Box Office Guru

Box Office Guru Wrapup: Ride Along Cruises To Number One

Lone Survivor and The Nut Job round out the top three.

by | January 19, 2014 | Comments

Kevin Hart and Ice Cube delivered the laughs with their new comedy Ride Along and if estimates hold, it will break the record for the biggest Martin Luther King holiday opening ever. The Universal hit grossed an estimated $41.2M over the Friday-to-Sunday portion of the long frame and the studio is projecting about $47.8M over the four-day period. That would break the old records of $40.1M and $46.1M set in 2008 by Cloverfield. In fact, it would also break the record for the biggest debut in all of January which the low-budget sci-fi pic also has held.

Cube has enjoyed numerous box office hits over the past two decades, but Ride Along‘s success can be attributed more to Hart who gets second billing here. The fast-rising funnyman boasts an enormous fan base (almost 10 million followers on Twitter) and his stand-up comedy concert films have done gangbusters over the past couple of years. His supporting turn in Think Like A Man certainly helped that film open to a stellar $33.6M but with Ride Along, he has his first real lead role in a major studio release. Also helping to sell it were an intriguing concept (guy must impress his fiancée’s cop brother) and a powerful marketing push. Hart even announced surprise pop-ins at various theaters.

Studio research showed that the audience was 57% female, 54% 25 and older, and 80% black or Latino. Over three days, the average was a fantastic $15,471. Reviews were mostly negative, but Ride Along did not enter the marketplace as a fine work of art. It was sold as a funny two-hour good time at the movies and paying moviegoers got exactly what they expected as evidenced by the solid A CinemaScore grade.

Over the last two decades, numerous films led by black casts have generated muscular openings and a large number have shattered industry expectations. But only a few have opened to $30M+ and rarely have they gotten to $40M+, especially when they are not sequels. It opened better than all but one of Will Ferrell’s hit comedies. Hart hopes to strike again next month with his next comedy About Last Night which opens on Valentine’s Day.

Universal controlled the number two spot too with last week’s champ Lone Survivor which dropped a reasonable 39% to an estimated $23.2M for a healthy cume to date of $74M. The last studio to take the top two spots on the box office chart on the same weekend was, interestingly enough, Universal last June when it opened The Purge on top bumping Fast & Furious 6 into second place.

Opening well in third was the new animated comedy The Nut Job with an estimated $20.6M from 3,427 locations for a good $5,996 average. Kids looking to move on from the monster hit Frozen have had almost nothing for them since Thanksgiving. They responded here and Open Road now has a toon hit on its hands with two more weeks of no new competition until the February 7 debut of The Lego Movie.

Paramount suffered a troubling start for the latest reboot of its spy franchise with Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit opening in fourth with an estimated $17.2M marking by far the worst performance in the Tom Clancy series which includes fives films across nearly a quarter-century. Averaging a mediocre $5,078 from 3,387 locations, the PG-13 film debuting Chris Pine as the fourth actor to play the title character just did not create much excitement with moviegoing audiences. The last film in the franchise was 2002’s The Sum of All Fears with Ben Affleck which bowed to a strong $31.2M that summer.

Looking only at the opening weekend gross, Shadow Recruit tied the $17.2M of the first Jack Ryan film The Hunt for Red October from March 1990 for the lowest in franchise history. However, that film with Alec Baldwin and Sean Connery debuted in only 1,225 theaters and ticket prices were half of what they are today. The new pic even offered 300 runs on higher-priced IMAX screens. Reviews for the new $60M-budgeted Ryan were mixed and the CinemaScore grade was a lackluster B. Despite the casting of Pine, teens and young adults took no interest and the film did best with older males who have many other big films competing for their attention, especially Wahlberg’s Lone Survivor which has been overperforming. Studio research showed the audience was 52% male and a whopping 85% over 25.

Disney’s runaway smash Frozen cracked the all-time Top 30 list this weekend after its estimated $12M take in its eighth round of wide release. That boosted the total to $332.6M putting it right at number 30 on the all-time domestic blockbusters list right behind Alice in Wonderland‘s $334.2M from 2010. A $24.6M gross overseas this weekend lifted the international gross to $426.5M and the global tally to a stellar $759.1M on its way to breaking $800M next weekend.

With its incredible starpower and awards buzz, American Hustle led all the newly minted Best Picture Oscar nominees with an estimated $10.6M for a hearty 28% jump despite losing 425 theaters. Over the past seven days, the Sony release won the Golden Globe for Best Picture – Musical or Comedy, the Best Acting Ensemble prize at the Critics Choice Awards, and the top SAG honor for best cast. Add in the great reviews and ample star wattage and Hustle has the most mainstream commercial appeal among the top Academy Award nominees at this moment. Cume to date is $116.4M and $150M+ is possible.

Not scaring up too much cash was the new horror entry Devil’s Due with an estimated $8.5M from 2,544 locations for a mild $3,341 average. The Fox release earned poor reviews and received a big thumbs down from the paying public with its D+ grade from CinemaScore.

It didn’t earn a Best Picture nod from the Academy, but August: Osage County‘s two big acting nominations for superstars Meryl Streep and Julia Roberts helped it stay in the top ten, as did a doubling of screens. The Weinstein Co. pic took in an estimated $7.6M, up 6%, for a total of $18.2M so far. Best Picture nominee The Wolf of Wall Street slipped 15% to an estimated $7.5M giving Paramount $90.3M. Disney’s Saving Mr. Banks missed out on a top nomination and suffered a larger fall dropping 37% to an estimated $4.1M and $75.4M overall.

Below the top ten, Oscar nominees for Best Picture all tried to turn those nods into extra box office gold with some expanding and seeing higher grosses and others staying in roughly the same theaters but posting great holds. Among those not expanding, Her declined by 24% to an estimated $4.1M, Philomena dipped 6% to an estimated $1.3M, and Nebraska inched up 6% to an estimated $940,000. Modest cumes are $15M, $24.1M, and $9.7M.

Three contenders that opened in October and mostly concluded their runs returned to national release this weekend with their studios mounting re-expansions. Gravity rose to 944 locations and grossed an estimated $1.9M, 12 Years A Slave was in 761 sites and made an estimated $1.5M, and Captain Phillips took in an estimated $550,000 from 903 playdates. Totals are $258.4M, $40.6M, and $105.7M. While much attention is put on extra box office a film collects after earning key Oscar nods, it needs to be noted that these films must spend additional funds in order to play this game during awards season and stay in national release. Additional weeks of national advertising is not cheap.

The top ten films grossed an estimated $152.5M which was up a healthy 42% from last year when Mama opened at number one with $28.4M over the Friday-to-Sunday portion of MLK weekend; and up 44% from 2012’s holiday when Contraband debuted in the top spot with $24.3M.

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