Rotten Tomatoes’ Ridiculously Early Oscar Nominations Predictions
The Academy Awards are still five months away, but we've got some thoughts on who is likely to take home the hardware.
In our current 365 days-a-year awards cycle, “ridiculously early” is hard to quantify. The end of Emmy season dovetails into fall festival season, which kicks off Oscar season, which ends weeks before the first days of next year’s television awards cycle. With no break or delineation between the phases, early is in the eye of the prognosticator.
People in the know on who will win trophies have been chatting about next year’s hopefuls for months. They say Project Hail Mary, the final installment of Dune, Cannes darling La Bola Negra, and Christopher Nolan’s Best Picture frontrunner The Odyssey are the titles most likely to lead nominations. Nolan is poised to repeat with a Best Director win, and Julianne Moore (The Debut), Paul Giamatti (The Debut), John Malkovich (Wild Horse Nine), and Anne Hathaway (The Odyssey) are consensus picks for the top acting prizes, but it’s only October. Releasing predictions in October, five months before Oscar night and three months before nominations, is a fraught endeavor that usually subjects participants to ridicule in short order. These may be the likely names today, but Demi Moore (The Substance), Ariana Grande (Wicked), and Timothee Chalamet (Marty Supreme) were once the consensus picks. In case you need a reminder, none of them took home the final prize, which is why we included our spoiler picks for our noms. These choices are not favored to break through once the nominations are tabulated, but they have a fighter’s chance.
And now is also the time to champion as much as predict, and we have a few interesting entries listed below that we think deserve more attention — nominations that will likely be singing their “should-woulda-couldas” on nomination morning but still have the goods to make a go of it this Oscars season. And the biggest events of the season that can change a contender’s chances overnight are just on the horizon. Be sure to check out and bookmark our Awards Calendar for all the key dates.
This weekend, the Academy Museum Gala will be the fist major event, signaling exactly who thinks they could win an Oscar, even if the voters have yet to weigh in. Honoring John Carpenter, Colman Domingo, and Charlize Theron, the red carpet is a veritable who’s who of trophy hopefuls. Taylor Swift’s added star power only ups the ante, with the singer rumored to perform at the Met Gala-inspired fête. Additionally, those raves from earlier in festival season are starting to make their way to New York and LA, along with the star-studded tastemakers that will determine whether those initial raptures from critics and festivalgoers hold weight among the various guilds and AMPAS voters. Digger, for example, earned a mixed response from critics but is gaining steam and affection with the guilds and A-listers. Ben Affleck, Guillermo del Toro, Anne Hathaway, Ron Howard, and Jane Fonda are all raving about Tom Cruise, Alejandro González Iñárritu, and team.
But there is still more to come, and several films are still to be seen. David Fincher and Quentin Tarantino’s Cliff Booth movie, Dune: Part Three, and Robert Eggers’ Werwulf are among those still not widely seen, but early whispers suggest they’ll screen soon. Our predictions are based on what we have seen so far, plus early rumors and script speculation. Whether they have a Tomatometer score or not, the campaigns are quietly underway, the conversation has started, and we’re now ready to join it. Read on as we break down our ridiculously early picks for next year’s Oscars.
Best Picture
Who will be nominated?
Dune: Part Three
La Bola Negra
Obsession
Possible Love
Project Hail Mary
The Odyssey
The Invite
The Debut
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Wild Horse Nine
Possible Spoilers: Fjord, I Play Rocky, You Can See Everything, Being Heumann, Digger, All of a Sudden
Best Actress
Who will be nominated?
Sandra Hüller – The Rose
Jeon Do-yeon– Possible Love
Inde Naverette – Obsession
Olivia Wilde– The Invite
Julianne Moore – The Debut
Possible Spoilers: Zendaya – The Drama, Renate Reinsve – Fjord, Virginie Efira – All of a Sudden, Rosalind Eleazar – Misty Green
Shouda, Woulda, Coulda: Sophie Okonedo – Clarissa, Rinko Kikuchi – Ha-Chan, Shake Your Booty!, Mason Reeves – Josephine, Olivia Colman – Wicker
Best Actor
Who will be nominated?
