other industry observers have The Flight Attendant’s Kaley Cuoco as a given in this category, but we’re looking at the Certified Fresh Tomatometer scores of the final season of Insecure (100%) and the first seasons of Julia (93%), and Only Murders in the Building (100%) and thinking that season 2 of Cuoco’s espionage comedy doesn’t quite meet that enthusiasm with its 86%. Does a higher Tomatometer score guarantee a show’s actors a slot among the Emmy nominees? Not necessarily; otherwise, The Great’s Elle Fanning would be on our shortlist because of season 2’s 100% Certified Fresh score or maybe Russian Doll’s Natasha Lyonne with season 2’s 97% Certified Fresh score. We’re also looking at audience scores on these seasons — Emmy voters are industry professionals, after all, not critics — and here’s how they stack up: Insecure season 5, 84% (35 votes); Julia season 1, 93% (87 votes), Only Murders in the Building, season 1, 93% (2,189 votes); The Flight Attendant season 2, 56% (137 votes);  and, because we mentioned them, The Great season 2, 88% (132 votes) and Russian Doll season 2, 70% (238 votes). It’s not an exact science, however. Cuoco, Fanning, Lyonne, or Tracee Ellis Ross (for the final season of black-ish) could all surprise us.


Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Bill Hader in Barry season 3

(Photo by Merrick Morton/HBO)

Who will be nominated?

99% Barry: Season 3 (2022) Bill Hader
98% Ted Lasso: Season 2 (2021) Jason Sudeikis
- - black-ish: Season 8 (2022) Anthony Anderson
96% Atlanta: Season 3 (2022) Donald Glover
98% Only Murders in the Building: Season 2 (2022) Steve Martin
98% Only Murders in the Building: Season 2 (2022) Martin Short

And why? How will last year’s winner Sudeikis fare against 2019 winner Hader or 2017 winner Glover? This is a fight for laughs that we’re very glad to watch. Anderson, meanwhile, has been nominated every year, so he’ll surely get a nomination for the final season of black-ish. Martin has one Emmy and Short has two, but in other categories. Potential nominees: Nicholas Hoult (The Great), Rhys Darby (Our Flag Means Death), or Alan Tudyk (Resident Alien).


Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Hannah Waddingham in Ted Lasso season 2

(Photo by Apple TV+)

Who will be nominated?

98% Ted Lasso: Season 2 (2021) Hannah Waddingham
98% Ted Lasso: Season 2 (2021) Juno Temple 
79% Saturday Night Live: Season 47 (2021) Kate McKinnon 
98% Only Murders in the Building: Season 2 (2022) Amy Ryan
98% Abbott Elementary: Season 1 (2021) Janelle James
100% Hacks: Season 2 (2022) Hannah Einbinder 
92% The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel: Season 4 (2022) Alex Borstein
99% Barry: Season 3 (2022) Sarah Goldberg

And why? Ted Lasso’s Waddingham, who won this category last year, and Temple will face off against each other again. With the return of The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, everyone who snags a nomination in the category will have to contend with Borstein, who’s won this category twice for her role in the series. Who might bump one or more of our predictions off the nominee list come Tuesday? Cecily Strong for Saturday Night Live, Yvonne Orji for Insecure, and Sheryl Lee Ralph for Abbott Elementary.


Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Brett Goldstein in Ted Lasso season 2

(Photo by Colin Hutton/Apple TV+)

Who will be nominated?

98% Ted Lasso: Season 2 (2021) Brett Goldstein
96% Atlanta: Season 3 (2022) Brian Tyree Henry
79% Saturday Night Live: Season 47 (2021) Kenan Thompson
79% Saturday Night Live: Season 47 (2021) Bowen Yang
99% Barry: Season 3 (2022) Henry Winkler
99% Barry: Season 3 (2022) Anthony Carrigan
92% The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel: Season 4 (2022) Tony Shalhoub
93% Julia: Season 1 (2022) David Hyde Pierce  

And why? Ted Lasso’s Goldstein won last year, and he’s again facing SNL talent for a spot in the Supporting Actor nominations. Atlanta and Barry have returned, however, and we’re expecting their actors to snag a nomination. Could also get a nomination: Ted Lasso’s Nick Mohammed or Barry’s Stephen Root.


Outstanding Drama Series

Succession season 3 key art

(Photo by HBO)

Who will be nominated?

97% Succession: Season 3 (2021)
95% Squid Game: Season 1 (2021)
85% Ozark: Season 4 (2022)
99% Better Call Saul: Season 6 (2022)
91% Yellowstone: Season 4 (2021)
97% Severance: Season 1 (2022)
97% Pachinko: Season 1 (2022)
86% Stranger Things: Season 4

And why? It really is a shame that Pachinko will have to face Succession, Squid Game, and the final seasons of Ozark and Better Call Saul. The Apple TV+ series is excellent drama and deserves a win. Such is life. But we’re just talking nominees right now, so congrats to all for a making it this far. What could spoil the party for our picks? Yellowjackets, the final season of This Is Us, and Euphoria’s second season are also strong contenders.


Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Zendaya in Euphoria season 2

(Photo by Eddy Chen/HBO)

Who will be nominated?

79% Euphoria: Season 2 (2022) Zendaya
85% Ozark: Season 4 (2022) Laura Linney
100% Yellowjackets: Season 1 (2021) Melanie Lynskey
97% Severance: Season 1 (2022) Britt Lower
79% The Gilded Age: Season 1 (2022) Carrie Coon
52% Killing Eve: Season 4 (2022) Jodie Comer

And why? This category has turned over entirely since last year, and with The Crown crew out of the race this year, Zendaya and Linney rise to the lead positions and other deserving talent are able to make it into the nominations. Some industry observers expect Jennifer Aniston (The Morning Show), Mandy Moore (This Is Us), and Kelly Reilly (Yellowstone) to grab nominations. We shall see on Tuesday.


Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Bob Odenkirk as Jimmy McGill - Better Call Saul _ Season 6

(Photo by Greg Lewis/AMC/Sony Pictures Television)

Who will be nominated?

99% Better Call Saul: Season 6 (2022) Bob Odenkirk
97% Succession: Season 3 (2021) Brian Cox
97% Succession: Season 3 (2021) Jeremy Strong
95% Squid Game: Season 1 (2021) Lee Jung-Jae
85% Ozark: Season 4 (2022) Jason Bateman
97% Severance: Season 1 (2022) Adam Scott

And why? With Better Call Saul wrapping up the series this month, it’s time for star Bob Odenkirk to get the recognition he deserves from Emmy voters. That said, he has heavy competition between the Succession leads of Cox and Strong and Bateman for Ozark’s final season. Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us) and Kevin Costner (Yellowstone) could knock our picks out of the nominations.


Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Yuh-Jung Youn in Pachinko,

(Photo by Apple TV+)

Who will be nominated?

97% Succession: Season 3 (2021) Sarah Snook
97% Succession: Season 3 (2021) J. Smith-Cameron
85% Ozark: Season 4 (2022) Julia Garner
95% Squid Game: Season 1 (2021) Jung Ho-yeon
99% Better Call Saul: Season 6 (2022) Rhea Seehorn
100% Yellowjackets: Season 1 (2021) Christina Ricci
97% Pachinko: Season 1 (2022) Yuh-Jung Youn
86% Stranger Things: Season 4 Millie Bobby Brown

And why? Here’s another category that we think will see two Succession nominees, an Ozark nominee (and previous winner in this category), and a Better Call Saul nominee who many feel is past due for recognition. The question is: How will they fare against an Academy Award winner (Pachinko’s Yuh-Jung Youn)? Other awards prognosticators have named Patricia Arquette (Severance) and Sydney Sweeney (Euphoria) as probable nominees.


Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Michael Mando in Better Call Saul _ Season 6, Episode 2

(Photo by Greg Lewis/AMC/Sony Pictures Television)

Who will be nominated?

97% Succession: Season 3 (2021) Kieran Culkin
97% Succession: Season 3 (2021) Matthew Macfadyen
97% Succession: Season 3 (2021) Nicholas Braun
99% Better Call Saul: Season 6 (2022) Michael Mando
99% Better Call Saul: Season 6 (2022) Giancarlo Esposito
95% Squid Game: Season 1 (2021) Park Hae-soo
67% The Morning Show: Season 2 (2021) Billy Crudup
97% Severance: Season 1 (2022) John Turturro

And why? Other awards watchers aren’t giving Mando much of a chance in this contest, but we’re sticking to our guns and betting that he’ll make the nominee list. He was, after all, the centerpiece of one of the year’s most heartbreaking moments on TV. (We also expect that, when it comes time for voting, teams Succession and Better Call Saul may split votes, leaving room for a winner from one of the other titles in this category.) If anyone might upset our expectations for nominees in this category, it might be Alan Ruck replacing one of his Succession co-stars or David Harbour for his gritty work on Stranger Things this season.


Outstanding Limited Series

Dopesick

(Photo by Hulu)

Who will be nominated?

89% Dopesick: Season 1 (2021)
90% The White Lotus: Season 1 (2021)
87% Under the Banner of Heaven: Limited Series (2022)
89% Gaslit: Season 1 (2022)
94% Maid: Limited Series (2021)
92% The Staircase: Limited Series (2022)

And why? The limited series category is so strong that the story here is almost not about who will get a nomination, but who should but won’t. Looking at you, Gaslit, Station Eleven, Pam and Tommy, and on and on. For our money, Dopesick and The White Lotus lead the pack, however. If you haven’t watched them yet, do yourself the favor.


