Box Office Guru Preview: Rambo Leads Army of New Films Into Battle

Untraceable, Meet the Spartans, How She Move also opening this weekend

by | January 24, 2008 | Comments

The resurrection of yesterday’s movie heroes continues with Sylvester Stallone‘s new film Rambo which finds the vet in Southeast Asia where he is pulled into another battle with baddies. The R-rated film from Lionsgate follows the actor’s Rocky Balboa which defied the odds last winter to become both a critical and commercial success. Stallone directed both films. Rambo also comes after Bruce Willis saw a lucrative reboot of the Die Hard franchise last summer, and arrives before Harrison Ford‘s much-anticipated return as Indiana Jones this May.

John Rambo may not be as loved by fans as those other characters which means it may gross the least amount of dough at the domestic box office. The new Rambo will surely attract older males with the nostalgia factor, but younger men are also being targeted by using today’s rock music in the television spots and print ads with images of a cult-like Sly. The image could easily be spray-painted on a wall next to the heads of Andre the Giant and Che Guevara. Rambo is getting the widest release of any new film on Friday and with football taking the weekend off, male audiences will be more available. Most of the competition will come from Cloverfield‘s second frame, but those wanting intense violence and a ton of bullets flying around will find no better choice. Attacking 2,751 theaters, Rambo could debut to about $18M this weekend.


Good ol’ Sly is back

Diane Lane goes solo anchoring the crime thriller Untraceable which finds the Oscar-nominated actress playing a federal agent on the trail of a psychopath that uses the internet to kill his victims. The R-rated film will cater to adult audiences and skew more towards women. Female-led detective thrillers usually struggle at the box office, however Untraceable will benefit from one the best trailers this winter for a non-monster movie. Sony’s marketing efforts have been solid with Lane’s name and the intriguing plot being the main selling points used to lure in ticket buyers. The rating may keep out younger net-savvy teens that might have interest plus an abundance of films will keep things competitive. The sophomore weekend of 27 Dresses will surely draw away some of Untraceable‘s audience, especially those who would rather see something lighter and not so grim. Landing in 2,368 theaters, Untraceable might take away roughly $10M this weekend.


Diane Lane and that Hanks kid in Untraceable

Fox dishes out yet another dose of spoof comedy with Meet the Spartans skewering all sorts of hit films plus Britney and non-Britney pop culture events of the past year. The PG-13 entry is going after the same teen and young adult audience that came out in solid numbers for Epic Movie, which bowed at number one this weekend last year with $18.6M, and the previous year’s Date Movie which debuted to a similar $19.1M. However, the spoof genre showed signs of aging last October when the studio suffered a lowly $5.6M opening for the sports comedy The Comebacks. The target audience is getting a little sick of these antics so the opening for Spartans should be weaker than Epic‘s but better than Comebacks‘. Hefty competition, especially from Cloverfield, will also be a major hurdle to overcome this weekend. Opening in 2,603 locations, Meet the Spartans may launch with about $9M.


Meet the Spartans

Step dancing is back again, this time in female form, with How She Move which Paramount Vantage is releasing for Viacom sibling MTV Films. The PG-13 pic revolves around a talented young woman’s quest to win a dance competition and honor her dead sister’s memory in the process. Move features mostly newcomers and will target teens and urban youth. The same audience powered January hits like You Got Served and Stomp the Yard to number one openings of $16.1M and $21.8M, respectively. But Move lacks the marketing muscle that Sony has a patent on for these types of films. Success with the core crowd should result, but crossover business with other groups will be tough. Plus teens have Cloverfield and Meet the Spartans competing for their attention too so there will be blood. Stepping into about 1,500 sites, How She Move could bow to around $6M.


How She Move

After scoring seven Academy Award nominations, the most for any big studio title, Michael Clayton goes back out into wide release on Friday. Warner Bros. is hoping to catch audiences who maybe didn’t catch it the first time but are now sold on the George Clooney drama because of all the kudos attention. Clayton, which has grossed $39.4M to date, goes back out into 1,102 theaters. A year ago this weekend, the studio gave similar treatment to The Departed which expanded to 1,453 locations for a $3.4M gross in its 17th frame. This time the studio is using the ads to also inform fans of the legal thriller’s February 19 DVD release date so some may just wait a few weeks to catch the acclaimed pic at home. Michael Clayton may find itself with roughly $3M this weekend.


Michael Clayton gets a second run

Last weekend, the beastly disaster flick Cloverfield exploded with a record opening of $46.1M over the four-day holiday frame. A steep drop is likely on the sophomore frame since frenzied upfront demand led to most fans catching the thriller already. Plus Rambo and some of the other new titles will pull audiences away in different directions. A 55% three-day tumble would leave Paramount with about $18M and a ten-day cume of $69M.

Chick flick 27 Dresses is not worried about Stallone, however Diane Lane and the Spartans could provide some competition this weekend for the Katherine Heigl laugher. Audiences have been having a good time with the Fox release so a 40% drop could occur. That would give 27 Dresses roughly $13.5M over three days and a total of $44M after ten days.

Batman franchise alums Jack Nicholson and Morgan Freeman enjoyed a terrific hold for their pic The Bucket List last weekend which is playing to an older and more patient crowd. A 30% fall would put the Warner Bros. film at around $10.5M pushing the sum to $58M.

LAST YEAR: Spoof comedy led the way with Fox’s Epic Movie which bowed on top to the tune of $18.6M on its way to $39.7M. Opening right behind in second with almost identical per-theater average was the Universal drama Smokin’ Aces with $14.6M from 600 fewer theaters. A $35.7M final gross resulted. Former chart-topper Night at the Museum followed in third with $9.6M while the dance drama Stomp the Yard placed fourth with $7.7M. A hair behind in fifth with a $7.7M debut was Sony’s Jennifer Garner drama Catch and Release which found its way to just $15.3M.

