Box Office Guru Preview: Vantage Point Aims For #1 Debut

Charlie Bartlett, Be Kind Rewind, Witless Prtoection also opening

by | February 21, 2008 | Comments

A terrorist attack is played out through multiple perspectives in the high-octane political thriller Vantage Point which leads the four-pack of new openers which also includes three small comedies. Sony will score its first number one hit since October with this star-driven actioner which boasts a cast that features Dennis Quaid, Forest Whitaker, Sigourney Weaver, Matthew Fox, and William Hurt. The PG-13 pic has the biggest marketing and distribution push of any new release this weekend so a comfortable lead over its competitors should be expected. None of the actors are guaranteed box office sensations, but together they equal one big bankable A-lister.

Adults will make up the primary age group and appeal seems strong to both males and females. The intriguing style of the film will make it stand out from the crowd, although fellow action options Jumper and Fool’s Gold will provide some competition. Plus many adults will be preoccupied with their last chance to see the Oscar nominees before Sunday night’s big show. The five Best Picture candidates banked $14M over Presidents’ Day weekend. Vantage Point should play to the same folks that came out for other star-driven non-special effects action and suspense pics from this time of year like Sahara ($18.1M), The Interpreter ($22.8M) and Premonition ($17.6M). Attacking over 3,000 locations, Vantage Point could open to about $21M this weekend.


Vantage Point

Jack Black and Mos Def star in the video store comedy Be Kind Rewind playing two men who recreate top Hollywood movies after their tapes get damaged. The PG-13 film from New Line comes from acclaimed French director Michel Gondry who after Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind and The Science of Sleep has built up his share of fans on this side of the Atlantic. A marketplace full of new comedies will split that crowd so Rewind will have to rely on fans of the director and stars to come out. Jumper and Vantage Point will also take mainstream moviegoers out of the picture. Breaking into roughly 800 theaters, Be Kind Rewind could bow to about $3M.


Mos Def and Jack Black in Driving Miss Daisy, er, Be Kind Rewind

Larry the Cable Guy returns for more blue collar humor in the Lionsgate comedy Witless Protection opening on Friday. The standup comedian plays a small town sheriff that kidnaps a woman in FBI custody for a road trip to solve a case. Rated PG-13, the pic has the goal of establishing the funnyman as a box office draw, but if the grosses of his last two films are any indication, this one will be gunned down quickly. Two years ago, Larry the Cable Guy: Health Inspector debuted to $6.9M while last year’s Delta Farce slumped by half to a $3.4M bow. Diminishing returns could again be in order especially since Witless will not be released as wide. Opening in 1,333 locations, Witless Protection might collect about $3M this weekend.


Larry the Cable Guy and Jenny McCarthy in Witless Protection

After many delays, MGM releases the comedy Charlie Bartlett which stars that iron guy Robert Downey Jr., Hope Davis, and Anton Yelchin as the title character. The R-rated film tells of a private school kid who becomes an underground shrink and pill pusher in public school. Teens are a core component of the target audience, but the restrictive rating will keep many of them out. The marketing push has not been strong and a lack of starpower and excitement will keep the grosses low. Juno‘s brand of high school fun in its 12th weekend could see a bigger audience. Entering about 1,000 theaters, Charlie Bartlett may debut to around $2M.


Anton Yelchin and Robert Downey, Jr. in Charlie Bartlett

Fox’s sci-fi actioner Jumper should take a big jump down this weekend. Word-of-mouth is not all that great and Vantage Point will steal away much of the action crowd. Look for a 50% drop to about $13.5M which would give the Hayden Christensen flick $57M in eleven days.

The Spiderwick Chronicles got off to a solid start last weekend as the only major offering for families and with no new kidpics entering the scene, a smaller decline is assured. Sophomore drops for Disney’s own Presidents’ Day weekend films from the past two years were 37% for Bridge to Terabithia and 21% for 2006’s Eight Below. Spiderwick could fall in between with a 30% fall giving Paramount $13M for the frame and $44M after eleven days.

