We all know how tough it is to predict the Academy Awards, whether you’re in your local Oscar pool for the cash prize or just for plain old bragging rights. So the editors of Rotten Tomatoes have put their heads together to weigh all the factors, from Tomatometer ratings to award season wins to that intangible quality, Oscar buzz, to provide you with our collective educated guesses of who’ll take home the hardware this Sunday night.
[Download the Rotten Tomatoes Oscar Ballot here for the full list of Academy Award nominees, to which we’ve added each film’s Tomatometer to help you make your picks.] Visit Rotten Tomatoes on Sunday, February 22, for an up-to-the-minute list of winners as they are announced and follow us on Twitter as we cover the show live, direct from the Oscars!
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It’s almost certain that this year’s Best Picture will go to Danny Boyle’s little Slumdog that could. With incredible buzz behind it, the Fox Searchlight sleeper hit has already grossed ten times its $15 million budget in worldwide sales and nabbed more awards than any other Best Picture nominee, including a Golden Globe. After all, everyone likes a feel good flick that makes money, and none of Slumdog‘s competitors have done both. The winds of popular opinion cry Slumdog Millionaire — and so do we. |
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Oscar seldom splits its Best Picture and Best Director awards, so if Slumdog is going to take it (as it surely will), so will Danny Boyle. A director who’s always been celebrated — if not awarded — for his vision, Boyle’s finally made a film with appeal broad enough to get the Academy’s attention. We’re betting on Slumdog Millionaire‘s momentum to carry Boyle all the way up to the podium come Sunday night. |
Sean Penn  Milk  93% |
The Best Actor race is neck and neck between Milk star Penn, who has won once before for Mystic River and been nominated an additional three times, and The Wrestler‘s Mickey Rourke, whose deeply felt performance (and real life comeback story) propelled him towards his first Oscar nomination this year. But is the Academy ready to give a statuette to Rourke, whose media presence in recent weeks has focused more on who he’s seen in public with and his Chihuahua dependency than on his startling performance? We think not. The Oscar goes to Penn’s lived-in embodiment of slain San Francisco crusader Harvey Milk, for the win. |
Kate Winslet  The Reader 60% |
With Meryl Streep’s wolf-in-nun’s-clothing turn in Doubt nipping at her heels, Kate Winslet is poised to grab the Oscar for Best Actress; after all, she didn’t win the BAFTA, Golden Globe, and SAG awards for nothing. Besides, fair is fair, and La Streep has already won two Oscars before; Winslet has gone to the Big Show five times before and come home empty-handed. There’s also the Revolutionary Road factor to consider; while her leading role in husband Sam Mendes’ suburban drama went un-nominated, Winslet’s Reader turn was arguably more suited to the Supporting Actress category; as such, voters may reward Winslet for her double-duty, keeping her out of danger of becoming the Susan Lucci of the Academy Awards. |
Heath Ledger  The Dark Knight 94% |
Duh. A no-brainer. |
Penelope Cruz  Vicky Cristina Barcelona 82% |
Despite Viola Davis’ powerful 11-minute performance in Doubt, her co-star Amy Adams, also nominated for her role in the same film, may cancel it out. That’s just as well, as Penelope Cruz has been riding atop a resurgence of buzz of late for her role in Vicky Cristina Barcelona — one that brings a vital energy to Woody Allen’s romantic drama. Add to that Allen’s knack for directing Oscar-nominated performances, and the fact that Cruz lost the Best Actress race in 2007 to Helen Mirren, and we might see the Spanish actress win big this year. |
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That Dustin Lance Black’s screenplay for Milk is based on true events — the triumph and tragic assassination of openly gay San Francisco politician Harvey Milk — will nudge it into the Academy’s favor; it deftly plots the sentiments and struggles of an entire underclass while combining elements that voters like: history, martyrdom, and the art of the biographical picture. While Wall-E has shown extraordinary genre-expanding promise (besides Foreign Picture nominee Waltz with Bashir, it’s the only animated film to earn nominations in “normal” categories) the Pixar tale is mostly dialogue-free — plus, unlike Black, Andrew Stanton and Co. haven’t appeared in any half-nude Oscar season photo spreads, the likes of which have added some much-needed va va voom to the Screenplay category. |
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Again, we point to the power of momentum. With last-minute accusations of child-exploitation blowing in the wind (Boyle and his cast have assured the world that their child stars will be compensated with paid-for educations — nice try, Harvey) Slumdog is the one to beat in almost every category it’s up for. History shows that Best Screenplay honors line up consistently with Best Picture wins, so Simon Beaufoy can start getting the gold polish out now. |
Next: RT predicts the winners for Best Animated Film, Best Foreign Film, and more
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The Oscar for Cinematography tends to go to the “pretty” picture — it is, after all, rewarding the film with the best photography. To many critics, prettiness was Benjamin Button‘s strength, so don’t be surprised if the Academy throws David Fincher’s film this bone in lieu of other Oscars. |
