Box Office Guru Preview: Proposal and Year One Bring More Laughs

Both films attempting to unseat The Hangover, Up.

by | June 18, 2009 | Comments

Five of the top six films are comedies right now but Hollywood believes that’s not enough so two new laughers open on Friday to give moviegoers even more options. Sandra Bullock headlines the phony engagement pic The Proposal while Jack Black and Michael Cera star in the lowbrow flick Year One targeting an audience that is younger and more male. The overall marketplace will need to work hard to avoid posting its fourth consecutive down weekend versus last year.

Sandra Bullock returns to her most profitable genre with the new romantic comedy The Proposal hoping to score her first number one hit in over ten years. The PG-13 pic finds the actress playing a Canadian-born book editor who forces her male assistant (Ryan Reynolds) to marry her in order to dodge deportation. Few in Hollywood would think to pair Miss Congeniality with Van Wilder, but the Buena Vista release does just that and will appeal to a core audience of adult women due to the main star and the subject matter. Despite the misleading title, the film should attract decent male business and score points with the date crowd.

Bullock and fellow A-lister Two Weeks Notice with Hugh Grant, which bowed to $14.3M in December 2002 on its way to $93.4M. If Proposal breaks $20M this weekend, her publicists will be touting a new career high. What they’ll leave out is that she’s been absent from the number one spot this entire decade last reaching the top in March 1999 with Forces of Nature co-starring Ben Affleck.

Father’s Day weekend isn’t usually a time when chick flicks open, but the timing is actually quite right for The Proposal. Adult women have had little offered to them this summer and it’s been a good seven weeks since the last major romantic comedy Ghosts of Girlfriends Past opened. Direct competition will be light, but The Hangover will still be a factor for adults while Year One should take away some teens looking for a laugh. Opening in 3,056 locations, The Proposal could debut with about $22M.


Ryan Reynolds and Sandra Bullock in The Proposal

Teen boys not interested in fake engagement hijinks will get to line up for the comedy Year One starring Jack Black and Michael Cera. The PG-13 pic about two slacker hunter-gatherers that venture out of their village to explore the ancient world is aimed squarely at teenagers looking to switch their brains off after a long school year and sit and laugh at mindless fun. Both leads carry some starpower with this crowd and teen girls may also take some interest.

The recent flood of comedies of all types will provide substantial competition. Fearing being crushed by Optimus Prime, studios avoided programming any big action tentpoles in June opting instead for an endless string of laughers. Opening two star-driven comedies on the same day is never a good idea, but Sony is hoping that there is room for Year One to service its audience while Ms. Bullock taps into her crowd. But that puts a limit on the grossing potential since neither has must-see buzz. Young males are pretty reliable at this time of year so those not saving their cash for Transformers on Imax could give the pre-historic comedy a try. Year One makes its way into over 2,900 theaters on Friday and might collect about $20M this weekend.


Jack Black and Michael Cera in Year One

Fox hopes to get early buzz going for its 3D toon Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs with sneak previews this Sunday for Father’s Day in 330 theaters nationwide. The threequel opens on Wednesday, July 1, ahead of the long Independence Day holiday frame and will steal away most of Up‘s 3D screens.

Two-week leader The Hangover will try to score that rare three-peat, but it won’t be easy with two new competing star-driven comedies entering the scene. The men-behaving-badly pic has been showing remarkable strength with its 27% dip in the sophomore frame. Direct competition is much tougher this weekend so sales may fall by 30% to about $23M. That would give The Hangover a sensational $148M in only 17 days for Warner Bros.

Up has been neck and neck over the last two frames and this weekend should continue that trend. The Pixar smash could crack the $200M mark on Thursday in its 21st day of release becoming the animation company’s eighth consecutive blockbuster to join the double-century club. New releases should not steal away too much thunder from the flying house adventure so a 30% decline would give Up around $21.5M boosting the cume to an eye-popping $223M.

Denzel Washington saw a decent but not spectacular bow for his hostage thriller The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 last weekend. Adult audiences are coming out, but are not exactly rushing with excitement. Look for a 45% drop this weekend giving the Sony release roughly $13M for a ten-day tally of $44M.

LAST YEAR: Proving that a remake of an older TV series anchored by a popular funnyman can work if done right, Steve Carell hit the top spot with Get Smart which debuted with $38.7M, or more than twice the opening of Will Ferrell‘s Land of the Lost this month. Warner Bros. found its way to a solid $130.3M with Smart. Tumbling 60% in its second weekend was Universal’s comic actioner The Incredible Hulk which grossed $22.1M which was an improvement on 2003’s Hulk which collapsed by 70% to $18.8M in its sophomore session. Kung Fu Panda held up well in third with $21.9M for Paramount and DreamWorks. Opening in fourth to disappointing results was eventual Razzie champ The Love Guru with $13.9M on its way to just $32.2M for Paramount. Fox rounded out the top five with the thriller The Happening which lost two-thirds of its opening weekend audience grossing $10.5M.