Following a potent debut, Step Up 2 The Streets will suffer a sizable drop. The dance sequel may lose 45% of its take and gross $10M pushing the eleven-day cume to $42M. Warner Bros. should see its comedy adventure Fool’s Gold drop by 35% to around $8M. Total would climb to $54M.

LAST YEAR: Spending its second weekend on top, Sony’s Ghost Rider starring Academy Award winner Nicolas Cage fell hard but still pulled in $20.1M to top the box office over Oscar weekend. Jim Carrey gave horror a chance with The Number 23 and debuted in second with a solid $14.6M bow. The New Line release eventually grossed $35.2M and was the first of many thrillers in 2007 that marked major Hollywood stars doing their first scary movies. Disney’s Bridge to Terabithia slipped one spot to third with $14.2M in its sophomore frame. Fox’s comedy Reno 911!: Miami debuted in fourth with $10.3M representing half of its eventual $20.3M final tally. Fellow comedy Norbit rounded out the top five with $9.8M in its third session. Opening at the lower rungs of the top ten were the Billy Bob Thornton drama The Astronaut Farmer with $4.5M and the slave trade drama Amazing Grace with $4.1M from a more limited release. Totals reached $11M for Warner Bros. and $21.3M for Goldwyn/Roadside Attractions.

Author: Gitesh Pandya, www.BoxOfficeGuru.com

Tag Cloud

The Walking Dead Holiday biography MSNBC Crackle blockbuster Reality Competition scene in color latino Baby Yoda chucky comiccon FXX docudrama Writers Guild of America Martial Arts 2018 RT History nbcuniversal Hear Us Out king kong monster movies PlayStation leaderboard 21st Century Fox Emmy Nominations Winter TV CMT Paramount Network BBC One prank Best and Worst ghosts VH1 cancelled TV series spider-man APB Cosplay sequels spinoff Christmas PaleyFest Calendar Fox News Mary Tyler Moore El Rey Sundance technology Freeform Starz scorecard Classic Film hispanic Oscars AMC Plus award winner TBS SXSW Sci-Fi heist movie Turner Classic Movies Pride Month slasher kids Universal Pictures cancelled TV shows rotten Rom-Com versus Cannes Acorn TV medical drama Tokyo Olympics parents Mystery dramedy Nickelodeon disaster target adventure comic book movie adenture cooking Horror popular Chilling Adventures of Sabrina indiana jones Animation trophy kaiju Country IFC Films remakes Image Comics Legendary Sneak Peek 79th Golden Globes Awards Spike toronto Apple TV Plus laika NBC Opinion rotten movies we love dexter dreamworks reboot Winners anime Logo DGA japan japanese Nat Geo Bravo Pirates Character Guide foreign golden globe awards Anna Paquin Schedule San Diego Comic-Con Shudder Box Office stand-up comedy Rocky spain stop motion CW Seed Film Festival Hallmark legend facebook franchise debate A24 toy story Nominations anthology talk show Emmys tv talk action-comedy HBO Max Dark Horse Comics child's play 2020 Tubi elevated horror crossover black cars crime drama razzies The Walt Disney Company renewed TV shows streaming movies Red Carpet Broadway cancelled TCA 2017 serial killer ViacomCBS kong video Watching Series Tarantino supernatural Disney unscripted Amazon Prime Video DirecTV Infographic Musical marvel cinematic universe football First Look twilight game show jamie lee curtis Shondaland witnail Toys lord of the rings new york diversity Song of Ice and Fire Stephen King worst Sony Pictures Columbia Pictures black comedy Teen all-time police drama adaptation screenings blockbusters films nfl historical drama hist Travel Channel sag awards Trailer theme song Discovery Channel french young adult DC streaming service USA The CW saw genre binge Paramount suspense Spectrum Originals vs. period drama 2017 justice league Film 2019 Marvel Television Adult Swim CNN Disney+ Disney Plus live event Apple TV+ high school Lifetime posters Paramount Plus OneApp wonder woman transformers deadpool batman universal monsters Netflix Christmas movies rt labs festival