Oscar Night Approaches; Who Will Win? Our Predictions Inside!

by | February 22, 2007 | Comments

There’s two ways to predict the Oscars: (1) dissect the awards buzz, attempting to get a feel for the fickle machinations of the Academy voter. Or (2) use your powers of geek math to crunch box office numbers and awards statistics for some cold, hard facts. With both methods in full swing, here’s a rundown of the Internet’s major Oscar predictions.

Best Picture
As usual, the nominees have settled into their niches: two big flicks ("The Departed" and "Babel"), one major underdog ("Little Miss Sunshine"), and two wallflowers ("The Queen" and "Letters from Iwo Jima"). FilmJerk, having combed the last 28 years of Oscar winners for meaningful statistics, posits "The Departed" has history on its side. The Envelope, L.A. Times’ one-stop hub for Hollywood buzz, agrees.

But it ain’t over yet. After polling readers from over 20 blogs, Vizu Answers reveals that 54 percent believe "Babel" will emerge victorious. And in our own unofficial Rotten Tomatoes research of the past 15 or so Oscar ceremonies, we discovered that the best-reviewed nominee never wins, along with the ones that make less than the average gross of all the nominees combined. This knocks "Babel" out of the race and pits "The Departed" against "Little Miss Sunshine."


Matt Damon and Leonardo DiCaprio with hats in "The Departed."

Best Director
Martin Scorsese.

All signs point that this is going to be his year (more so than the other million times that statement’s been made). And what if another nominee (probably that Iñárritu guy) swoops in? People will be angry, more Hitchcock comparisons will be made, Scorsese will make a quip and then go back to work.


Martin Scorsese in a "Departed" powwow.

Best Actor and Best Actress
Statistically, Leonardo DiCaprio has a lead on the Best Actor race for "Blood Diamond," but no one is expecting him to win. Peter O’Toole, always the rascal, might pull off an upset. But based on the strong reader and industry insider buzz, it’s hard to imagined the award won’t be going to Forest Whitaker for "The Last King of Scotland."

As for Best Actress, statistics argue that Meryl Streep in "The Devil Wears Prada" has an advantage. Everything else is pointing towards heavy favorite Helen Mirren for "The Queen."


Peter O’Toole is old in "Venus."

Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress
The Supporting races are the the most unpredictable ones this year. The Envelope recently bumped "Dreamgirls"’ Eddie Murphy down, replacing him with "Little Miss Sunshine"’s Alan Arkin as favorite to take home the statue. But blog readers want Murphy to win and the numbers also slightly favor him.

Jennifer Hudson looks to be a shoo-in for her performance in "Dreamgirls." But the buzz has been almost too good; something’s got to backfire at some point. Abigail Breslin from "Little Miss Sunshine" seems an unlikely contender, but the Academy does like to hand out the tot votes (Haley Joel Osment’s nom for "The Sixth Sense" and Anna Paquin’s win for "The Piano" being recent examples).


Jennifer Hudson hitting high notes in "Dreamgirls."

Best Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay
"Babel" and "The Queen" are contenders, though the talk of the town is that the award’ll probably go to "Little Miss Sunshine." Recently, this category’s become the designated play area for quirky indie films ("The Squid and the Whale" and "The Royal Tenenbaums" anyone?). "Lost in Translation" won Best Screenplay but lost Best Picture in 2003, so if "Little Miss Sunshine" doesn’t nab Best Picture, it’ll get this consolation prize.

And Best Adapted Screenplay? Reader and Hollywood buzz and historical statistics are in favor for "The Departed." And why not? "The Departed"’s popular with critics, audiences, and picky "Infernal Affairs" fans. And it was written by only one guy (compare with "Children of Men"’s and "Borat"’s five apiece) so we won’t have to sit through a really long acceptance speech.


Steve Carrell and Toni Collette action pose for "Little Miss Sunshine."

Best Foreign Language Film
A strong crop have been nominated this year, including "Water," "Days of Glory," and "The Lives of Others," all Certified Fresh. But the award is likely to go to the critically lauded, record breaking "Pan’s Labyrinth." Since a "Pan" win for Best Screenplay isn’t going to happen, Academy members are going to want to pay their respects and dogpile the votes here.


