Rotten Tomatoes Predicts the 2022 Emmy Nominees

Nominations for the 74th Emmy Awards will be announced on Tuesday, July 13, and Rotten Tomatoes has a few thoughts on who will be contenders for 16 of the top awards.

Hacks, Ted Lasso, Barry, Succession, and their lead cast members will return to stake a claim for nominations in the top awards categories, though they’ll have to watch out for Only Murders in the Building and Squid Game in their respective comedy or drama categories. We also expect Dopesick and The White Lotus and their casts to dominate the categories the limited series compete in. Read on to find out who we think has the best chances at scoring a nomination and who might upset our expectations.

The nominations will be announced at 8:30 a.m. PDT on Tuesday, July 12, with Curb Your Enthusiasm’s JB Smoove and Brooklyn Nine-Nine’s Melissa Fumero  hosting the virtual event.

Television Academy Chairman and CEO Frank Scherma will join them at the nominations announcement, which will stream live on Emmys.com. Come back to rottentomatoes.com on Emmys nominations morning to see the full list of nominees.

Who do you think will be nominated? Tell us in the comments!

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Related: The Best TV Shows of 2022 (So Far)

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Outstanding Comedy Series

(Photo by Hulu)

Who will be nominated?

98% Ted Lasso: Season 2 (2021)

99% Barry: Season 3 (2022)

100% Hacks: Season 2 (2022)

98% Only Murders in the Building: Season 2 (2022)

98% Abbott Elementary: Season 1 (2021)

92% The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel: Season 4 (2022)

96% Atlanta: Season 3 (2022)

100% What We Do in the Shadows: Season 3 (2021)

And why? Poor Ghosts and Reservation Dogs. We’d say those two shows are the dark horses for a nomination in the Comedy Series category, but with a lineup this strong, it’ll be hard to break in. Hacks and Ted Lasso lead the field; Barry, Atlanta, and The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel kept audiences waiting for a new season (pandemic), and delivered; Only Murders in the Building and Abbott Elementary are the standout newcomers here; and What We Do in the Shadows — like some of the other titles we expect will claim nominations — has that 100% Certified Fresh score on its qualifying season.

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Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

(Photo by HBO Max)

Who will be nominated?

100% Hacks: Season 2 (2022) Jean Smart

98% Abbott Elementary: Season 1 (2021) Quinta Brunson

92% The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel: Season 4 (2022) Rachel Brosnahan

100% Insecure: Season 5 (2021) Issa Rae

93% Julia: Season 1 (2022) Sarah Lancashire

100% Only Murders in the Building: Season 1 (2021) Selena Gomez

And why? Hacks star Jean Smart is a lock for an acting nomination this year (as is her costar Hannah Einbinder in the Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series category). Other industry observers have The Flight Attendant’s Kaley Cuoco as a given in this category, but we’re looking at the Certified Fresh Tomatometer scores of the final season of Insecure (100%) and the first seasons of Julia (93%), and Only Murders in the Building (100%) and thinking that season 2 of Cuoco’s espionage comedy doesn’t quite meet that enthusiasm with its 86%. Does a higher Tomatometer score guarantee a show’s actors a slot among the Emmy nominees? Not necessarily; otherwise, The Great’s Elle Fanning would be on our shortlist because of season 2’s 100% Certified Fresh score or maybe Russian Doll’s Natasha Lyonne with season 2’s 97% Certified Fresh score. We’re also looking at audience scores on these seasons — Emmy voters are industry professionals, after all, not critics — and here’s how they stack up: Insecure season 5, 84% (35 votes); Julia season 1, 93% (87 votes), Only Murders in the Building, season 1, 93% (2,189 votes); The Flight Attendant season 2, 56% (137 votes);  and, because we mentioned them, The Great season 2, 88% (132 votes) and Russian Doll season 2, 70% (238 votes). It’s not an exact science, however. Cuoco, Fanning, Lyonne, or Tracee Ellis Ross (for the final season of black-ish) could all surprise us.

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Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

(Photo by Merrick Morton/HBO)

Who will be nominated?

