TAGGED AS: Box Office, movies, news
As we’ve said here in this column before, a single weekend rarely tells the whole story despite those trying to sum up an entire narrative in a headline. Films open great and then drop off massively. A musical about P.T. Barnum (The Greatest Showman) starts with just $8.8 million and goes on to gross $174 million. There’s a lot in between that plays out like clockwork, and occasionally those weekend narratives are dead-on, like a broken clock twice a day. This week a different one will take hold, as a question mark morphs into an exclamation point for an original screenplay while a seemingly forgotten original action film from nine years ago gets a sequel and adds to a month that will come close to doubling what it did in 2024.
One stat (and you know we love stats here) that has been going around is how Ryan Coogler’s Sinners last weekend had the best opening for an original piece of work since 2019. Many also said it was the only horror film to receive an A Cinemascore when a little investigation would show that James Cameron’s Aliens also received the grade. The arguments commenced over that, and some may wonder how “original” is fully defined. So we broke it down, because we are now well beyond just a mere opening weekend and looking ahead to Sinners’ final gross, which looks headed well into profit to knock back that early narrative.
First things first. In its second weekend, Sinners fell a mere 4.9% to $45.7 million. Once again, a $48 million opening fell just 4.9% in its second weekend. This took us down the first rabbit hole to see which films that opened over $40 million fell less than 30% in weekend two. Here is that list:
Shrek (+0.3%), Avatar (-1.8%), Sinners (-4.9%), How the Grinch Stole Christmas (-5.4%), Meet the Fockers (-9.5%), Twister (-9.7%), Happy Feet (-10.8%), The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (-18.0%), Jurassic Park (-18.2%), National Treasure: Book of Secrets (-20.3%), Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace (-20.7%), Chicken Little (-21.0%), The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers (-21.2%), Gravity (-22.6%), Aquaman (-23.2%), Casino Royale (-24.6%), Trolls (-24.9%), The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies (-25.2%), Batman (1989) (-25.7%), Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl (-27.0%), The Hangover (-27.1%), Monsters, Inc. (-27.2%), Hitch (-27.3%), The Lego Movie (-27.8%), Wicked: Part One (-27.9%), Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel (-28.0%), The Incredibles (-28.7%), Top Gun: Maverick (-28.9%), Independence Day (-29.8%)
One thing that should be noted is that a number of those films are from the Thanksgiving and Christmas holiday seasons, when drop-offs are not as prominent as during other months and weekends. Another you may have noticed is just how many family and animated films are a part of it. (The original Lion King also likely made that list for its second week of wide release — available numbers are only for a 4-day July 4 weekend.) And if you squint a little closer you will see that the only R-rated film on that list is The Hangover. Welcome to that exclusive club, Sinners.
Circling back to the “original” classification, we did not stop at 2019. We went back a full 10 years to 2016 to look at the highest-grossing films that were not sequels, remakes, book adaptations, or anything based on existing properties. We’re even going to take out films based on real-life figures or events (i.e. Bohemian Rhapsody, Dunkirk, Sound of Freedom, The Greatest Showman, Ford v Ferrari), and here is what the list looks like:
The Secret Life of Pets ($368.3), Zootopia ($341.0), Sing ($270.3), Moana ($248.7), Coco ($209.7), A Quiet Place ($188.0), Get Out ($176.0), Us ($175.0), Knives Out ($165.3), 1917 ($159.2), Elemental ($154.4 million), La La Land ($151.3), Once Upon a Time In Hollywood ($142.5), Central Intelligence ($127.4), Migration ($126.9 million), Sinners ($123.2 to date), Nope ($123.2), Free Guy ($121.6), Girls Trip ($115.1), Bad Moms ($113.2), If ($111.3), Baby Driver ($107.8), Smile ($105.9), The Lost City ($105.3), Passengers ($100.0)
One can argue about 1917 or Once Upon a Time In Hollywood, but let’s focus right now on the fact that Sinners is on that list with $123.2 million after just 10 days. That makes it the highest-grossing R film ever released in April, besting the 1-2 Adrian Lyne punch of Indecent Proposal (1993) and Flashdance (1983). It is also the 10th highest-grossing movie this month after 10 days and the seventh-best second weekend. Nestled in between Furious 7 and Captain America: The Winter Soldier, Sinners is forging a path towards $200 million and may not even need the frequently sad international numbers often returned to films featuring Black casts to turn a profit (a very sad list for another time — Sinners is only at $39 million to date). Only $36 million behind The Winter Soldier’s 10-day numbers and ahead of its second weekend, Sinners could be looking at $230-250 million alone domestically. Next week’s numbers against Thunderbolts will tell the next story of its journey, but this is likely a top five film through Memorial Day weekend.