TV Movie

Maddie Ziegler and Jenna Ortega in The Fallout

(Photo by HBO Max)

Who will be nominated?

91% The Fallout (2021)
86% The Survivor (2021)
81% Ray Donovan: The Movie (2022)
80% Chip 'n' Dale: Rescue Rangers (2022)
97% The House: Season 1 (2022)

And why? The Survivor and The Fallout are locks for nominations. Other awards prognosticators are picking Zoey’s Extraordinary Christmas and horror film Fresh, starring Sebastian Stan and Daisy Edgar-Jones, but we’re going with the animated Chip ‘n’ Dale: Rescue Rangers and The House (a single film made up of several stories, despite its appearance on a TV page in our database).


Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Movie

Maid s1 keyart MARGARET QUALLEY and RYLEA NEVAEH WHITTET

(Photo by Netflix)

Who will be nominated?

94% Maid: Limited Series (2021) Margaret Qualley
90% The Dropout: Limited Series (2022) Amanda Seyfried
83% Scenes From a Marriage: Limited Series (2021) Jessica Chastain
78% Pam & Tommy: Limited Series (2022) Lily James
89% Gaslit: Season 1 (2022) Julia Roberts
64% Inventing Anna: Limited Series (2022) Julia Garner

And why? Whether by looks or mannerisms or strange accents, Seyfried, James, and Garner entirely transformed themselves for their roles in this category, while Qualley, Chastain, and Roberts leaned into the drama of the roles they inhabited. Any in the trio of The First Lady actors — Viola Davis, Michelle Pfeiffer, and Gillian Anderson — could upset that balance in our predictions, though the title itself didn’t perform with critics and ended up with a 42% Tomatometer score.


Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Movie

Dopesick -- “First Bottle” - Episode 101 -- Richard Sackler begins to launch a powerful new painkiller, a rural doctor is introduced to the drug, a coal miner plans her future, a DEA Agent learns of blackmarket pills, and federal prosecutors decide to open a case into OxyContin. Dr. Samuel Finnix (Michael Keaton), shown. (Photo by: Antony Platt/Hulu)

(Photo by Antony Platt/Hulu)

Who will be nominated?

89% Dopesick: Season 1 (2021) Michael Keaton
87% Under the Banner of Heaven: Limited Series (2022) Andrew Garfield
- - Colin Firth
- - Ben Foster
83% Scenes From a Marriage: Limited Series (2021) Oscar Isaac
90% The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey: Limited Series (2022) Samuel L. Jackson

And why? Keaton steamrolls over this category with his performance as a rural doctor embroiled in the opioid crisis. Sebastian Stan has the best chance of beating one of our picks into the nominee pool for his portrayal of Mötley Crüe drummer Tommy Lee in Pam & Tommy.


Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Movie

Kaitlyn Dever in Dopesick -- “The 5th Vital Sign” - Episode 103

(Photo by Gene Page/Hulu)

Who will be nominated?

89% Dopesick: Season 1 (2021) Kaitlyn Dever
89% Dopesick: Season 1 (2021) Rosario Dawson
90% The White Lotus: Season 1 (2021) Jennifer Coolidge
90% The White Lotus: Season 1 (2021) Connie Britton
90% The White Lotus: Season 1 (2021) Alexandra Daddario
94% Maid: Limited Series (2021) Andie MacDowell
90% The Dropout: Limited Series (2022) Laurie Metcalf

And why? Coolidge is a favorite in this category, but Dever delivers a performance as strong as her 2019 Unbelievable role, for which she was criminally overlooked by the Emmys. If anyone is going to knock our picks out of this lineup, it’ll be Juliette Binoche for her unexpected performance in The Staircase or Betty Gilpin for her role in Gaslit.


Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie

Murray Bartlett in The White Lotus

(Photo by Mario Perez/HBO)

Who will be nominated?

90% The White Lotus: Season 1 (2021) Murray Bartlett
90% The White Lotus: Season 1 (2021) Steve Zahn
89% Dopesick: Season 1 (2021) Michael Stuhlbarg
89% Dopesick: Season 1 (2021) Peter Sarsgaard
90% The Dropout: Limited Series (2022) Naveen Andrews
78% Pam & Tommy: Limited Series (2022) Seth Rogen
94% Maid: Limited Series (2021) Nick Robinson

And why? Again, the Dopesick and White Lotus actors dominate. Not sure anyone could beat Bartlett’s momentum when it comes time for voting, though Rogen’s Pam & Tommy role comes close. Awards watchers also see Wyatt Russell as a contender for his role in Under the Banner of Heaven, Matthew Goode for The Offer, and William H. Macy for The Dropout. All in all, it’s great company to be in.


Nominations for the 2022 Emmy Awards will be announced 8:30 a.m. PDT on Tuesday July 12, 2022.  


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