Box Office Guru Preview: Vantage Point Aims For #1 Debut

Charlie Bartlett, Be Kind Rewind, Witless Prtoection also opening

by | February 21, 2008 | Comments

A terrorist attack is played out through multiple perspectives in the high-octane political thriller Vantage Point which leads the four-pack of new openers which also includes three small comedies. Sony will score its first number one hit since October with this star-driven actioner which boasts a cast that features Dennis Quaid, Forest Whitaker, Sigourney Weaver, Matthew Fox, and William Hurt. The PG-13 pic has the biggest marketing and distribution push of any new release this weekend so a comfortable lead over its competitors should be expected. None of the actors are guaranteed box office sensations, but together they equal one big bankable A-lister.

Adults will make up the primary age group and appeal seems strong to both males and females. The intriguing style of the film will make it stand out from the crowd, although fellow action options Jumper and Fool’s Gold will provide some competition. Plus many adults will be preoccupied with their last chance to see the Oscar nominees before Sunday night’s big show. The five Best Picture candidates banked $14M over Presidents’ Day weekend. Vantage Point should play to the same folks that came out for other star-driven non-special effects action and suspense pics from this time of year like Sahara ($18.1M), The Interpreter ($22.8M) and Premonition ($17.6M). Attacking over 3,000 locations, Vantage Point could open to about $21M this weekend.

Vantage Point

Jack Black and Mos Def star in the video store comedy Be Kind Rewind playing two men who recreate top Hollywood movies after their tapes get damaged. The PG-13 film from New Line comes from acclaimed French director Michel Gondry who after Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind and The Science of Sleep has built up his share of fans on this side of the Atlantic. A marketplace full of new comedies will split that crowd so Rewind will have to rely on fans of the director and stars to come out. Jumper and Vantage Point will also take mainstream moviegoers out of the picture. Breaking into roughly 800 theaters, Be Kind Rewind could bow to about $3M.

Mos Def and Jack Black in Driving Miss Daisy, er, Be Kind Rewind

Larry the Cable Guy returns for more blue collar humor in the Lionsgate comedy Witless Protection opening on Friday. The standup comedian plays a small town sheriff that kidnaps a woman in FBI custody for a road trip to solve a case. Rated PG-13, the pic has the goal of establishing the funnyman as a box office draw, but if the grosses of his last two films are any indication, this one will be gunned down quickly. Two years ago, Larry the Cable Guy: Health Inspector debuted to $6.9M while last year’s Delta Farce slumped by half to a $3.4M bow. Diminishing returns could again be in order especially since Witless will not be released as wide. Opening in 1,333 locations, Witless Protection might collect about $3M this weekend.

Larry the Cable Guy and Jenny McCarthy in Witless Protection

After many delays, MGM releases the comedy Charlie Bartlett which stars that iron guy Robert Downey Jr., Hope Davis, and Anton Yelchin as the title character. The R-rated film tells of a private school kid who becomes an underground shrink and pill pusher in public school. Teens are a core component of the target audience, but the restrictive rating will keep many of them out. The marketing push has not been strong and a lack of starpower and excitement will keep the grosses low. Juno‘s brand of high school fun in its 12th weekend could see a bigger audience. Entering about 1,000 theaters, Charlie Bartlett may debut to around $2M.

Anton Yelchin and Robert Downey, Jr. in Charlie Bartlett

Fox’s sci-fi actioner Jumper should take a big jump down this weekend. Word-of-mouth is not all that great and Vantage Point will steal away much of the action crowd. Look for a 50% drop to about $13.5M which would give the Hayden Christensen flick $57M in eleven days.

The Spiderwick Chronicles got off to a solid start last weekend as the only major offering for families and with no new kidpics entering the scene, a smaller decline is assured. Sophomore drops for Disney’s own Presidents’ Day weekend films from the past two years were 37% for Bridge to Terabithia and 21% for 2006’s Eight Below. Spiderwick could fall in between with a 30% fall giving Paramount $13M for the frame and $44M after eleven days.

Following a potent debut, Step Up 2 The Streets will suffer a sizable drop. The dance sequel may lose 45% of its take and gross $10M pushing the eleven-day cume to $42M. Warner Bros. should see its comedy adventure Fool’s Gold drop by 35% to around $8M. Total would climb to $54M.