The Phantom Menace made the small drop list above, while Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith enters the charts again for its 20th anniversary. The re-release earned $25.5 million over the weekend and another $17 million globally. The 25th anniversary release of The Phantom Menace last year opened to only $8.7 million. That’s better than even a couple of the special editions released back in 1997. The Empire Strikes Back opened to $21.9 million and grossed $67.6 million. Return of the Jedi opened to $16.2 million and finished with $45.4 million compared to $35.9 million and $138.2 million for Star Wars.
Back in 2016, Gavin O’Connor’s The Accountant opened to $24.7 million and became a solid hit for Warner Bros. with over $86 million domestic and $155 million globally on a $44 million budget. It has taken nine years to get a sequel made. Domestic rights have now transferred to Amazon/MGM, and instead of relegating it direct to its Prime Video platform like the upcoming Another Simple Favor, they opted to open it in theaters, and voila, a $24.5 million opening for The Accountant 2. The budget has ballooned to $80 million, though, which would have made the first film a theatrical loser recouped by nearly a decade of new fans discovering it. For those keeping track, its budget was $10 million less than Sinners, but it opened to just a little over half of last week’s opening and $20 million behind its second weekend. On the better news front, critics are more positive on the sequel (which is Certified Fresh) than they were on the original (currently Rotten at 53%). It’s also Verified Hot at 93% on the Popcornmeter, which means audiences are digging it. It only needs $67.3 million to enter the top 10 list of R-rated films released in April, but it will need a lot more to cover its budget while still in theaters.
Warner Bros. has the biggest hit of the year to date with A Minecraft Movie, which made $22.7 million in its fourth weekend to bring its total to $379.7 million. The video game adaptation is holding steady and getting back its Wicked vibes, as that musical had a $22.6 million fourth weekend. Minecraft now finds itself $20+ million ahead of that film’s pace while also nearly $100 million behind the pace of Rogue One, which also had a $22 million fourth frame. That gives the film a wide berth of landing anywhere between $442-$490 million domestically. Globally the film is over $816 million with at least another $60+ million coming on the domestic side. A billion will be within its grasp.
Speaking of video game adaptations, Sony’s Until Dawn finished in fifth place this weekend. While there was no more money in it for moviegoers this weekend after the mid-week endurance contest, they still forked over $8 million, a bit below most of this year’s horror efforts. Sinners, The Monkey, and Heart Eyes all got over $30 million in 2025 so far, while Blumhouse’s The Woman in the Yard and Wolf Man are finishing in the low $20 million range. This is another budget-conscious horror film ($15 million) and one co-scripted by former Attack of the Show contributor Blair Butler.
The animated tale of Jesus, The King of Kings, has entered its post-Easter cooldown phase, dropping over 77% down to $4.2 million. It has still made a very solid $54.7 million to fit nicely with the faith-based releases we have seen over the years in March and April. Dropping to $3.6 million in its third weekend is The Amateur. The $60 million production released by 20th Century Studios has made $33.7 million domestic and over $80 million globally — not looking like a theatrical success.
Then there is Alex Garland and Ray Mendoza’s Warfare in eighth place with $2.6 million. The $20 million real-time battle rescue film has made $21.8 million in 17 days. A24 also expanded the family fantasy The Legend of Ochi into 1,153 theaters; it made enough to break the top 10 with $1.44 million. Christopher Landon’s Drop again lived up to its name, falling over 74% down to $950,000 in its third weekend. The $11 million production has still grossed over $23 million globally with $15 million of that in North America.
The summer season is here and Marvel is hoping to get the ball rolling with Thunderbolts. Captain America: Brave New World did not bring in the numbers either critically or at the box office, so they are hoping this course correction will be in their favor. Expect it to lead the way next week while many will be eyeing those healthy Sinners numbers.
Erik Childress can be heard each week evaluating box office on Business First AM with Angela Miles and his Movie Madness Podcast. [box office figures via Box Office Mojo]
Thumbnail image by ©Warner Bros.
