Weekend Box Office

Box Office Guru Wrapup: Cloverfield Crushes Records at #1

'Twas a monster mash at the box office.

by | January 20, 2008 | Comments

Two not-so-pricey films, one aimed at guys and the other for the gals, rocked
North American multiplexes leading the marketplace to the biggest Martin Luther
King holiday weekend ever. Most holdovers attracted solid numbers too and helped
the top ten films surge to nearly $130M over the Friday-to-Sunday portion of the
four-day holiday frame. Among new releases, the sci-fi thriller Cloverfield
bowed at number one breaking the January opening weekend record, the
wedding-themed comedy 27 Dresses
took the bridesmaid spot, and the heist comedy Mad Money made off with only
enough for a disappointing seventh place finish.

Following months of hype and anticipation, Paramount’s monster flick Cloverfield
arrived and generated monster sales grossing an estimated $41M in its first
three days of release. Directed by Matt Reeves
and produced by J.J. Abrams,
the PG-13 film averaged a brutal $12,020 from 3,411 theaters and broke the
eleven-year-old record for the biggest opening weekend gross for a film debuting
in January. The Special Edition re-release of Star Wars held that record since
1997 when it launched in 2,104 locations to the tune of $35.9M and a scorching
$17,066 average. At today’s ticket prices however, those figures would be more
than $53M and $25,000, respectively.

Still, Cloverfield delivered muscular numbers especially for a film
with no well-known stars and a reported production cost of only $25M. The trim
84-minute feature was shot from the perspective of a personal camcorder and
tells the story of a group of friends that must fight to survive when a giant
beast attacks New York City. Studio research showed that young men were the
driving force. Males made up 60% of the audience while 55% were under the age of
25. Critics were mostly pleased and gave good reviews.

Cloverfield also set a new opening weekend record for the MLK holiday
frame beating the $28.6M three-day tally of 2002’s Black Hawk Down which
expanded nationally after three weeks of limited play. Even adjusting for
inflation, Hawk’s bow would be $33M+ at today’s ticket prices giving Cloverfield
a clear victory. Distributors rarely program their big-ticket films into the
first month of the year.

The monster movie began its marketing campaign last summer with a mysterious
teaser in front of Paramount’s sci-fi gargantuan Transformers. Curiosity
led to endless online hype as the filmmakers purposely withheld key information
on the film. Fans became intrigued and attacked the multiplexes on Friday
spending $16.9M – the biggest opening day gross ever in the month of January.
The disaster pic then dropped by a steep 19% on Saturday which was
understandable since upfront demand and grosses from Thursday night midnight
shows beefed up the Friday take. The studio estimated that Cloverfield
would drop by only 25% on Sunday to $10.3M. Given Sunday’s NFL championship
games which will distract millions of men, final grosses could see the three-day
figure go down. Most other studios incorporated 30-35% Sunday declines into
their weekend estimates.


Opening with strength in the runnerup spot was the romantic comedy 27 Dresses
with an estimated $22.4M from 3,057 theaters for a sparkling $7,336 average. The
PG-13 film is anchored by Katherine Heigl
who proved her box office pull with this powerful debut. Her last film Knocked Up
was a runaway hit last summer opening to $30.7M before ending with $148.8M, but
was sold more on the appeal of director Judd Apatow.
Heigl’s Dresses launch is in the same neighborhood as romantic comedy
bows from the more established Kate Hudson. How To Lose A Guy in 10 Days
with Matthew McConaughey
debuted to $23.8M in 2003 while 2006’s You, Me and Dupree with Owen
Wilson and Matt Dillon opened to $21.5M. Dresses boasted weaker male
starpower with James Marsden and Edward Burns putting even more pressure on
Heigl to deliver a paying crowd.

The audience for the $30M-budgeted 27 Dresses was overwhelmingly female.
Studio research showed that a remarkable 75% of the crowd consisted of women,
but the audience was evenly split between those over and under 25. Fox made the
tactical move of offering sneak previews not once but twice over the past few
weeks, first on Thursday December 27 during the holiday season and then again
last Sunday January 13 when men were pre-occupied with football playoffs. The
studio credits the sneaks with spreading positive word-of-mouth leading up to
the opening frame. Reviews were not too encouraging which made the sneaks even
more important as 27 Dresses stands as a crowd-pleaser, not a critic-pleaser.

Cloverfield and 27 Dresses combined to inject $63.4M in new
business into the marketplace and accounted for half of all ticket sales spent
on the top ten movies.

Following its top spot showing last weekend in its first frame of nationwide
release, the geezer buddy flick The Bucket List
starring Jack Nicholson
and Morgan Freeman 
enjoyed a strong hold slipping only 22% to an estimated $15.2M. Warner Bros. has
banked $42.7M to date and looks headed for the vicinity of $90M with an outside
chance of hitting nine-digit territory.

