By opening this year’s Emmy voting process up to 19,000 Television Academy members — rather than leaving it up to select “blue-ribbon” panels of voters — the already-notoriously difficult to predict Primetime Emmy Awards are even more of a wild card than ever. (And if you haven’t already read Todd VanDerWerff’s informative article on this year’s Emmy voting on Vox, we suggest you do so.)
Still, at Rotten Tomatoes, we have a not-so-secret weapon — our Tomatometer-approved TV critics. After polling some of our top critics, tallying up Gold Derby picks, and poring over Emmy articles across the internet, we have predictions for this Sunday’s awards. Also, we’ve ranked the nominated shows by Tomatometer here.
The Nominees:
Better Call Saul
Game of Thrones
Mad Men
Orange Is the New Black
Homeland
Downton Abbey
House of Cards
The Favorite:
“Game of Thrones is certainly a player, for one of its strongest seasons to date, but… it will no doubt have to sit this one out so Mad Men can enjoy one last, and well-deserved, victory lap.” — Ed Gonzalez, Slant Magazine
The Runner-Up:
“I think it deserves it this year because the show actually improved on where the books are at this stage in the game.” — Matt Roush, TV Insider
The Nominees:
Taraji P. Henson as Cookie Lyon, Empire
Claire Danes as Carrie Mathison, Homeland
Robin Wright as Claire Underwood, House of Cards
Viola Davis as Annalise Keating, How to Get Away With Murder
Elisabeth Moss as Peggy Olson, Mad Men
Tatiana Maslany as Sarah, Alison, Cosima, Helena, Rachel and Krystal, Orphan Black
The Favorite:
“Viola Davis should win, and I think will win. It’s a remarkable performance in a fun but not remarkable show, and she just gives a performance that’s so real and grounding and powerful.” — Robert Bianco, USA Today
The Runner-Up:
“An exciting performance on the series that proved that, even in an age when cable and streaming video routinely steal the show, a broadcast network can still launch an empire.” — Frazier Moore, Associated Press
The Nominees:
Bob Odenkirk as Jimmy McGill, Better Call Saul
Kyle Chandler as John Rayburn, Bloodline
Kevin Spacey as Francis Underwood, House of Cards
Jon Hamm as Don Draper, Mad Men
Jeff Daniels as Will McAvoy, The Newsroom
Liev Schreiber as Ray Donovan, Ray Donovan
The Favorite:
“It’s an iconic performance that deserves recognition not just historically, but for his work in the final season, which stripped Don (or Dick) down to his core and forced him to reckon with all the bad choices he had made in his life.” — Alan Sepinwall, HitFix
The Runner-Up:
“By process of elimination — and the Emmys’ past love for the Breaking Bad — I’m actually going to name Bob Odenkirk as winner here.” — Brittany Volk, Tampa Bay Times
The Nominees:
Joanne Froggatt as Anna Bates, Downton Abbey
Lena Headey as Cersei Lannister, Game of Thrones
Emilia Clarke as Daenerys Targaryen, Game of Thrones
Christine Baranski as Diane Lockhart, The Good Wife
Christina Hendricks as Joan Harris, Mad Men
Uzo Aduba as Suzanne “Crazy Eyes” Warren, Orange Is the New Black
The Favorite:
“Christina Hendricks’ Joan Holloway Harris had the most dramatic arc of anyone inside the Sterling Cooper clique aside from Don Draper himself in Mad Men‘s final season. She’ll help the show maintain its sweep.” — Sean T. Collins, RollingStone.com
The Runner-Up:
“If Lena doesn’t win for walking the gauntlet of a bunch of rock-throwing village folk, then I may have to do it myself (but only on the way to kitchen, in front of my cats, and at night).” — Lynette Rice, Entertainment Weekly
The Nominees:
Jonathan Banks as Mike Ehrmantraut, Better Call Saul
Ben Mendelsohn as Danny Rayburn, Bloodline
Jim Carter as Mr. Carson, Downton Abbey
Peter Dinklage as Tyrion Lannister, Game of Thrones
Alan Cumming as Eli Gold, The Good Wife
Michael Kelly as Doug Stamper, House of Cards
The Favorite:
“Five-O” helps explain why Mike is so grizzled, so of course the highlights are Banks showing the exact map of his vulnerabilities.” — Margaret Lyons and Matt Zoller Setiz, Vulture
The Runner-Up:
“He was terrific and deserves to win. I know “will” and “deserves to” don’t always conjoin, but I hope so in this case.” — Ken Tucker, Yahoo