99% Barry: Season 3 (2022) Bill Hader

98% Ted Lasso: Season 2 (2021) Jason Sudeikis

- - black-ish: Season 8 (2022) Anthony Anderson

96% Atlanta: Season 3 (2022) Donald Glover

98% Only Murders in the Building: Season 2 (2022) Steve Martin

98% Only Murders in the Building: Season 2 (2022) Martin Short

And why? How will last year’s winner Sudeikis fare against 2019 winner Hader or 2017 winner Glover? This is a fight for laughs that we’re very glad to watch. Anderson, meanwhile, has been nominated every year, so he’ll surely get a nomination for the final season of black-ish. Martin has one Emmy and Short has two, but in other categories. Potential nominees: Nicholas Hoult (The Great), Rhys Darby (Our Flag Means Death), or Alan Tudyk (Resident Alien).

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Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

(Photo by Apple TV+)

Who will be nominated?

98% Ted Lasso: Season 2 (2021) Hannah Waddingham

98% Ted Lasso: Season 2 (2021) Juno Temple 

79% Saturday Night Live: Season 47 (2021) Kate McKinnon 

98% Only Murders in the Building: Season 2 (2022) Amy Ryan

98% Abbott Elementary: Season 1 (2021) Janelle James

100% Hacks: Season 2 (2022) Hannah Einbinder 

92% The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel: Season 4 (2022) Alex Borstein

99% Barry: Season 3 (2022) Sarah Goldberg

And why? Ted Lasso’s Waddingham, who won this category last year, and Temple will face off against each other again. With the return of The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, everyone who snags a nomination in the category will have to contend with Borstein, who’s won this category twice for her role in the series. Who might bump one or more of our predictions off the nominee list come Tuesday? Cecily Strong for Saturday Night Live, Yvonne Orji for Insecure, and Sheryl Lee Ralph for Abbott Elementary.

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Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

(Photo by Colin Hutton/Apple TV+)

Who will be nominated?

98% Ted Lasso: Season 2 (2021) Brett Goldstein

96% Atlanta: Season 3 (2022) Brian Tyree Henry

79% Saturday Night Live: Season 47 (2021) Kenan Thompson

79% Saturday Night Live: Season 47 (2021) Bowen Yang

99% Barry: Season 3 (2022) Henry Winkler

99% Barry: Season 3 (2022) Anthony Carrigan

92% The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel: Season 4 (2022) Tony Shalhoub

93% Julia: Season 1 (2022) David Hyde Pierce

 

And why? Ted Lasso’s Goldstein won last year, and he’s again facing SNL talent for a spot in the Supporting Actor nominations. Atlanta and Barry have returned, however, and we’re expecting their actors to snag a nomination. Could also get a nomination: Ted Lasso’s Nick Mohammed or Barry’s Stephen Root.

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Outstanding Drama Series

(Photo by HBO)

Who will be nominated?

97% Succession: Season 3 (2021)

95% Squid Game: Season 1 (2021)

85% Ozark: Season 4 (2022)

99% Better Call Saul: Season 6 (2022)

91% Yellowstone: Season 4 (2021)

97% Severance: Season 1 (2022)

97% Pachinko: Season 1 (2022)

86% Stranger Things: Season 4

And why? It really is a shame that Pachinko will have to face Succession, Squid Game, and the final seasons of Ozark and Better Call Saul. The Apple TV+ series is excellent drama and deserves a win. Such is life. But we’re just talking nominees right now, so congrats to all for a making it this far. What could spoil the party for our picks? Yellowjackets, the final season of This Is Us, and Euphoria’s second season are also strong contenders.

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Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Who will be nominated?

79% Euphoria: Season 2 (2022) Zendaya

85% Ozark: Season 4 (2022) Laura Linney

100% Yellowjackets: Season 1 (2021) Melanie Lynskey

97% Severance: Season 1 (2022) Britt Lower

79% The Gilded Age: Season 1 (2022) Carrie Coon

52% Killing Eve: Season 4 (2022) Jodie Comer

And why? This category has turned over entirely since last year, and with The Crown crew out of the race this year, Zendaya and Linney rise to the lead positions and other deserving talent are able to make it into the nominations. Some industry observers expect Jennifer Aniston (The Morning Show), Mandy Moore (This Is Us), and Kelly Reilly (Yellowstone) to grab nominations. We shall see on Tuesday.