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As a rule of thumb, it’s not a bad idea to guess that the Oscar for Art Direction goes to the movie that transported its audience to the world farthest away from their own reality. This year, that meant going back the farthest in time, to an era ruled by corsets and horse-drawn carriages (as opposed to 1920s, 1950s, and 1960s America, and Gotham City). |
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Again, credit those corsets. (And star Keira Knightley — she couldn’t save the biopic from its rotten Tomatometer, but the girl knows how to wear a hoop dress.) |
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Because nobody is complaining about Kung Fu Panda or Bolt not getting a Best Picture nomination. |
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After earning top honors this season as a Best Animated, Best Foreign, and Best Documentary film at various ceremonies, the genre-defying Waltz with Bashir isn’t just the most decorated nominee in its category, it’s the most well-known. And sometimes that’s all that matters. |
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Sure, Slumdog Millionaire‘s high energy score has earned composer A.R. Rahman kudos from the BAFTAs, the Golden Globes, and critics groups. But Milk‘s score boasts the imprint of the incomparable Danny Elfman — former front man for Oingo Boingo, frequent Tim Burton collaborator, and previous Oscar nominee (for his work on Big Fish, Men in Black, and Good Will Hunting — the latter two in the same year). In contrast to his bombastic and macabre previous work, Elfman lent a more subtle touch to Milk, matching the quiet dignity of Gus Van Sant’s biopic with period-specific touches. Oscar voters could do worse than to reward the master for (successfully) stepping out of his comfort zone. |
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Normally, we’d predict that votes would split between multiple songs nominated from the same film. But in this case, Slumdog‘s catchy “Jai Ho” has seemed to break out as the film’s signature tune. Thanks to the film’s closing sequence — a Bollywood dance number in a train station, set to the sounds of, yep, “Jai Ho” — it’s become THE Slumdog Millionaire signature song, danced to by Ellen Degeneres on her talk show and taught on YouTube. Plus, the Pussycat Dolls have covered it. There, we said it. |
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Because, as The Onion A.V. Club wisely put it, “It’s a documentary, and you’ve heard of it.” And it’s the only Oscar nominee with a perfect 100 percent Tomatometer. |
Next: All the rest, for the hardcore Oscar pool players
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A movie so dependent on flashbacks and multiple storylines can’t help but call attention to its edits, and will likely be in the forefront of voters’ minds, whether they’re conscious of it or not. |
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The sound categories are two of the hardest to keep straight; what’s the difference between Sound Editing and Sound Mixing? But consider the fact that the majority of Wall-E is told without dialogue, and its main character can only speak a few words at best. Pixar’s Ben Burtt has to win, for his sheer genius alone. |
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Pixar’s Wall-E employs such a brilliant, man-made soundscape, we have to give it both wins. You can hear everything that happens in Wall-E’s world, simultaneously. You can hear the cockroach walk, for goodness sake! |
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Sure, both Iron Man and The Dark Knight possess top-notch action sequences and effects. But can either match the magic of convincing audiences that Cate Blanchett is, in fact, a 20-year-old ballerina and that Brad Pitt is actually aging backwards, from wizened little man-baby past his actual age of 45, all the way to the youthful beauty of his Thelma and Louise days? David Fincher’s film actually pushes the boundaries of what digital effects are, for which it’s likely to win the Academy’s recognition. |
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While Heath Ledger’s caked-on Joker face is indeed terrifying, and Cate Blanchett is nearly unrecognizable as a convalescent senior citizen, we’ve got to give this one to Hellboy II — a movie whose protagonist is under prosthetics and make-up for its entire duration. Heck, we don’t even know what Ron Perlman looks like in real life! (Just kidding, we do. He’s just a little less scary under horns and red make-up.) |
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Thanks to its sensitive subject matter (a former Khmer Rouge photographer recounts his experiences at a prison where nearly 17,000 people died), Nhem En is a good bet. Director Stephen Okazaki is the only previously-nominated filmmaker, and won once before in 1990. |
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Not only is Presto a Pixar product (it played in theaters with Wall-E), it’s one of Pixar’s best shorts. |
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Another rule of thumb when it comes to the Oscars is, always bet on the Holocaust flick. Toyland has also won numerous awards on the festival circuit, placing it among the best of the category. |
And that’s it! Download your Oscar ballot here and play along Sunday evening, when the 81st Annual Academy Awards are telecast live at 5pm PST/8pm EST. Follow RT on Twitter for behind-the-scenes reports from backstage at the Oscars!
