Oscar Night Approaches; Who Will Win? Our Predictions Inside!

by | February 22, 2007 | Comments

There’s two ways to predict the Oscars: (1) dissect the awards buzz, attempting to get a feel for the fickle machinations of the Academy voter. Or (2) use your powers of geek math to crunch box office numbers and awards statistics for some cold, hard facts. With both methods in full swing, here’s a rundown of the Internet’s major Oscar predictions.

Best Picture
As usual, the nominees have settled into their niches: two big flicks ("The Departed" and "Babel"), one major underdog ("Little Miss Sunshine"), and two wallflowers ("The Queen" and "Letters from Iwo Jima"). FilmJerk, having combed the last 28 years of Oscar winners for meaningful statistics, posits "The Departed" has history on its side. The Envelope, L.A. Times’ one-stop hub for Hollywood buzz, agrees.

But it ain’t over yet. After polling readers from over 20 blogs, Vizu Answers reveals that 54 percent believe "Babel" will emerge victorious. And in our own unofficial Rotten Tomatoes research of the past 15 or so Oscar ceremonies, we discovered that the best-reviewed nominee never wins, along with the ones that make less than the average gross of all the nominees combined. This knocks "Babel" out of the race and pits "The Departed" against "Little Miss Sunshine."

Matt Damon and Leonardo DiCaprio with hats in "The Departed."

Best Director
Martin Scorsese.

All signs point that this is going to be his year (more so than the other million times that statement’s been made). And what if another nominee (probably that Iñárritu guy) swoops in? People will be angry, more Hitchcock comparisons will be made, Scorsese will make a quip and then go back to work.

Martin Scorsese in a "Departed" powwow.

Best Actor and Best Actress
Statistically, Leonardo DiCaprio has a lead on the Best Actor race for "Blood Diamond," but no one is expecting him to win. Peter O’Toole, always the rascal, might pull off an upset. But based on the strong reader and industry insider buzz, it’s hard to imagined the award won’t be going to Forest Whitaker for "The Last King of Scotland."

As for Best Actress, statistics argue that Meryl Streep in "The Devil Wears Prada" has an advantage. Everything else is pointing towards heavy favorite Helen Mirren for "The Queen."

Peter O’Toole is old in "Venus."

Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress
The Supporting races are the the most unpredictable ones this year. The Envelope recently bumped "Dreamgirls"’ Eddie Murphy down, replacing him with "Little Miss Sunshine"’s Alan Arkin as favorite to take home the statue. But blog readers want Murphy to win and the numbers also slightly favor him.

Jennifer Hudson looks to be a shoo-in for her performance in "Dreamgirls." But the buzz has been almost too good; something’s got to backfire at some point. Abigail Breslin from "Little Miss Sunshine" seems an unlikely contender, but the Academy does like to hand out the tot votes (Haley Joel Osment’s nom for "The Sixth Sense" and Anna Paquin’s win for "The Piano" being recent examples).

Jennifer Hudson hitting high notes in "Dreamgirls."

Best Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay
"Babel" and "The Queen" are contenders, though the talk of the town is that the award’ll probably go to "Little Miss Sunshine." Recently, this category’s become the designated play area for quirky indie films ("The Squid and the Whale" and "The Royal Tenenbaums" anyone?). "Lost in Translation" won Best Screenplay but lost Best Picture in 2003, so if "Little Miss Sunshine" doesn’t nab Best Picture, it’ll get this consolation prize.

And Best Adapted Screenplay? Reader and Hollywood buzz and historical statistics are in favor for "The Departed." And why not? "The Departed"’s popular with critics, audiences, and picky "Infernal Affairs" fans. And it was written by only one guy (compare with "Children of Men"’s and "Borat"’s five apiece) so we won’t have to sit through a really long acceptance speech.

Steve Carrell and Toni Collette action pose for "Little Miss Sunshine."

Best Foreign Language Film
A strong crop have been nominated this year, including "Water," "Days of Glory," and "The Lives of Others," all Certified Fresh. But the award is likely to go to the critically lauded, record breaking "Pan’s Labyrinth." Since a "Pan" win for Best Screenplay isn’t going to happen, Academy members are going to want to pay their respects and dogpile the votes here.

A charming "Labyrinth" inhabitant.

Best Animated Feature
For the first time in maybe ever, Pixar doesn’t look to be a sure-fire bet. "Cars," despite being Certified Fresh and grossing nearly $250 million, in relative Pixar terms, it wasn’t a huge success like "Toy Story 2," "Finding Nemo," or "The Incredibles." The other big nominee, "Happy Feet," however, was a surprise hit, much like that other penguin movie. Academy voters are probably still thinking fondly about "Happy Feet," while "Cars" has the Ghost of Pixar Movies Past looming over it.

Owen Wilson as an unhappy car.

Best Documentary Feature
Each of the four major nominees have big positives going for them. "Iraq in Fragments" is timely and "Deliver Us From Evil" has a perfect Tomatometer. "An Inconvenient Truth"
may win on the sheer number of people who have seen it as opposed to the other nominees. "Jesus Camp" was an underground, word-of-mouth hit and actually resulted in the closure of the titular camp. You can’t buy better buzz and publicity than that.

Solidarity in "Iraq in Fragments."