The Nominees:
American Crime
American Horror Story: Freak Show
The Honorable Woman
Olive Kitteridge
Wolf Hall
The Favorite:
“[It’s] a chance for voters to feel literary.” — David Hinckley, New York Daily News
The Runner-Up:
“American Crime with Felicity Huffman and Timothy Hutton, on a broadcast network, no less, was an amazing and relevant drama that deserves to win.” — Joanne Ostrow, Denver Post
The Nominees:
Louie
Modern Family
Parks And Recreation
Silicon Valley
Transparent
Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Veep
The Favorite:
“After honoring Julia Louis-Dreyfus and Tony Hale for Veep in years past, the TV Academy will extend its love to the series as a whole (in part because it’s creator Armando Iannucci’s last season on the show).” — Ben Travers, IndieWire
The Runner-Up:
“Amazon will be the first streaming service to have its own best series win. It will also be very deserved.” — Tim Goodman, The Hollywood Reporter
The Nominees:
Anthony Anderson as Andre Johnson, black-ish
Matt LeBlanc as Matt LeBlanc, Episodes
Don Cheadle as Marty Kaan, House of Lies
Will Forte as Phil Miller, The Last Man on Earth
Louis C.K. as Louie, Louie
William H. Macy as Frank Gallagher, Shameless
Jeffrey Tambor as Maura Pfefferman, Transparent
The Favorite:
“It was transformative for him and for viewers, and just one of the year’s most remarkable performances in any category by anyone.” — Robert Bianco, USA Today
The Runner-Up:
There is no clear runner-up in this category.
The Nominees:
Lisa Kudrow as Valerie Cherish, The Comeback
Lily Tomlin as Frankie, Grace and Frankie
Amy Schumer as Amy, Inside Amy Schumer
Edie Falco as Jackie Peyton, Nurse Jackie
Amy Poehler as Leslie Knope, Parks and Recreation
Julia Louis-Dreyfus as President Selina Meyer, Veep
The Favorite:
“This is a tough one. I hate to keep saying Julia Louis-Dreyfus but she keeps kicking ass.” — Eric Deggans, NPR
The Runner-Up:
“Schumer has to have such versatility and she plays such a huge role in the show as well. I think it’s just a lock for her.” — Lori Rackl, TV Trippin
The Nominees:
Andre Braugher as Captain Ray Holt, Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Adam Driver as Adam Sackler, Girls
Keegan-Michael Key as Various characters, Key & Peele
Ty Burrell as Phil Dunphy, Modern Family
Tituss Burgess as Titus Andromedon, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Tony Hale as Gary Walsh, Veep
The Favorite:
“This season, Gary finally found the courage to stand up to his boss, the inimitable Selina Meyer — at the very least, he deserves a trophy.” — Debra Birnbaum, Variety
The Runner-Up:
“Burgess is the least known of the nominees, but the scene-stealer gives the biggest and silliest performance of them all. And two words: ‘Peeno Noir.'” — Joyce Eng, TV Guide
The Nominees:
Mayim Bialik as Amy Farrah Fowler, The Big Bang Theory
Niecy Nash as Denise “Didi” Ortley, Getting On
Julie Bowen as Claire Dunphy, Modern Family
Allison Janney as Bonnie, Mom
Kate McKinnon as Various characters, Saturday Night Live
Gaby Hoffmann as Ali Pfefferman, Transparent
Jane Krakowski as Jacqueline Voorhees, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Anna Chlumsky as Amy Brookheimer, Veep
The Favorite:
“Allison Janney is a six-time Emmy winner and will likely earn another gong for Mom.” — Eliana Dockterman, TIME Magazine
The Runner-Up:
“Janney is an Academy favorite… But this year, I’m expecting Chlumsky to leave with the statue, particularly since her episode submission, “Convention,” features her brilliant explosion at Selina.” — Matthew Gilbert, The Boston Globe
The Nominees:
Drunk History
Inside Amy Schumer
Key & Peele
Portlandia
Saturday Night Live
The Favorite:
“Schumer wins. Because she went with episode-long parody of a film that most of her audience hasn’t seen in its entirety since that drama sub came in for a month sophomore year of high school.” — Drew Grant, New York Observer
The Runner-Up:
“As far as a sketch series, the industry standard, the highest level you can get to is Key and Peele. They are my will-win and should-win.” — Tim Goodman, The Hollywood Reporter
