Rotten Tomatoes Predicts the 2020 Emmy Nominations
Who's scoring a nomination next Tuesday? We're betting on Schitt's Creek, The Crown, Watchmen, and Mrs. America to dominate.
(Photo by Pop TV)
Updated July 26, 2020
The Television Academy announces nominees for the 72nd Annual Emmy Awards next Tuesday. We’re feeling the love for the final season of Schitt’s Creek (pictured) — 2020’s top TV series (so far) by Tomatometer — and its stars in the comedy categories for the series’ sixth and final season on Pop TV. For drama, Oscar-winner Olivia Colman (The Favourite) and the season 3 cast of Netflix series The Crown promise to turn in a solid performance during the award nominations.
But what other shows and stars will make the grade and snag a nomination? Leading our bets in drama are season 2 of HBO’s Succession, and season 5 of AMC’s Better Call Saul, and season 3 of Netflix’s Ozark. In comedy, Amazon Prime Video’s The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel season 3, season 2 of FX’s What We Do in the Shadows, and season 2 of Hulu’s Ramy. In the limited series category, FX on Hulu’s Mrs. America, HBO’s Watchmen, and Netflix’s Unbelievable, and those series’ respective casts are all strong contenders for awards.
Check out our Emmy nominations predictions below, and be here on Tuesday when we reveal who officially is nominated for the 2020 Academy Awards. An asterisk (*) indicates the top choice in a category selected by our staff in a poll.
Let us know who you think will be nominated in the comments.
Related: The Best TV Shows of 2020 (So Far)
Outstanding Comedy Series
(Photo by Amazon Prime Video)
Who will be nominated?
79%
100%
*
100%
94%
96%
95%
98%
*
96%
And why? With 34 nominations and 16 Emmys, Amazon Prime Video’s The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel is the title to beat. We think beloved underdog comedy Schitt’s Creek and its cast will be recognized for the sixth and final season of the Pop series, which is Certified Fresh at 100% on the Tomatometer, compared to Maisel’s 82% for season 3. Schitt’s Creek has four previous nominations from last year. Our staff also has put its faith in FX’s vampire comedy What We Do in the Shadows to break into the comedy series Emmy nominations this year (it was nominated for cinematography and sound editing last year).
Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
(Photo by Pop TV)
Who will be nominated?
Catherine O’Hara –
100%
*
Rachel Brosnahan–
79%
Christina Applegate –
96%
Linda Cardellini –
96%
Issa Rae –
96%
Pamela Adlon –
100%
And why? O’Hara has been a strong focus of support for her role as Moira on Schitt’s Creek. Our staff agrees, voting overwhelmingly that O’Hara will see another nomination this year. Brosnahan has had three Emmy nominations in her career and won once, in this category, for her her role as Midge Maisel. Meanwhile, the stars of Dead to Me are likely to split their vote come award-voting time, though we predict that both Applegate and Cardellini will be nominated. That leaves one-time nominee Rae and Adlon, seven-time nominee, one-time Emmy winner (for Outstanding Voice-Over Performance) to face off for the final spots in this category’s nominations against other possible contenders like Awkwafina (Nora from Queens), Elle Fanning (The Great), Kristen Bell (The Good Place), and Zöe Kravitz (High Fidelity).
Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
(Photo by Craig Blankenhorn/Hulu)
Who will be nominated?
Eugene Levy –
100%
*
Ted Danson –
100%
Larry David –
94%
Ramy Youssef –
95%
*
Michael Douglas –
100%
Steve Carell –
39%
And why? Levy and Youssef tied for our staff votes as shoo-ins for nominations. They face Danson, who’s been nominated in this category for the past two years and six-time nominee David. We expect Douglas and Carell to round out nominations in the category.
Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
(Photo by Amazon Prime Video)
Who will be nominated?
Alex Borstein –
79%
*
Kate McKinnon –
73%
Jane Lynch –
79%
Annie Murphy –
100%
Marin Hinkle –
79%
Betty Gilpin –
87%
D’Arcy Carden –
100%
Yvonne Orji –
96%
And why? Borstein has won this category the past two years in a row for her role as Susie Myerson in The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel and is again the front runner this year (the RT staff agreed). The category is chock full of strong supporting performances — including seven-time nominee, two-time winner McKinnon and 12-time nominee, five-time winner Lynch — from a diverse lineup of comedy programming. But can any of them best Borstein come awards time?
Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
(Photo by Craig Blankenhorn/Hulu)
Who will be nominated?