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Lead Actor in a Drama Series

(Photo by Greg Lewis/AMC/Sony Pictures Television)

Who will be nominated?

99% Better Call Saul: Season 6 (2022) Bob Odenkirk

97% Succession: Season 3 (2021) Brian Cox

97% Succession: Season 3 (2021) Jeremy Strong

95% Squid Game: Season 1 (2021) Lee Jung-Jae

85% Ozark: Season 4 (2022) Jason Bateman

97% Severance: Season 1 (2022) Adam Scott

And why? With Better Call Saul wrapping up the series this month, it’s time for star Bob Odenkirk to get the recognition he deserves from Emmy voters. That said, he has heavy competition between the Succession leads of Cox and Strong and Bateman for Ozark’s final season. Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us) and Kevin Costner (Yellowstone) could knock our picks out of the nominations.

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Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

(Photo by Apple TV+)

Who will be nominated?

97% Succession: Season 3 (2021) Sarah Snook

97% Succession: Season 3 (2021) J. Smith-Cameron

85% Ozark: Season 4 (2022) Julia Garner

95% Squid Game: Season 1 (2021) Jung Ho-yeon

99% Better Call Saul: Season 6 (2022) Rhea Seehorn

100% Yellowjackets: Season 1 (2021) Christina Ricci

97% Pachinko: Season 1 (2022) Yuh-Jung Youn

86% Stranger Things: Season 4 Millie Bobby Brown

And why? Here’s another category that we think will see two Succession nominees, an Ozark nominee (and previous winner in this category), and a Better Call Saul nominee who many feel is past due for recognition. The question is: How will they fare against an Academy Award winner (Pachinko’s Yuh-Jung Youn)? Other awards prognosticators have named Patricia Arquette (Severance) and Sydney Sweeney (Euphoria) as probable nominees.

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Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

(Photo by Greg Lewis/AMC/Sony Pictures Television)

Who will be nominated?

97% Succession: Season 3 (2021) Kieran Culkin

97% Succession: Season 3 (2021) Matthew Macfadyen

97% Succession: Season 3 (2021) Nicholas Braun

99% Better Call Saul: Season 6 (2022) Michael Mando

99% Better Call Saul: Season 6 (2022) Giancarlo Esposito

95% Squid Game: Season 1 (2021) Park Hae-soo

67% The Morning Show: Season 2 (2021) Billy Crudup

97% Severance: Season 1 (2022) John Turturro

And why? Other awards watchers aren’t giving Mando much of a chance in this contest, but we’re sticking to our guns and betting that he’ll make the nominee list. He was, after all, the centerpiece of one of the year’s most heartbreaking moments on TV. (We also expect that, when it comes time for voting, teams Succession and Better Call Saul may split votes, leaving room for a winner from one of the other titles in this category.) If anyone might upset our expectations for nominees in this category, it might be Alan Ruck replacing one of his Succession co-stars or David Harbour for his gritty work on Stranger Things this season.

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Outstanding Limited Series

(Photo by Hulu)

Who will be nominated?

89% Dopesick: Season 1 (2021)

90% The White Lotus: Season 1 (2021)

87% Under the Banner of Heaven: Limited Series (2022)

89% Gaslit: Season 1 (2022)

94% Maid: Limited Series (2021)

92% The Staircase: Limited Series (2022)

And why? The limited series category is so strong that the story here is almost not about who will get a nomination, but who should but won’t. Looking at you, Gaslit, Station Eleven, Pam and Tommy, and on and on. For our money, Dopesick and The White Lotus lead the pack, however. If you haven’t watched them yet, do yourself the favor.

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TV Movie

(Photo by HBO Max)

Who will be nominated?