Source: FilmJerk, The Envelope, Vizu Answers

Tag Cloud

Musicals Certified Fresh ESPN psychological thriller animated Syfy Teen toronto PaleyFest Paramount Network romance Nominations harry potter Sundance TV TV renewals sports 2020 Stephen King Baby Yoda Logo dramedy facebook technology ITV YouTube Premium Horror San Diego Comic-Con Western Lifetime sequels Writers Guild of America First Reviews Superheroes dogs disaster Nat Geo war Black History Month Super Bowl Apple TV Plus thriller Fox News 2018 Netflix Photos X-Men FX on Hulu Adult Swim hispanic dragons blaxploitation Cannes Crunchyroll President superhero Disney+ Disney Plus historical drama golden globes cancelled TV shows movies concert DirecTV zombies theme song renewed TV shows Hear Us Out strong female leads twilight reviews Comedy Central SDCC American Society of Cinematographers crime thriller singing competition Ovation composers indiana jones Infographic Star Wars TBS Calendar Winter TV Turner Amazon Studios Tubi laika child's play Drama RT21 name the review Schedule Academy Awards true crime Box Office a nightmare on elm street El Rey medical drama 2015 Marathons doctor who Red Carpet Epix Television Critics Association Emmy Nominations The Witch Freeform documentary Lionsgate werewolf Interview cartoon Disney Channel dc Holiday Music Comic Book BBC One Binge Guide cooking video on demand spain festival Rocketman DC Comics Marvel Television cats police drama dceu BET Quiz HBO 71st Emmy Awards binge nature HBO Go See It Skip It television films TCA Awards CBS All Access Reality Competition MTV finale Cartoon Network unscripted WGN best Bravo Sundance toy story Turner Classic Movies Brie Larson book IFC Films TIFF Disney streaming service Lifetime Christmas movies cinemax Pop 2017 Mindy Kaling Peacock obituary Hallmark Christmas movies RT History TV south america Sneak Peek zero dark thirty Apple TV+ scorecard classics parents Classic Film Reality Shudder BBC Columbia Pictures Anna Paquin Pride Month DGA Rom-Com Mary poppins criterion A24 political drama Chernobyl VICE CW Seed Film Festival Podcast green book VH1 Tumblr serial killer YouTube worst science fiction Nickelodeon 45 natural history Captain marvel discovery CMT Pirates FX Martial Arts Spring TV DC Universe VOD sitcom 72 Emmy Awards Pixar E3 Britbox Spike tv talk Heroines 20th Century Fox Mary Tyler Moore Disney Plus robots Women's History Month CNN miniseries streaming Esquire politics Arrowverse Elton John crime drama OWN Starz SundanceTV Animation Grammys Tarantino DC streaming service TV Land 2016 Paramount ghosts news Marvel Studios foreign transformers screenings venice universal monsters Sundance Now Film Television Academy award winner ratings Discovery Channel Election canceled Mary Poppins Returns elevated horror richard e. Grant Food Network canceled TV shows Emmys worst movies aliens period drama stand-up comedy Acorn TV batman biography game show series Cosplay The Arrangement Countdown SXSW Opinion Song of Ice and Fire Winners christmas movies Fall TV cancelled diversity spider-man Black Mirror reboot halloween TCA Winter 2020 Shondaland comedies Crackle independent Fantasy WarnerMedia Endgame Awards Lucasfilm Trivia cops asian-american Universal what to watch Travel Channel docudrama Comics on TV Trailer TNT Masterpiece History directors critics based on movie The CW PBS CBS Kids & Family hollywood nfl HBO Max FOX franchise Mystery IFC Hulu ABC First Look YA Dark Horse Comics GIFs Apple blockbuster Oscars Holidays Showtime Thanksgiving YouTube Red cancelled television Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt adaptation Hallmark spinoff TCA 2017 Premiere Dates dark Funimation casting Toys comic Comedy comics Sony Pictures TruTV mockumentary video A&E Action 007 AMC Video Games Star Trek LGBT emmy awards Vudu ABC Family FXX PlayStation Ellie Kemper Avengers Year in Review crossover movie Pet Sematary breaking bad Amazon hist Tomatazos comiccon rotten movies we love festivals GoT game of thrones Walt Disney Pictures romantic comedy latino crime Polls and Games Rocky spanish language Creative Arts Emmys The Walking Dead spy thriller Ghostbusters social media Netflix Christmas movies MSNBC satire football Best and Worst APB Chilling Adventures of Sabrina sequel OneApp witnail justice league cancelled TV series USA 21st Century Fox Superheroe nbcuniversal stop motion children's TV 2019 screen actors guild zombie quibi Rock travel Watching Series Mudbound documentaries supernatural TCM 24 frames Spectrum Originals adventure talk show Marvel cults BAFTA cars Biopics Set visit indie Family Warner Bros. Country Christmas National Geographic GLAAD all-time kids jamie lee curtis Extras Amazon Prime joker psycho USA Network The Purge rotten stoner space die hard Musical boxoffice vampires Pop TV sag awards versus Disney 4/20 E! Amazon Prime Video remakes anthology teaser Trophy Talk chucky NYCC NBC TCA New York Comic Con Valentine's Day LGBTQ Sci-Fi mutant fast and furious BET Awards anime Summer TLC scary movies MCU Character Guide slashers revenge BBC America free movies mission: impossible Awards Tour