The teen comedy Juno
fell 25% to an estimated $10.3M in its seventh weekend and placed fourth for the
frame. Fox Searchlight’s top-grossing film ever has reached $85.4M and should
cross the century mark by the end of the month. Following in fifth was Disney’s
adventure blockbuster National Treasure: Book of Secrets
with an estimated $8.1M, down 28%, for a total of $198M. By the end of the week,
the Nicolas Cage
actioner will become the tenth film released in 2007 to break the $200M mark.

The Ice Cube
comedy First Sunday
took a beating in its second weekend tumbling 56% to an estimated $7.8M
suffering the worst drop in the top ten. Budgeted at $20M, the Sony title has
looted $28.5M in ten days and should finish with $40-45M.

Another comedy about likable characters stealing money followed close behind.
Overture Films launched its first release Mad Money
this weekend and settled for a mediocre seventh-place showing with an estimated
$7.7M. Playing in 2,470 locations, the PG-13 film starring Diane Keaton, Queen Latifah, and Katie Holmes
as Federal Reserve Bank employees who steal cash from their work averaged a
not-so-impressive $3,126. Reviews were mostly negative. The actresses were on
the campaign trail last week popping up on every talk show that would have them,
but moviegoers were not too thrilled about spending their greenbacks.

Kidpic sensation Alvin and the Chipmunks
continued to dazzle the family audience grossing an estimated $7M in its sixth
weekend, down only 25%, for a cume to date of $196.4M. The Fox hit should scurry
past the $200M mark next weekend.

Fellow sixth-weekender I Am Legend
dropped 38% to an estimated $5.1M to boost its towering total to $247.7M. The Will Smith
sci-fi thriller now sits at number 45 on the all-time domestic blockbusters list
just behind Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban which grossed
$249.4M in 2004. Overseas, the last man on Earth took in an estimated $28.7M
vaulting the international total to a stellar $262.4M allowing the global tally
to smash through the half-billion barrier. Worldwide gross is now $510.1M and
climbing.

Rounding out the top ten was the Golden Globe winner for Best Picture – Drama
Atonement
which
climbed 13% to an estimated $4.8M in its seventh session. Focus added another
341 playdates this weekend to take advantage of the added exposure of the Globe
wins (it also won for Original Score) and raised the sum to $31.9M. Atonement
has also grossed $50M overseas for a global tally of $81.9M thus far.


Opening to mild results outside of the Top 20 was Woody Allen’s latest film
Cassandra’s
Dream
which bowed to just $400,000 from 107 theaters for a lukewarm
$3,738 average, according to estimates. The Weinstein Co. release starring Ewan
McGregor and Colin Farrell as brothers on a killing spree was panned by critics.
The distributor also reported a four-day holiday estimate of $501,000.

A trio of films fell from the top ten this weekend. The Warner Bros. thriller One Missed Call
dropped 53% to an estimated $2.8M for a 17-day cume of $24.4M. Look for a $30M
final for the horror remake. The animated adventure The Pirates Who Don’t Do Anything
grossed an estimated $2.8M, off 34%, and has collected just $7.7M in its first
ten days. The Universal release should end with just $15M dipping well below the
$25.6M of its big brother Jonah: A VeggieTales Movie
from 2002.
 




With the arrival of 27 Dresses, the female audience for
P.S. I Love You

disappeared prompting the Hilary Swank-Gerard Butler romance to tumble by 61% to
an estimated $1.9M. With a solid $50.4M grossed to date, the Warner Bros. title
should conclude with around $55M.

Paramount Vantage expanded its critically-acclaimed oilman saga
There Will Be
Blood
once again and continued to see strong results in new parts of
North America. The Daniel
Day-Lewis
pic widened from 129 to 389 theaters and grossed an estimated
$3.1M climbing from number seventeen up to the number eleven slot for the
weekend. The average was a solid $8,023 while the total climbed to $8.2M.

Blood will expand further this Friday to between 700 and 850 locations in
a strategic move to capitalize on its expected Academy Award nominations which
will be announced on Tuesday morning. The Paul Thomas Anderson film and fellow
Vantage-Miramax co-production No Country For Old Men from the Coen
brothers are seen as having a lock on nominations in the Best Picture race.
Among the many films vying for the other three nods in the top race are
Michael Clayton
, Juno, American Gangster, Atonement,
and the French-language drama The Diving Bell and the Butterfly from
American director Julian Schnabel.



The top ten films grossed an estimated $129.4M over the Friday-to-Sunday span
which was up a stunning 43% from last year’s MLK frame when Stomp the Yard
opened at number one with $21.8M; and up a potent 40% from 2006’s holiday when
Glory Road debuted in the top spot with $13.6M.

Author: Gitesh Pandya, www.BoxOfficeGuru.com