A charming "Labyrinth" inhabitant.

Best Animated Feature
For the first time in maybe ever, Pixar doesn’t look to be a sure-fire bet. "Cars," despite being Certified Fresh and grossing nearly $250 million, in relative Pixar terms, it wasn’t a huge success like "Toy Story 2," "Finding Nemo," or "The Incredibles." The other big nominee, "Happy Feet," however, was a surprise hit, much like that other penguin movie. Academy voters are probably still thinking fondly about "Happy Feet," while "Cars" has the Ghost of Pixar Movies Past looming over it.


Owen Wilson as an unhappy car.

Best Documentary Feature
Each of the four major nominees have big positives going for them. "Iraq in Fragments" is timely and "Deliver Us From Evil" has a perfect Tomatometer. "An Inconvenient Truth"
may win on the sheer number of people who have seen it as opposed to the other nominees. "Jesus Camp" was an underground, word-of-mouth hit and actually resulted in the closure of the titular camp. You can’t buy better buzz and publicity than that.


Solidarity in "Iraq in Fragments."

Source: FilmJerk, The Envelope, Vizu Answers

Tag Cloud

comedies documentary disaster Fox News YouTube Premium scorecard Black History Month foreign Year in Review 93rd Oscars Star Wars Celebration comics political drama CW Seed lord of the rings AMC Plus NYCC PlayStation dceu Marathons 78th Annual Golden Globe Awards batman Lucasfilm TruTV BBC America Winter TV El Rey hispanic Lifetime Christmas movies blockbusters young adult Emmy Nominations fresh natural history kids halloween tv TBS trophy science fiction Captain marvel Red Carpet anime popular period drama superhero TCA Winter 2020 latino Hear Us Out Showtime Lifetime Bravo DC Comics james bond Amazon Prime Video women unscripted Hallmark Christmas movies 1990s 45 cancelled television OneApp psychological thriller vs. anthology discovery Thanksgiving blaxploitation dragons CNN thriller international art house mockumentary TCA scary MCU Britbox Disney Plus dreamworks debate worst movies Legendary DC Universe Amazon Native docuseries mcc SXSW summer preview Crunchyroll The Arrangement child's play video basketball Fargo book Food Network adventure marvel comics comic books Marvel Television game of thrones festivals video on demand BAFTA Opinion Elton John Chernobyl critics transformers worst Disney streaming service game show Country The Walt Disney Company theme song prank Image Comics spider-verse Trivia Comic Book canceled BET Awards First Reviews Spike GIFs Focus Features 99% social media Ghostbusters cancelled TV series Acorn TV Comics on TV A24 Comic-Con@Home 2021 History The Purge DirecTV leaderboard reviews psycho Binge Guide rotten Countdown critic resources spain justice league trailers comiccon green book SXSW 2022 Mystery Superheroe Walt Disney Pictures A&E strong female leads crossover Instagram Live BBC One mob MTV casting football chucky Mary Poppins Returns Western Mary Tyler Moore MSNBC TV renewals Pop Logo VICE emmy awards Vudu CMT TV One canceled TV shows 79th Golden Globes Awards SDCC screen actors guild Wes Anderson saw indiana jones politics hispanic heritage month adaptation documentaries Spectrum Originals Interview animated 2019 DC streaming service laika monster movies 2015 Song of Ice and Fire remakes ghosts Travel Channel target scene in color rom-coms miniseries royal family heist movie CBS aapi Extras TNT joker Rocky Paramount The Walking Dead Infographic TV Best Actress Film Festival summer TV comic crime thriller black Pet Sematary golden globes target YouTube suspense Cosplay Podcast deadpool Apple TV Plus Sneak Peek Summer mutant live event concert australia Hallmark BBC FX on Hulu Set visit Fox Searchlight 73rd Emmy Awards scene in color TIFF Masterpiece boxoffice 2018 Valentine's Day 71st Emmy Awards tv talk richard e. Grant Music Premiere Dates Pop TV doctor who Amazon Prime south america Watching Series VH1 Avengers FXX OWN Mary poppins what to watch toronto Fall TV Freeform Certified