Matt Damon – The Odyssey
John Malkovich – Wild Horse Nine
Brad Pitt – The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Ryan Gosling – Project Hail Mary
John Turturro – The Only Living Pickpocket in New York
Possible Spoilers: Pedro Pascal – Behemoth!, Andrew Scott – Elsinore, Robert Pattinson – Primetime, Anthony Ippolito – I Play Rocky
Shouda, Woulda, Coulda: Ian McKellen – The Christophers, Dominic Sessa – Tony, Mahershala Ali – Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother, Sul Kyung-gu – Possible Love
Best Costume Design
Who will be nominated?
The Devil Wears Prada 2
Dune: Part Three
La Bola Negra
The Odyssey
Wuthering Heights
Best Production Design
Who will be nominated?f
Project Hail Mary
Dune: Part Three
La Bola Negra
The Odyssey
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Best Cinematography
Who will be nominated?
Project Hail Mary
Dune 3
La Bola Negra
The Odyssey
Werwulf
Best Supporting Actress
Who will be nominated?
Anne Hathaway– The Odyssey
Samantha Morton –The Odyssey
Penelope Cruz – The Invite
Sandra Hüller – Project Hail Mary
Tao Okamoto – All of a Sudden
Possible Spoilers: Kate O’Flynn – Tender Loving Care, Penelope Cruz – La Bola Negra, Mariana Di Girolamo – Wild Horse Nine, Zendaya – The Odyssey
Shouda, Woulda, Coulda: Gemma Chan – Josephine, Elizabeth Debicki – Wicker, Nia Long – Michael, Cara Delevingne – Club Kid
Best Supporting Actor
Who will be nominated?
John Leguizamo – The Odyssey
Sam Rockwell – Wild Horse Nine
Paul Giamatti – The Debut
Coleman Domingo – Michael
Guitarricadelafuente – La Bola Negra
Possible Spoilers: Andrew Garfield – Artificial, Edward Norton – The Invite, Robert Pattinson – The Odyssey
Could Woulda Shoulda: Riz Ahmed – Digger
Best International Film
Who will be nominated?
Possible Love
La Bola Negra
Fjord
Minotaur
All of a Sudden
Best Original Score
Who will be nominated?
The Odyssey
Project Hail Mary
Dune: Part Three
La Bola Negra
Disclosure Day
Best Director
Who will be nominated?
Christopher Nolan – The Odyssey
Martin McDonagh – Wild Horse Nine
Denis Villeneuve – Dune: Part Three
Jesse Eisenberg – The Debut
Phil Lord and Chris Miller – Project Hail Mary
Possible Spoilers: Ryusuke Hamaguchi – All of a Sudden, Luca Guadagnino – Artificial, Alejandro G. Iñárritu – Digger, Lee Chang-dong – Possible Love, David Fincher – The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Could Woulda Shoulda: Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim – You Can See Everything
Best Adapted Screenplay
Who will be nominated?
Dune: Part Three
The Odyssey
The Further Mis-Adventure of Cliff Booth
The Invite
Project Hail Mary
Best Original Screenplay
Who will be nominated?
Club Kid
Obesssion
Tender Loving Care
The Debut
Wild Horse Nine
Best Animated Feature
Who will be nominated?
Wildwood
Forgotten Island
Toy Story 5
The Violinist
Ray Gunn
Possible Spoilers: In Waves, Hoppers
Best Original Song
Who will be nominated?
“I Knew It, I Knew You – Toy Story 5
“By Any Means” – By Any Means
“When I’m Home” – The Odyssey
“Shape of a Woman“ – The Devil Wears Prada 2
“La Nieve” – La Bola Negra