Author: Gitesh Pandya, www.BoxOfficeGuru.com

Tag Cloud

Holiday Ellie Kemper Crackle FOX Arrowverse Shudder OneApp TCA Awards Sony Pictures cats Fox News LGBT Podcast Best and Worst superhero Paramount miniseries SXSW Mudbound canceled TV shows adaptation DC streaming service Mindy Kaling blockbuster Pirates NBC History batman scary movies game of thrones hollywood Emmy Nominations Baby Yoda El Rey 2019 First Reviews comedies science fiction Grammys chucky Sneak Peek Ghostbusters 24 frames Rom-Com Western Funimation vampires GLAAD name the review Marathons Academy Awards south america Writers Guild of America 45 Hallmark The Walking Dead worst biography indie nature IFC Pop TV crime thriller crime Chernobyl E3 See It Skip It First Look GoT Thanksgiving screenings comiccon DC Universe travel RT History RT21 spinoff Marvel Television blaxploitation Kids & Family Photos Hear Us Out spanish language cinemax TIFF 2016 Action strong female leads Reality Competition cars anime animated E! FX HBO CBS All Access Comics on TV comic Tarantino laika Cosplay PBS twilight Horror 71st Emmy Awards Disney+ Disney Plus werewolf romantic comedy television Teen concert Anna Paquin period drama satire Fall TV finale christmas movies Walt Disney Pictures HBO Max Music Apple TV+ ABC Family Netflix fast and furious harry potter adventure psychological thriller 007 Hulu Family parents children's TV TCA YouTube Premium movies GIFs zombie FXX DC Comics Travel Channel Stephen King Certified Fresh golden globes elevated horror nbcuniversal Martial Arts ESPN The Purge Turner Classic Movies SDCC Heroines APB crossover Awards Tour TCA Winter 2020 Comedy Black Mirror historical drama diversity Paramount Network Sundance documentary CBS BBC all-time VOD 72 Emmy Awards MTV WarnerMedia stand-up comedy Britbox revenge thriller spy thriller Reality video on demand rotten mutant Superheroe Nominations comics mission: impossible stop motion classics screen actors guild Syfy franchise dragons Food Network ABC cancelled TV shows Dark Horse Comics Amazon Prime 4/20 BET Awards 21st Century Fox Mary poppins TNT Set visit aliens hist Sundance Now Winners Toys Epix quibi BAFTA Vudu Lucasfilm Countdown Television Critics Association richard e. Grant TV Land Tomatazos 20th Century Fox Emmys A24 Star Wars sitcom doctor who PaleyFest emmy awards Drama TLC Chilling Adventures of Sabrina PlayStation Film disaster Nickelodeon social media National Geographic hispanic Women's History Month Interview independent TV renewals Country Disney binge Super Bowl President Extras best space DirecTV Pride Month Avengers Disney streaming service Endgame casting theme song Video Games Valentine's Day Marvel Studios Rock DGA IFC Films serial killer composers TV facebook Warner Bros. dark BET Binge Guide streaming sports AMC Adult Swim YA Comic Book WGN stoner anthology foreign Box Office a nightmare on elm street Song of Ice and Fire Starz natural history teaser die hard Musical war 2017 medical drama Sundance TV rotten movies we love Star Trek Apple TV Plus Musicals Tubi Fantasy Calendar cops Mary Poppins Returns Cannes cults Awards Trivia Rocky Sci-Fi dceu Infographic spain universal monsters cancelled dc Disney Plus cooking spider-man zombies dogs American Society of Cinematographers TruTV criterion Premiere Dates cartoon Amazon Studios 2018 news mockumentary USA Network The Witch obituary singing competition Hallmark Christmas movies Captain marvel crime drama docudrama HBO Go TCA 2017 asian-american justice league cancelled TV series Mary Tyler Moore Year in Review award winner Apple Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt Netflix Christmas movies films book directors tv talk Holidays politics NYCC Animation Pixar Classic Film New York Comic Con Logo MSNBC TBS Amazon Esquire Discovery Channel Winter TV Disney Channel Mystery witnail dramedy The CW unscripted SundanceTV TCM free movies joker CNN Lifetime Red Carpet Television Academy LGBTQ A&E zero dark thirty MCU Freeform VH1 2015 robots Shondaland San Diego Comic-Con toy story Peacock Turner Spectrum Originals Ovation Superheroes USA boxoffice Christmas Spring TV Opinion versus Trophy Talk Spike technology Quiz true crime Black History Month critics Rocketman Masterpiece Cartoon Network Oscars Pet Sematary political drama canceled Crunchyroll child's play slashers documentaries sag awards Marvel Nat Geo cancelled television renewed TV shows romance Lionsgate Election Elton John latino Character Guide CW Seed Universal Trailer Summer Watching Series reboot Acorn TV series ghosts green book Creative Arts Emmys FX on Hulu based on movie Bravo The Arrangement psycho halloween discovery talk show Columbia Pictures indiana jones movie YouTube Polls and Games Lifetime Christmas movies OWN Biopics X-Men Tumblr video transformers police drama Pop Schedule breaking bad VICE festivals game show Showtime Amazon Prime Video kids BBC One Brie Larson Comedy Central BBC America YouTube Red reviews CMT Film Festival supernatural ITV ratings what to watch sequel 2020 jamie lee curtis