LAST YEAR: Spending its second weekend on top, Sony’s Ghost Rider starring Academy Award winner Nicolas Cage fell hard but still pulled in $20.1M to top the box office over Oscar weekend. Jim Carrey gave horror a chance with The Number 23 and debuted in second with a solid $14.6M bow. The New Line release eventually grossed $35.2M and was the first of many thrillers in 2007 that marked major Hollywood stars doing their first scary movies. Disney’s Bridge to Terabithia slipped one spot to third with $14.2M in its sophomore frame. Fox’s comedy Reno 911!: Miami debuted in fourth with $10.3M representing half of its eventual $20.3M final tally. Fellow comedy Norbit rounded out the top five with $9.8M in its third session. Opening at the lower rungs of the top ten were the Billy Bob Thornton drama The Astronaut Farmer with $4.5M and the slave trade drama Amazing Grace with $4.1M from a more limited release. Totals reached $11M for Warner Bros. and $21.3M for Goldwyn/Roadside Attractions.

Author: Gitesh Pandya,

Tag Cloud

Paramount Red Carpet Stephen King TNT anime Heroines thriller zero dark thirty Marathons USA witnail AMC Shudder Holidays dramedy green book Family Lifetime comiccon TV Land Chilling Adventures of Sabrina Trailer Cartoon Network 20th Century Fox golden globes police drama anthology zombie Amazon Prime Video Video Games cops supernatural Country Britbox Animation 2015 Pirates Showtime Tumblr ghosts theme song war mockumentary talk show Musical MTV streaming Elton John historical drama Premiere Dates binge 21st Century Fox TIFF Rom-Com Pride Month Trivia discovery Biopics teaser TCA Film award winner Comedy Central ITV unscripted Pet Sematary Thanksgiving Women's History Month Creative Arts Emmys Bravo CBS All Access Grammys Emmy Nominations VICE Epix Sundance Now Apple Reality Competition Brie Larson CW Seed Ghostbusters cinemax facebook The CW Binge Guide stand-up comedy Cosplay Awards Tour Martial Arts GoT children's TV TCM E! MSNBC based on movie medical drama 24 frames Fox News VH1 Action spider-man crime drama DGA DC Comics Hulu WGN spy thriller series doctor who FOX Disney Channel docudrama CMT quibi 2016 game of thrones RT21 crime thriller boxoffice HBO diversity Sundance APB 45 Nominations OWN RT History psycho spinoff social media FXX Mary Poppins Returns Mystery Esquire cats ESPN E3 Warner Bros. Mindy Kaling Certified Fresh game show Ellie Kemper cooking space Mudbound revenge Summer Food Network adaptation zombies blaxploitation disaster Adult Swim animated BBC Year in Review finale First Reviews Ovation Disney streaming service Opinion CBS dceu CNN WarnerMedia foreign A&E LGBT New York Comic Con GLAAD Emmys miniseries Character Guide transformers History Quiz Superheroe National Geographic El Rey TLC 007 Photos Starz Rock Tomatazos festivals Extras Spike Pixar Rocketman American Society of Cinematographers Election Comics on TV Kids & Family Horror television Best and Worst Writers Guild of America Syfy SundanceTV tv talk Set visit Marvel Tarantino Sneak Peek casting cults justice league GIFs elevated horror PaleyFest Awards Sony Pictures mutant Toys hispanic hist Arrowverse Sci-Fi science fiction comic Music IFC Films spain 2019 SDCC YA Song of Ice and Fire Watching Series Shondaland technology harry potter Christmas book Paramount Network MCU DC streaming service NBC ratings nature See It Skip It jamie lee curtis Countdown Film Festival singing competition Musicals Vudu Universal Comedy crossover 2018 Winter TV natural history Infographic romance Box Office dc period drama Amazon Calendar Star Wars Mary poppins south america YouTube Premium Trophy Talk LGBTQ Super Bowl Crackle President Captain marvel PBS TBS Dark Horse Comics Comic Book NYCC crime Reality TruTV Fall TV The Arrangement Netflix Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt Masterpiece Cannes DirecTV Spectrum Originals Drama SXSW Freeform TV Teen ABC Family Amazon Prime vampires San Diego Comic-Con movies Pop latino 2017 kids Interview Disney Oscars ABC HBO Max YouTube Red Acorn TV sitcom travel IFC sports adventure Nickelodeon Fantasy true crime Black Mirror Polls and Games psychological thriller what to watch BET cars toy story Superheroes Columbia Pictures sequel aliens strong female leads Spring TV Lionsgate FX Chernobyl DC Universe robots TCA 2017 USA Network Podcast The Witch First Look BBC America X-Men Mary Tyler Moore Valentine's Day Anna Paquin political drama Rocky Logo Walt Disney Pictures serial killer spanish language Nat Geo biography Winners composers Star Trek Lucasfilm richard e. Grant dragons Schedule politics Western