Box Office Guru

Box Office Guru Wrapup: HSM3 Soars to Dazzling $42M Opening

Jigsaw defeated by young singing whippersnappers.

by | October 26, 2008 | Comments

Recession be damned! Movie fans went on a spending spree at North American
multiplexes as a pair of new sequels pumped over $72M into cash registers
driving the overall marketplace to the biggest October weekend in box office
history. Disney’s High School Musical 3: Senior Year
delivered a sensational opening in first place and was followed in second by a
solid debut for the horror staple Saw V
which proved once again to be the genre’s most dependable franchise. Both hits
tapped into built-in audiences thanks to their strong brands, even though the
crowds could not have been more different. Ticket sales were up by a stunning
40% or more when compared to the corresponding frames from the past few years
proving that the right product will continue to draw large audiences into movie

Kids and parents lined up in massive numbers to enjoy the singing and dancing
extravaganza High School Musical 3 which launched with dazzling results
grossing an estimated $42M in its first weekend of release. Averaging a
fantastic $11,598 from 3,623 locations, the G-rated tale of squeaky clean
Albuquerque teens, who all just happen to carry a tune really well, delivered
the third largest October bow ever trailing just Scary Movie 3 ($48.1M in
2003) and Shark Tale ($47.6M in 2004) and the highest ever for a musical
beating the $27.8M of July’s Mamma Mia! The studio developed the brand on
the Disney Channel with two made-for-television movies that became pop culture
behemoths and took a leap with the third installment by having it graduate to
the big screen where Mouse House execs hoped the fans would follow it to. And
follow they did.


The fan base turned out in droves on Friday with a stellar $16.9M. Sales fell by
9% to $15.3M on Saturday indicating how intense demand was to see HSM3 on
the first day. Online ticketing sites reported brisk advance sales for weeks.
Disney is estimating a Sunday drop of 36% to $9.8M. With a reported budget of
only $13M, the Wildcats tale is well on its way to becoming a cash cow
especially when international box office and home video sales are bundled in.
The franchise is made for repeat viewing which may not happen much at the box
office given ticket prices for each sitting, but should surely be a factor on
DVD where young fans can watch Zac Efron and crew over and over again. Musicals
typically sell well overseas and even an all-American one like Senior Year
already has a global fan base waiting to drop some Euros and Yen. Over the
weekend, international ticket buyers in 22 markets spent an estimated $40M
giving Musical a global debut of $82M with much more to go.

For the first time since the last presidential election season, a Saw
film did not open at number one on the weekend before Halloween. Instead, the
latest chapter in the wildly successful franchise Saw V
settled for the runnerup spot but proved that the series is still alive and well
the fifth time around with an estimated $30.5M in ticket sales this weekend.
Averaging a brutal $9,965 from 3,060 sites, the R-rated torturefest dipped only
a scant amount from debuts of its recent predecessors. The last four Saw films
have bowed in the $30-34M range and are all among the top ten October openings
of all-time. The weekend gross for part five was extremely frontloaded with
Friday bowing to a gruesome $14.2M, Saturday tumbling a troubling 30% to $9.9M,
and Sunday being estimated to fall 35% to $6.4M. The five Saw films have
now grossed a combined $316.2M domestically with the franchise likely to
approach $350M by the time the new installment leaves theaters, or $70M per pic
before overseas and worldwide video revenues are added to the mix.


Led by the HSM and Saw sequels, ticket sales for the Top 20 soared
to an estimated $129M. If estimates hold, it will top the $125.2M from the exact
same frame in 2003 when Scary Movie 3 broke the all-time October opening record
and led the overall marketplace to the strongest weekend ever for the month.
Admissions were still higher five years ago though, with about 21 million stubs
sold for the Top 20 then compared to approximately 18 million this weekend.

Mark Wahlberg’s video game flick Max Payne dropped from first to third
this weekend bringing in an estimated $7.6M. That represented a decline of 57%
which was normal for this type of film. With $29.7M in the bank after ten days,
the $35M Fox release looks to finish its domestic run with around $45M.

Despite the powerful launch of the studio’s HSM3, Disney still fared very
well with the hit Beverly Hills Chihuahua
which slipped 40% to an estimated $6.9M. Sitting in fourth place in its fourth
session, the G-rated family comedy upped its cume to a robust $78.1M.

Opening with weak results in fifth place was the police corruption drama Pride and Glory
which bowed to an estimated $6.3M from 2,585 sites. Averaging a lackluster
$2,447 per venue, the Edward Norton and Colin Farrell
actioner was panned by critics and sat on the shelf for some time before Warner
Bros. put the film out.


A pair of sophomores followed. Fox Searchlight’s Queen Latifah-Dakota Fanning
pic The Secret Life of Bees
dropped a moderate 44% to an estimated $5.9M and upped its ten-day tally to
$19.2M. The presidential flick W.
suffered a larger decline dropping 49% to an estimated $5.3M for Lionsgate
putting the sum at $18.8M. Final grosses should reach roughly $34M and $30M,

The Paramount hit Eagle Eye slipped only 27% to an estimated $5.1M and
raised its total to $88M. Leonardo DiCaprio and Russell Crowe saw their
political thriller Body of Lies
gross an estimated $4.1M, off 40%, for a $30.9M cume. Rounding out the top ten
was the horror title Quarantine which got butchered by Saw V‘s
arrival collecting an estimated $2.6M, down 58%, for $28.8M to date.

Generating lots of heat in limited release was Universal’s Angelina Jolie
starrer Changeling
which bowed in only 15 theaters but grossed an estimated $502,000 for a
scorching $33,467 average. Directed by Clint Eastwood, the R-rated true tale of
a woman whose son disappears in 1920s California earned mixed reviews from
critics. The film’s big challenge will come this Friday when it expands
nationwide into over 1,800 theaters.

The top ten films grossed an estimated $116.4M which was up a sturdy 43% from
last year when Saw IV opened in the top spot with $31.8M; and up 40% from
2006 when Saw III debuted at number one with $33.6M.