Tony Shalhoub –
79%
Dan Levy –
100%
*
Alan Arkin –
100%
Sterling K. Brown –
79%
Kenan Thompson –
73%
Mahershala Ali –
95%
*
James Marsden –
96%
John Malkovich –
39%
And why? With 10 nominations and four wins (including last year’s win in this category for his role as doting dad Abe Weissman), Shalhoub is an Emmy heavyweight. Our staff chose Levy and Ali as certain contenders in the category, while Arkin, Brown, and Thompson are odds-on nominees. Marsden and Malkovich are less certain in a category that may see Louie Anderson for Baskets, Nicholas Hoult for The Great, or Noah Reid for Schitt’s Creek show up in nominations instead.
Outstanding Drama Series
(Photo by HBO)
Who will be nominated?
97%
*
98%
90%
99%
82%
62%
98%
80%
And why? There’s no way Succession’s second season could be left out of nominations in this category. The HBO series is favored by odds and the RT staff. Every season of every show in our nomination predictions is Certified Fresh at over 80% except The Morning Show, but despite critical response to the Apple TV+ star vehicle, we think the Television Academy will want to recognize the title. We predict Pose and Euphoria will get nominations, but strong contenders like Big Little Lies, Westworld, Stranger Things, and Killing Eve all have a very good chance to knock them out of consideration. It’s a tough fight in the drama category for those last spots in nominations.
Lead Actress in a Drama Series
(Photo by Sophie Mutevelian / Netflix)
Who will be nominated?
Olivia Colman –
90%
*
Laura Linney –
98%
Jennifer Aniston –
62%
Elisabeth Moss –
82%
Jodie Comer –
80%
Zendaya –
80%
And why? Colman received her first Oscar for her starring role in The Favourite in 2018 and has been Emmy-nominated twice for supporting categories for Fleabag and The Night Manager. She is now the actress to beat for her highly-anticipated turn as Queen Elizabeth II in season 3 of The Crown. Moss has won twice on 11 nominations, including winning for her role as Offred / June Osborne and one producing award for season 1 of The Handmaid’s Tale. In 2018, she lost out in this category to Claire Foy for playing young Queen Elizabeth in The Crown. Linney and Aniston, meanwhile are Emmy favorites with six nominations each in their careers, with Linney winning four times and Aniston winning once. Comer is the incumbent here, but with a bit of the shine off of Killing Eve — season 3 is Certified Fresh at 80% compared to season 1’s 96% and 2’s 92% — may have a harder time prevailing come awards time. Zendaya faces huge challengers for the last spot on the nominations list: Viola Davis in How to Get Away with Murder, Nicole Kidman in Big Little Lies, Sandra Oh in Killing Eve, Claire Danes in Homeland, and Reese Witherspoon in The Morning Show. But we think the actress pulled off a phenomenal performance in season 1 of the HBO series and deserves the nomination, and we’re betting Academy members may agree with us. This is another tough category.
Lead Actor in a Drama Series
(Photo by Greg Lewis/AMC/Sony Pictures Television)
Who will be nominated?
Brian Cox –
97%
Jason Bateman –
98%
Bob Odenkirk –
99%
*
Jeremy Strong –
97%
Billy Porter –
98%
Tobias Menzies –
90%
And why? An Odenkirk nomination is a no-brainer for his titular role in season 5 of Better Call Saul, a season that saw the character move closer to being the Saul Goodman we remember from Breaking Bad, which won Emmys for all 16 of its nominations. Odenkirk has two previous Emmys for writing. Cox and Strong may split the vote for their exceptional performances in Succession, Bateman is considered a lock for a nomination, and Porter won this category last year for his role as Pray Tell in the FX series. Menzies is the wild card here. Can he grab that last spot from Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us), Al Pacino (Hunters), Patrick Stewart (Star Trek: Picard), and Rami Malek (Mr. Robot)? We’re betting on it.
Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
(Photo by Greg Lewis/AMC/Sony Pictures Television)
Who will be nominated?
Helena Bonham Carter –
90%
*
Julia Garner –
98%
*
Meryl Streep –
85%
Laura Dern –
85%
Sarah Snook –
97%
Rhea Seehorn –
99%
Thandie Newton –
73%
Ann Dowd –
82%
And why? Mostly known for her film career, Bonham Carter is a newbie at the Emmys — but one to beat for her many-layered performance as aging Princess Margaret in season 3 of The Crown. She’s going head-to-head with last year’s winner in the category Julia Garner for her role as Ruth Langmore in Ozark. Streep and Dern are favored for their roles in Big Little Lies. Less certain, however, are the nominations for Snook and Seehorn with their major competitors including two former winners in this category, Newton (Westworld) and Dowd (The Handmaid’s Tale), as well as Janet McTeer (Ozark), previously nominated for Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Miniseries or Movie.
Note this category has been updated since publication.
Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
(Photo by Apple TV+)
Who will be nominated?
Jonathan Banks –
99%
Billy Crudup –
62%
*
Kieran Culkin –
97%
Tom Pelphrey –
98%
*
Bradley Whitford –
82%
David Harbour –
89%
Giancarlo Esposito –
99%
Matthew Macfadyen –
97%
And why? Crudup and Pelphrey tied in our staff poll for nominees in the category. Banks and Culkin are also favorites. Whitford, Harbour, Esposito, and Macfadyen are challenged for the last nominations by Mandy Patinkin for Homeland, Josh O’Connor for The Crown, and Jeffrey Wright for Westworld.
Note this category has been updated since publication.
Outstanding Limited Series
(Photo by HBO)
Who will be nominated?
And why? Watchmen, Mrs. America, and Unbelievable are locks for nominations in this category. While we think Little Fires Everywhere and Unorthodox will take a stand for the final two nominations, we also expect that Hollywood, Normal People, I Know This Much Is True, The Plot Against America, and Defending Jacob put up a strong fight.
TV Movie
(Photo by Ben Rothstein / Netflix)
Who will be nominated?
And why? The RT staff didn’t vote in this category, but they all would have voted for El Camino; that said, Bad Education, with its Certified Fresh 93% score and outstanding cast led by Hugh Jackman and Allison Janney, may be the stronger candidate when it comes to awards night. With an even higher 98% Certified Fresh score, Blow the Man Down is beloved by critics, but appears to have lower odds with Emmy voters. We would not be the first outlet — Variety, IndieWire — to lament that the category should have a larger number of strong contenders than it does.
Note this category has been updated since publication.
Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Movie
(Photo by Pari Dukovic/FX)
Who will be nominated?
Cate Blanchett –
96%
Regina King –
96%
*
Merritt Wever –
98%
Kaitlyn Dever –
98%
Shira Haas –
96%
And why? Blanchett and 2018 category winner King are the front runners here, with Dever and Haas close behind for their extraordinary performances in Netflix titles Unbelievable and Unorthodox, respectively. We also expect one of the two stars of Little Fires Everywhere will swoop in and spoil a nomination — it really is a toss-up between Kerry Washington and Reese Witherspoon — and their star power will sway voters to ditch either Dever or Haas.
Note this category has been updated since publication.
Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Movie
(Photo by )
Who will be nominated?
Mark Ruffalo –
74%
*
Aaron Paul –
92%
Hugh Jackman –
94%
Russell Crowe –
55%
Jeremy Irons –
96%
And why? Ruffalo was amazing in two vastly different roles in I Know This Much Is True, while Crowe has garnered high praise for his work in The Loudest Voice (even if the series itself didn’t win over critics). The odds are also in Paul and Jackman’s favor, while Iron’s fights for the last nomination in this category against Paul Mescal for Normal People, Chris Evans for Defending Jacob, Andre Holland for The Eddy, Jeremy Pope and David Corenswet for Hollywood, Matthew Macfadyen for Quiz, Sacha Baron Cohen for The Spy, and Nick Offerman for Devs.
Note this category has been updated since publication.
Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Movie
(Photo by Saeed Adyana/Netflix)
Who will be nominated?
Allison Janney –
94%
Toni Collette –
98%
Jean Smart –
96%
*
Rose Byrne –
96%
Margo Martindale –
96%
Patti LuPone –
58%
And why? It’s a hard Emmy season to be a woman. This category, for instance, is spread incredibly thin across a great selection of talent led by Janney, Collette and Smart as favorites for a nomination. Byrne, Martindale, and LuPone are all challenged by the likes of Holland Taylor for Hollywood and Sarah Paulson, Uzo Aduba, and Tracey Ullman for their performances in Mrs. America. Meanwhile, Hong Chau (Watchmen), Melissa Leo (I Know This Much Is True), Cherry Jones (Defending Jacob), and Emma Thompson (Years and Years) all deserve a mention.
Note this category has been updated since publication.
Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie
(Photo by Netflix)
Who will be nominated?
Jim Parsons –
58%
Tim Blake Nelson –
96%
*
John Slattery –
96%
John Turturro –
87%
Joe Mantello –
58%
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II –
96%
And why? Four-time Emmy winner Parsons is the favorite for a nomination by the odds, while our staff picked Nelson. Of the remainder, Abdul-Mateen II seems the most vulnerable with Emmy winner Darrin Criss (Hollywood) hot on his heels.
The 2020 Emmy nominations are announced Tuesday, July 28, at 11:30 a.m. EDT / 8:30 a.m. PDT. Check back at Rotten Tomatoes to see who gets a nod.