obituary USA Network screen actors guild ITV christmas movies HBO Lifetime Christmas movies movie TruTV E! olympics Drama Video Games SDCC Mary poppins Pixar TV Countdown scary movies Awards Certified Fresh Disney Plus LGBTQ game of thrones spanish 78th Annual Golden Globe Awards venice basketball reviews streaming book adaptation Disney streaming service Universal new star wars movies MCU HFPA FX on Hulu Year in Review book Photos Interview Hollywood Foreign Press Association Wes Anderson archives joker space romantic comedy Family NYCC Thanksgiving Brie Larson Podcast Epix mcc godzilla Instagram Live composers canceled TV shows criterion Tumblr mockumentary Kids & Family finale comic books cartoon History Marathons thriller mission: impossible docuseries BAFTA true crime new zealand 4/20 Amazon Studios cops what to watch aliens FOX The Witch doctor who singing competition a nightmare on elm street fresh spider-verse President know your critic 90s DC Universe Apple women 71st Emmy Awards spanish language CBS satire YouTube Premium Extras name the review Comedy Marvel 45 documentary superman harry potter Rocketman Exclusive Video sports Pet Sematary mutant Amazon Prime zombie MTV dragons richard e. Grant werewolf romance First Reviews SundanceTV Endgame south america superhero casting Trophy Talk Star Trek Premiere Dates Neflix New York Comic Con psycho Elton John golden globes Election TV renewals Polls and Games GIFs Peacock Mary Poppins Returns nature zombies critic resources hollywood independent ABC Awards Tour dc best Ghostbusters Crunchyroll 2015 VICE art house See It Skip It 24 frames movies The Arrangement international halloween 2021 Tags: Comedy Pop Superheroes TLC Fall TV Syfy travel Turner psychological thriller Sundance TV critics Spring TV mob Alien sequel Academy Awards cults rt labs critics edition Sundance Now Cartoon Network Comedy Central political drama WGN discovery LGBT Hallmark Christmas movies Musicals TCA king arthur Black Mirror robots australia dogs TIFF Star Wars science fiction Lucasfilm comedies hidden camera Britbox Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt telelvision emmy awards Women's History Month Grammys Hulu free movies Summer 73rd Emmy Awards PBS X-Men classics spy thriller Funimation Pacific Islander Holidays rt archives Mindy Kaling ratings revenge based on movie Showtime Vudu festivals TV Land Marvel Studios boxoffice comic TCA Awards social media Creative Arts Emmys GLAAD breaking bad Fantasy dark 20th Century Fox VOD aapi BBC A&E Captain marvel strong female leads American Society of Cinematographers green book slashers CBS All Access Action Ovation National Geographic sopranos RT21 Rock crime Arrowverse TCM ESPN IFC halloween tv 2016 OWN Food Network asian-american Disney Channel pirates of the caribbean 007 Comic-Con@Home 2021 politics Superheroe animated zero dark thirty Masterpiece gangster YA ID Heroines Set visit series Television Critics Association Biopics BET Netflix cancelled television crime thriller live action children's TV fast and furious Amazon Chernobyl video on demand war comic book movies feel good vampires cats 1990s Quiz directors Walt Disney Pictures hispanic heritage month DC Comics Television Academy miniseries GoT comics documentaries Trivia 93rd Oscars FX stoner YouTube Red marvel comics blaxploitation news Tomatazos Western Fargo Music cinemax E3 BET Awards canceled TCA Winter 2020 TNT Comics on TV Warner Bros. rom-coms teaser concert biopic TV One die hard Black History Month Avengers Prime Video dceu boxing television ABC Family Reality WarnerMedia NBA scary 72 Emmy Awards indie Lionsgate ABC Signature 99% The Academy james bond HBO Go Mudbound AMC worst movies TV movies YouTube natural history royal family sitcom Pop TV The Purge Fox Searchlight jurassic park IMDb TV Ellie Kemper Binge Guide trailers quibi Super Bowl Valentine's Day BBC America Esquire italian Comic Book