Author: Gitesh Pandya, www.BoxOfficeGuru.com

Tag Cloud

20th Century Fox video on demand theme song book natural history The Arrangement GIFs Lifetime Christmas movies Funimation Thanksgiving Amazon Prime Video DC streaming service AMC Grammys Oscars Travel Channel best Shondaland Mystery streaming Nominations Nat Geo Tarantino cancelled television Pixar TV Land YouTube Red Marvel OneApp PBS VOD Sundance Summer spy thriller toy story FXX FX on Hulu Heroines Pop Tubi ABC Family toronto TIFF Fall TV HBO Max American Society of Cinematographers Awards Tour facebook Ellie Kemper Universal sports discovery Apple science fiction LGBTQ CW Seed Ovation 2017 stop motion Chilling Adventures of Sabrina APB mission: impossible FOX Marathons Academy Awards Paramount scary movies indie Music 21st Century Fox Elton John football tv talk Amazon Studios Black History Month TV news E3 Trivia 71st Emmy Awards Starz zombie fast and furious christmas movies hollywood cartoon Television Academy 4/20 all-time Video Games reviews Endgame talk show war satire adaptation Paramount Network Holiday Comic Book Turner Classic Movies BAFTA Spectrum Originals USA Watching Series vampires NBC social media Emmys south america Rocketman cooking DGA binge Disney+ Disney Plus BBC Pop TV award winner Year in Review Reality Competition police drama RT21 doctor who Women's History Month psychological thriller hist classics directors blockbuster dramedy Election SDCC Hallmark Captain marvel franchise crossover Action what to watch child's play worst Britbox disaster Writers Guild of America emmy awards Polls and Games Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt Comedy Central ESPN Lionsgate Marvel Television Cannes Tumblr television Fantasy indiana jones Star Wars Cartoon Network Nickelodeon Reality richard e. Grant Pride Month Cosplay Netflix Christmas movies spanish language TCA Winter 2020 NYCC miniseries Comics on TV Ghostbusters VH1 serial killer TCA 2017 superhero halloween Vudu Showtime independent Set visit Kids & Family Epix finale X-Men sag awards A24 scorecard zombies Rocky comedies sitcom green book Hear Us Out historical drama venice Mindy Kaling Sci-Fi Acorn TV twilight Countdown Mary Poppins Returns boxoffice Calendar anthology spain Fox Searchlight Sundance TV DC Comics joker dragons cults justice league die hard Animation First Look cancelled TV series History a nightmare on elm street rotten supernatural hispanic ghosts Creative Arts Emmys Masterpiece festivals TCA LGBT Star Trek name the review Teen canceled Spring TV game show Freeform Winners YA Comedy Emmy Nominations Quiz romance romantic comedy crime drama Box Office spinoff BET Awards movie Black Mirror Mary Tyler Moore The Witch adventure GoT TBS Warner Bros. foreign children's TV Avengers nfl free movies BBC One cancelled sequels A&E Musical DirecTV VICE australia Hallmark Christmas movies elevated horror President technology E! mockumentary werewolf robots Toys YouTube Disney Plus Opinion obituary travel RT History Shudder cops quibi Tomatazos Disney reboot cats Holidays Peacock WarnerMedia HBO screen actors guild SXSW Arrowverse game of thrones revenge Marvel Studios BBC America Sony Pictures unscripted Biopics Syfy FX batman spanish aliens parents 2019 Winter TV Pet Sematary IFC latino renewed TV shows Logo 2015 2018 First Reviews ABC 2020 concert stoner WGN Premiere Dates laika 007 Song of Ice and Fire DC Universe chucky Rom-Com psycho Baby Yoda animated Schedule See It Skip It dceu movies asian-american crime thriller politics TV renewals Television Critics Association Photos TCM Extras nbcuniversal Disney Channel Film Festival golden globes space dark Sneak Peek slashers jamie lee curtis cancelled TV shows blaxploitation Chernobyl mutant Podcast Rock MCU comics Trailer composers period drama Infographic biography YouTube Premium CBS Hulu Dark Horse Comics Walt Disney Pictures halloween tv PlayStation USA Network worst movies Pirates Lucasfilm San Diego Comic-Con based on movie dc italian Certified Fresh Apple TV+ series Spike Interview TCA Awards Brie Larson MSNBC Character Guide TNT Valentine's Day Superheroe OWN stand-up comedy Food Network universal monsters TruTV 45 docudrama critics The Academy Superheroes crime New York Comic Con transformers zero dark thirty kids TLC Martial Arts witnail National Geographic comiccon The CW sequel documentaries spider-man Disney streaming service IFC Films Family El Rey remakes diversity Mudbound Bravo MTV japanese The Walking Dead nature Turner Amazon documentary teaser anime Classic Film Lifetime Netflix rotten movies we love dogs Best and Worst CBS All Access screenings french true crime BET Film Trophy Talk comic Horror ratings Anna Paquin Western singing competition SundanceTV archives The Purge video Columbia Pictures PaleyFest Apple TV Plus ITV CMT Red Carpet 2016 harry potter festival Mary poppins films political drama 72 Emmy Awards cinemax breaking bad Discovery Channel canceled TV shows criterion Sundance Now Crackle 24 frames Musicals Stephen King HBO Go Super Bowl GLAAD Crunchyroll Country cars Binge Guide casting thriller Awards Adult Swim Fox News Amazon Prime medical drama Christmas CNN strong female leads versus Esquire Drama