91% The Fallout (2021)

86% The Survivor (2021)

81% Ray Donovan: The Movie (2022)

81% Chip 'n' Dale: Rescue Rangers (2022)

97% The House: Season 1 (2022)

And why? The Survivor and The Fallout are locks for nominations. Other awards prognosticators are picking Zoey’s Extraordinary Christmas and horror film Fresh, starring Sebastian Stan and Daisy Edgar-Jones, but we’re going with the animated Chip ‘n’ Dale: Rescue Rangers and The House (a single film made up of several stories, despite its appearance on a TV page in our database).

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Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Movie

(Photo by Netflix)

Who will be nominated?

94% Maid: Limited Series (2021) Margaret Qualley

90% The Dropout: Limited Series (2022) Amanda Seyfried

83% Scenes From a Marriage: Limited Series (2021) Jessica Chastain

78% Pam & Tommy: Limited Series (2022) Lily James

89% Gaslit: Season 1 (2022) Julia Roberts

64% Inventing Anna: Limited Series (2022) Julia Garner

And why? Whether by looks or mannerisms or strange accents, Seyfried, James, and Garner entirely transformed themselves for their roles in this category, while Qualley, Chastain, and Roberts leaned into the drama of the roles they inhabited. Any in the trio of The First Lady actors — Viola Davis, Michelle Pfeiffer, and Gillian Anderson — could upset that balance in our predictions, though the title itself didn’t perform with critics and ended up with a 42% Tomatometer score.

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Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Movie

(Photo by Antony Platt/Hulu)

Who will be nominated?

89% Dopesick: Season 1 (2021) Michael Keaton

87% Under the Banner of Heaven: Limited Series (2022) Andrew Garfield

83% Scenes From a Marriage: Limited Series (2021) Oscar Isaac

90% The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey: Limited Series (2022) Samuel L. Jackson

And why? Keaton steamrolls over this category with his performance as a rural doctor embroiled in the opioid crisis. Sebastian Stan has the best chance of beating one of our picks into the nominee pool for his portrayal of Mötley Crüe drummer Tommy Lee in Pam & Tommy.

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Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Movie

(Photo by Gene Page/Hulu)

Who will be nominated?

89% Dopesick: Season 1 (2021) Kaitlyn Dever

89% Dopesick: Season 1 (2021) Rosario Dawson

90% The White Lotus: Season 1 (2021) Jennifer Coolidge

90% The White Lotus: Season 1 (2021) Connie Britton

90% The White Lotus: Season 1 (2021) Alexandra Daddario

94% Maid: Limited Series (2021) Andie MacDowell

90% The Dropout: Limited Series (2022) Laurie Metcalf

And why? Coolidge is a favorite in this category, but Dever delivers a performance as strong as her 2019 Unbelievable role, for which she was criminally overlooked by the Emmys. If anyone is going to knock our picks out of this lineup, it’ll be Juliette Binoche for her unexpected performance in The Staircase or Betty Gilpin for her role in Gaslit.

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Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie

(Photo by Mario Perez/HBO)

Who will be nominated?

90% The White Lotus: Season 1 (2021) Murray Bartlett

90% The White Lotus: Season 1 (2021) Steve Zahn

89% Dopesick: Season 1 (2021) Michael Stuhlbarg

89% Dopesick: Season 1 (2021) Peter Sarsgaard

90% The Dropout: Limited Series (2022) Naveen Andrews

78% Pam & Tommy: Limited Series (2022) Seth Rogen

94% Maid: Limited Series (2021) Nick Robinson

And why? Again, the Dopesick and White Lotus actors dominate. Not sure anyone could beat Bartlett’s momentum when it comes time for voting, though Rogen’s Pam & Tommy role comes close. Awards watchers also see Wyatt Russell as a contender for his role in Under the Banner of Heaven, Matthew Goode for The Offer, and William H. Macy for The Dropout. All in all, it’s great company to be in.

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Nominations for the 2022 Emmy Awards will be announced 8:30 a.m. PDT on Tuesday July 12, 2022.  

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