Fresh Tubi adenture TV Land Oscars Ovation Pirates Rom-Com renewed TV shows Columbia Pictures Paramount Plus stop motion X-Men sequels biopic teaser universal monsters Arrowverse action-comedy scene in color film series japan Toys award winner all-time HBO Max new star wars movies PBS nbcuniversal Classic Film Apple Turner Classic Movies comic book movie Oscar 4/20 summer TV preview streaming movies 2017 cartoon series king arthur Netflix cooking versus blockbuster police drama Writers Guild of America spanish language space Crackle war E3 Television Academy free movies name the review ID Nickelodeon finale slasher classics independent Rocketman french Dark Horse Comics President Neflix black comedy comic book movies Kids & Family Sundance Now king kong Calendar japanese Winners new york Ellie Kemper Tokyo Olympics sopranos Holidays kaiju Tags: Comedy rt labs critics edition Film dc Pacific Islander nfl 21st Century Fox posters franchise San Diego Comic-Con HFPA RT History Sundance Discovery Channel IMDb TV PaleyFest Musical a nightmare on elm street aliens Sony Pictures diversity Rock Mindy Kaling Best Actor Disney Channel zombie boxing Superheroes LGBT 2016 RT21 witnail rt archives archives Nominations television talk show crime drama streamig cats christmas movies FX stand-up comedy Syfy cancelled TV shows marvel cinematic universe travel WarnerMedia medical drama criterion Brie Larson ITV YA Hulu godzilla gangster IFC Musicals live action historical drama new zealand nature Academy Awards robots sitcom kong biography high school dogs Television Critics Association MGM quibi wonder woman GLAAD Comedy New York Comic Con The CW USA Network ViacomCBS jamie lee curtis Anna Paquin BET TV movies Reality Competition Disney+ Disney Plus mission: impossible Exclusive Video TCM cancelled YouTube Red vampires Photos WGN news Pride Month Star Trek Character Guide Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt Sci-Fi Tumblr Netflix Christmas movies FOX Marvel Studios scene in color series Endgame DGA Women's History Month Pixar Lionsgate Video Games Epix venice South by Southwest Film Festival italian National Geographic 24 frames Cannes Election sag awards technology festival E! breaking bad pirates of the caribbean cars Apple TV+ hist Geeked Week NBC Best Picture GoT cults sports spider-man streaming The Academy razzies jurassic park ratings know your critic Schedule halloween Awards Tour Quiz singing competition See It Skip It fast and furious Teen scary movies Super Bowl TLC screenings First Look VOD spy thriller ABC Signature Chilling Adventures of Sabrina 2020 twilight American Society of Cinematographers Comedy Central die hard indie genre Drama children's TV Indigenous Baby Yoda slashers best NBA Spring TV zombies APB Sundance TV Tomatazos cinemax 72 Emmy Awards Esquire Funimation Prime Video 90s revenge Shondaland broadcast Box Office crime sequel Tarantino dramedy AMC Universal Pictures directors Emmys Heroines satire Christmas Reality films elevated horror romantic comedy supernatural feel good rt labs The Witch Starz composers golden globe awards Stephen King Broadway Awards spinoff obi wan serial killer docudrama Shudder IFC Films legend Family based on movie Martial Arts true crime stoner 2021 USA Adult Swim Action reboot Best and Worst rotten movies we love Peacock ABC 20th Century Fox Sony Trailer Animation HBO Polls and Games zero dark thirty Paramount Pictures Grammys werewolf TCA Awards interviews Biopics Universal binge olympics asian-american dark Hollywood Foreign Press Association ABC Family Paramount Network facebook movies HBO Go Trophy Talk Cartoon Network TCA 2017 Warner Bros. Fantasy superman 94th Oscars Turner ESPN cops romance Holiday SundanceTV LGBTQ hidden camera Disney Amazon Studios CBS All Access Black Mirror Horror toy story telelvision spanish Creative Arts Emmys dexter Mudbound movie hollywood Alien Star Wars Marvel parents 007 Nat Geo book adaptation Best Director harry potter obituary